Transcript Education and Full Employment - World Academy of Art and Science

Education & Full Employment
Garry Jacobs
World Academy of Art & Science
“Dream of a Global Knowledge Society”
Inter-University Centre, Dubrovnik, Sept 8, 2012
Global Pop. & Employment 1950-2007
2
G20 Working Age Pop 2010-2020
• ILO projects world needs to create 600
million jobs in 10 years to create global full
employment.
• Decline in working age population in
economically advanced countries will
necessitate massive import of workers.
• World’s working age population will
increase by 440 million by 2020.
• India needs to create 30% of those jobs
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Employment & Level of Education (2009)
Employment to Population Ratio
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
-
Below upper secondary
Upper secondary and post-secondary non-tertiary
Tertiary education
Unemployment & Education (2009)
Below upper secondary
40
Upper secondary and post-secondary non-tertiary
Tertiary education
Unemployment Rate %
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
Norway Denmark
Czech
Republic
OECD Germany Hungary
average
United
States
Slovak
Republic
Estonia
Spain
Education is Key Driver of Economy
• Creates demand for new workers
• Stimulates the growth of allied sectors, such as
publishing, media, construction.
• Raises the skills and capacities of the workforce
• Postpones the entry of new workers into the
workforce
• Raises the wage expectations, incomes and
consumption patterns
• High correlation between rising levels of tertiary
enrollment and rising levels of per capita GDP.
Education & GDP/capita
Tertiary Education& GDP/c -- Korea
Tertiary Education& GDP/c -- India
Rising demand for education
• 63% of US jobs will require postsecondary
training by 2018
• US will create 14 M new jobs in 10 years, but
only for those with at least 2 years of college
• Global Job Market (McKinsey projections)
– surplus of 93 M low-skilled workers, 35 M in OECD
– shortage of 85 M high & medium skilled workers,
18 M in OECD
Education Pays
Educational Attainments 1970-2030
Global Demand for Higher Education
• Global enrollment in universities rose from
500,000 in 1900 to around 100 million in 2000.
• Raising global participation rates in higher
education to the U.S. level would require
establishment of hundreds of thousands of new
colleges and universities and the training of
millions of qualified instructors.
• For India to reach US levels
– Raise number of college students from 14M to 81M
– Create about 100,000 new colleges in India alone.
Benefits of Cutting US Drop-outs 50%
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Support 54,000 jobs in education
Purchase homes and cars $20 billion
Raise GDP by $9.6 billion by mid-career
Earn $7.6 billion more in an average year
Spend additional $5.6 billion a year
Invest additional $2 billion a year
Boost state tax revenues by $713 million a year
Raise college enrollment and graduation rate
Global e-Learning Trends
• USA & Europe dominate the global eLearning market with more than 70%
share of the revenues.
• By 2014, Asia is expected to overtake Western Europe to become the second
largest market after North America.
• There are at present 760,000 students in the US who are homeschooled
online full-time and part-time.
• The number of US students taking all their classes exclusively in a traditional
physical classroom environment is shrinking by -22.8%.
• In 2016, there will be more full-time online students in USA than students
taking all classes in physical classroom.
• 100% of Primary and Secondary Schools in Korea and Singapore offer some
type of online education already.
• In June 2011, the South Korean Education Ministry mandated that all
instructional content in all primary and secondary schools must be 100%
digital by 2015.
• By 2015, every school child in South Korea will be carrying a personal learning
device.
Global Skills Shortage (2010)
Continuous Vocational Education
• 32% of the Danish working age population
between 25 and 64 years have participated in
vocational programs, the highest in Europe.
• Participation rate exceeded 15 % in UK,
Netherlands & Slovenia in 2010.
• EU-15 average is 11%
• EU-27 average 9%.
• Most Eastern Europe countries are below 5%.
• India 5% of India’s workforce has received formal
vocational training.
Global Education Challenge
• Raise high school and college completion levels?
• Deliver low cost higher education on a global
basis?
• Raise the level of vocational skills?
• Improve the relevance of curricula to support
– Employment & Career Development
– Entrepreneurship & Self-employment
– Innovation, Original Thinking, and Individuality