Transcript Food production - Taste the Waste

Seminar on Curbing Food Waste
European Parliament, Brussels
Saving Water from Field to Fork
October 28, 2010
Jan Lundqvist, professor
Chair, Scientific Programme Committee
World Water Week in Stockholm
www.siwi.org
Issues
• Food production historically high
• So is undernourishment & overeating
• Water for our daily bread & butter
• Producing more or wasting less?
• Who cares?
Changes in Food Supply, 1961 – 2005
Energy intake
requirement:
1,800 – 2,200
kcal/pers, day
Between 2007 – 2008, world food supply increased by 5% (a new record)
Parallel with this, the number of undernourished increased by 150 million
Dramatic Jump in Undernourishment while Production increased
Demographic and GDP Trends
Population
(billion)
1800: (T. R. Malthus)
Urban
(billion)
<1
1900:
1.65
1950: just after WW2
2.5
2000:
6
2050:
~9
GDP
($ billion; 2005 ppp)
913
(1820)
7,006
3
56,593
~ 6.5
193,318*)
125%
400%
(2005)
*) trend projection
Increase: 2000 – 2050
50%
Source: GDP trend projection: Hillebrand, E., 2009.
Socio-economic Trends
and Food and Water in China
Food supply in China,
1961 - 2005
Water footprint
Source: Junguo Liu & Hub Savenije
Another 2-3 billion in a generation
- with dreams
- want/demand/right to sense development
Perspectives on the Future
Sanctioned discourse
Food production to increase by 70% by
2050 World Food Summit, Rome, November 2009.
Alternative/complementary Option
Similar message in World Bank (2008), Norman
Borlaug (2002), etc.
Better care of agr. produce;
storage, transport & marketing
- Curb food losses
Climate change may reduce potential
yields in SSA and SA by 30% by 2030
(Lobell et al. 2008 in Science)
Attention to use & food intake
- Reduce food waste
Temperature increase may reduce yields
of corn, soya beans and cotton by
30 – 46% in the US in a century
(Schlenker & Roberts, PNAS, 2009)
”One Country’s Table Scraps,
Another Country’s Meal”, NYT, May 18, 2008
112 pounds
of food
wastage
per month
for a family
of four
Food Security …
” …exists when all people, at all times, have physical and
economic access to sufficient , safe and nutritious
food to meet their dietary needs and food preferences
for an active and healthy life” Rome Declaration (FAO, 1996)
- How much is ”sufficient”?
1,800 – 2,200 kcal/person, day on average
- What to do when preferences deviate from ”sufficient”?
Undernourishment & overeating
1,000 million undernourished
- numbers increasing?
1,400 million overweight,
400 million obese
– numbers increasing
(Source: Economist, Dec. 13, 2003; S. Brichieri-Colombi, WWW 2006)
What Food for What
Food/Nutrition Security?
•
Food production: The amount in the field
•
Food supply: The amount available on the
market; production minus losses before
market, conversion
•
Food demand: The amount bought/procured by
households, public institutions and other social
entities
•
Food consumption: the intake of food, i.e. the
amount of food eaten
•
Food absorption: the uptake of energy &
nutrients in human body
Considerable losses, conversions and
wastage along the food chain
Much Food does not reach Market
Losses & Waste at a high Cost
Monetary
US – estimated US $100 billion annually
UK – calculated £12+ billion annually of
household waste (retail value)
Water - all food produced consumes water;
food waste = misuse of water, energy, etc.
Green house gas emission – from production
throughout the supply chain, incl disposal
Income and security
Given:
-
Scarcity and competition for natural resources
High energy input agriculture is not replicable
Environmental implications of food production
Overeating >>undernourishment
What is a sensible strategy for food security?
and
Who cares and who pushes the new agenda?
Water bubbles are the real thing:
“…we
have enjoyed a series of water ‘bubbles’
to support economic growth over the past 50
years or so….. We are now on the verge of
water bankruptcy in many places with no way
of paying the debt back”.
World Economic Forum, January 2009
Climate: Significant Uncertainty and Risk
Variability of rainfall – Beira, 1908 to 2009
400
BEIRA: monthly rainfall 1908 to 2009
350
Source: JeanMarc Faures, FAO
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
Jan
Feb
1908
1919
1930
1941
1952
1963
1974
1985
1996
Mar
1909
1920
1931
1942
1953
1964
1975
1986
1997
Apr
1910
1921
1932
1943
1954
1965
1976
1987
1998
May
1911
1922
1933
1944
1955
1966
1977
1988
1999
Jun
1912
1923
1934
1945
1956
1967
1978
1989
2000
Jul
1913
1924
1935
1946
1957
1968
1979
1990
2001
Aug
1914
1925
1936
1947
1958
1969
1980
1991
2002
Sep
1915
1926
1937
1948
1959
1970
1981
1992
2003
Oct
1916
1927
1938
1949
1960
1971
1982
1993
2004
Nov
1917
1928
1939
1950
1961
1972
1983
1994
2005
The 7 lean and the 7 fat years – Zimbabwe, 1910 - 2000
Dec
1918
1929
1940
1951
1962
1973
1984
1995
2006
Political will & political skill adequate?
“We know exactly what needs to be
done, but we do not know how to be
re-elected once we have done what
needs to be done”
EU politician Jean Claude Juncker
What about social acceptance?
Another Perception and Policy
a Generation or two ago
WRAP study (UK): HHs throw away about 25% of the food they
have bought, 60% of which is ”perfectly fit for consumption”
Swedish school children throw away more of the food they like
Water productivity improvements?
Reduce post-harvest losses?
Better seeds, fertilizers?
Biotechnologies?
Trade?
Contract farming?
Diet “adjustments”?
Resource prudent lifestyle?
Where is
the road ahead?
Photo: J. Lundqvist