Transcript ipec250_atherton_0421x

Slick States: Do Governments
Trade Aid for Oil?
Mark Noll & Blake Atherton
Overview
(1) Background
(2) Hypotheses
(3) Methodology
(4) Results
(5) Conclusion and Next Steps
Background: Oil Security
• What is energy security and why is it important?
• Tools to ensure oil security
• Is foreign aid one such tool?
Background: Foreign Aid
• What determines foreign aid?
• Traditional factors: GDP/capita, regime type,
trade exposure
• Two models: recipient need and donor interest
U.S. Foreign Aid Policy
“The predominant goal, historically and presently, has been
defense-security. A secondary goal, often related to the first in
practice, has been profitability...The least important budgetary
goal has been development — health, education, and welfare”
George Guess, 2010
The Politics of United States Foreign Aid
A Theory of Oil and Aid
H1 Oil exporting states receive more foreign aid
than non-exporters
H2 Oil-vulnerable donors give more aid than oilsecure donors
H3 Countries that house one or more international
oil companies give out more aid
Methodology
• Dependent Variable: bilateral foreign aid
(Official Development Assistance)
• Independent Variable: share of world oil exports
• Timeframe: 1986-2008
Methodology (cont.)
• Vulnerable vs. Secure
• Oil-secure: Canada, Norway, Sweden, United
Kingdom, United States
• Oil-vulnerable: France, Germany, Italy, Japan,
Korea, Netherlands, Spain
Methodology (cont.)
• International Oil Company (IOC)
• Home to an IOC: France, Italy, Korea, Japan,
Netherlands, Norway, United Kingdom, United
States
• Not home to an IOC: Australia, Canada,
Germany, Sweden, Spain
Methodology (cont.)
Controls:
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UN Security Council membership
Population
War
Regime type
U.S. military aid
GDP/capita
Regional effects
H1
Do oil exporters receive more foreign aid than nonexporters?
Yes!
Total Bilateral ODA Received,
1986-2008
450
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
Exporter
Nonexporter
median
203.46
118.57
mean
420.395
266.3618
Regression Analysis
Aid from all donors:
Coefficient = 0.13**
Supports H1
Vulnerable vs. Secure
Significant difference
0.32*** vs. 0.09
Regression Analysis (cont.)
International Oil Company
Smaller difference, but still important
0.16** vs 0.08
Country-Specific Results
Negative Effect
Indeterminate Effect
Positive Effect
Australia
Spain
Canada
Korea
Japan
United States
United Kingdom
Netherlands
Norway
Italy
France
Sweden
Oil-secure
Oil-vulnerable
Germany
Conclusion
Oil impacts aid allocation
But, the extent of the relationship between oil and
aid depends on the donor’s characteristics
Foreign aid appears to be another tool that states use
to ensure energy security
Future Research
Look at dyadic relationships
Obtain better data on reserves
Regional focus in Africa
Thank you!
Questions?
Comments?
Concerns?