Transcript Regions - Open Science Framework

9th Biennial Emergy Research Conference
UFL - January 7-9, 2016
The input-state-output sustainability framework
at the sub-national level: data collection, emergy
evaluation and categorization of the 20 Italian regions.
Federico M. Pulselli, Luca Coscieme, Fabrizio Saladini,
Alessandro Sani, Simone Bastianoni
Ecodynamics Group,
Dept. of Earth, Environmental and Physical Sciences
University of Siena, ITALY
e-mail: [email protected]
Representing sustainability
economy
society
environment
The input-state-output indicator framework
Organization
Structure
Diversity
Work capacity
Empc = S Ei·UEVi / popn
i
(e.g. Emergy)
Environmental basis
Material consistency
Equality/inequality
GDPpc = GDPn / popn
(e.g. GINI Index
of income distribution)
(e.g. Gross Domestic Product)
The role of society
Equality as a basis
Form of inclusion
Economic result
What did happen before?
ITALY
20 regional administrations
(five have special statutes)
109 provinces
More than 8000 municipalities
The importance of the investigations at the subnational level:
1.
2.
Highlighting peculiarities and characteristics of local/regional systems (not
visible at the national level);
Providing information for the national (upper-level) policies, extracted from
assessment and comparisons of sub-systems.
Gini
low
high
GDP pc
high
low
high
low
The cube
and sub-cubes
Emergy flow pc
NOTE:
High and low values depend on the comparison of the value of each indicator with the median
value calculated on the basis of available data
Data Sources
(for a bottom-up approach)
Regional GDP
Regional Gini Index
Some Regional data for
Emergy evaluation
(e.g. Import flows,
average rain, etc.)
DGERM: oil (and oil derivative) bulletin
TERNA: statistics on electricity consumption
LEGAMBIENTE: data on extractive activity
… and other punctual sources
Regional GDP
•
•
North vs. South
Italy is close to the median
Regional GINI index of
income distribution
•
•
•
Partially influenced by
geography and
development level
Italy is among unequal
regions
Income distribution
(and social problems) in
metropolitan areas
Emergy evaluation at the Regional level
after Morandi et al., Ecological Modelling , 315 (2015) 12–27
• Regions are not evaluated in isolation but as subsystems of the largest system
(Italy)
• Because geographical features do not change, local renewable and local nonrenewable flows are calculated without significant changes.
• The only flow that changes is the imported flow. In fact, when a subsystem is
considered as a part of its whole system, imports from outside are a fraction of
the total outside imports to the larger system. The interactions between the
subsystems (in this case the Italian regions) do not have to be accounted for
when the larger system (Italy) is considered as the union of its subsystems.
• The main difficulties in collecting data for imports at the regional level are:
- discrepancy between the detail of national and regional data;
- values expressed in mass or money or both.
Per capita emergy flow for Italy and the regional systems
Empower aeral density
categorization
Dissipative
Score: high emergy, low Gini Index, high GDP
Regions: Veneto, Trentino-Alto Adige, EmiliaRomagna, Friuli-Venezia Giulia, Piemonte, Toscana (6)
Dissipative
Unevenly frugal
Score : low emergy, high Gini Index, low GDP
Regions: Sardegna, Basilicata, Sicilia, Campania,
Calabria (5)
Unevenly frugal
These categories represent 35mln
of inhabitants = 60% of the total
categorization
Socially distracted
Score: high emergy, high Gini Index, high GDP
Regions : Lombardia (1)
Socially Distracted
Dematerialized
Score: low emergy, low Gini Index, high GDP
Regions: Valle d'Aosta (1)
The smallest one (population, area, pop. Density)!!!
Dematerialized
categorization
Mida’s kingdom
Score: low emergy; high Gini Index, high GDP
LAZIO: influenced by the presence of Rome (74% of
regional population).
Mida’s Kingdom
Low emergy pc and high GDP pc
coexist with problematic social
conditions of metropolitan areas
(e.g. 2001-2011 Genuine Progress
Indicator for Rome)
LIGURIA: floriculture, agriculture, tourism. Industrial
activities and import flows are concentrated in
metropolitan areas and harbors (Genoa and La
Spezia that hosts the 70% of the population)
categorization
Ineffective
Score: high emergy, high Gini Index, low GDP
Regions: Molise, Puglia (2)
Ineffective
Inconsistent
Score: high emergy, low Gini Index, low GDP
Regions: Umbria (1)
Inconsistent
Evenly frugal
Score: low emergy, low Gini Index, low GDP
Regions: Marche, Abruzzo (2)
Evenly Frugal
Diversity
Valle d’Aosta
3.45E+04
2.57E+04
Lombardia
1.32E+17
Campania
0.38
1.64E+04
Campania
8.8E+16
3.37E+16
Calabria
This means that the problem
of distribution of resources,
opportunities, development
perspectives, etc. actually
exists beyond the mere level
of income distribution.
The policy action should be
also inspired by and based on
combined of information
from different viewpoints.
0.324
0.26
Friuli V.G.
Pulselli et al., Global Environmental
Change, 2015, 41-51
Relationship between resources and economic
performance
A diagonal plan exists within the cube, that highlights
the relationship between resource use (eMergia) and
economic wealth (PIL).
In this case the connection is not strong
R2 = 0,47
WHY?
IMPACT OF IMPORT
Import flow represents a large percentage of total emergy but significant
differences exist among the regions. We have estimated the 7% for
Calabria and 67% for Lombardia (representative of different attitudes
and characteristics).
The high value for Lombardia is one of the reasons why this is not
located within the “Dissipative” sub-cube or together with Lazio and
Liguria.
Properties and potentialities of the framework
> The dynamics of the flow of matter and energy that feeds the system society and
produces economic wealth is here represented. The main results concern: the correlation
between resources and GDP, the disconnection of social issues, the role of inequality, the
project of dematerialization.
> Data availability is crucial to obtain verisimilar results and design reliable policies
> The framework can be used for both cross-country (as in this case) and time-series
evaluations.
> Different triads may lead to different results. These should be considered as
complementary information.
> Emergy evaluation plays a privileged role because it is able to substantially integrate
the economic information that is often myopic.
Special thanks to the co-authors and the
partners of this project:
Luca Coscieme
Nadia Marchettini
Simone Bastianoni
Ecodynamics Group
Achille Lemmi
Gianni Betti
Laura Neri
Andrea Regoli
Antonella D’Agostino
Paul C. Sutton
Alessandro Sani
Fabrizio Saladini
Economists are the primary advisors of
governments. We need environmental scientists
with the same decisional power to face future
challenges deriving from our current model of
infinite growth on a finite planet.
Paul C. Sutton (2015 ABC interview)
… and THANK YOU OF YOUR ATTENTI
N