Transcript Inclusive Growth and the Indices of Social Development

Inclusive Growth and Indices of Social
Development:
conceptual explorations with country
narratives
Arjan de Haan
IDRC, formerly ISS
contents
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Background to this paper
Concept inclusive growth – some genealogy
GDP, inequality, HDI
Inclusive growth as process
– Production
– Accountability, participation, governance
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background
• IDRC program ‘supporting inclusive growth’
• A fairly broad working definition
“growth that improves the access of the poor to expanding economic
opportunities and reduces inequality”
• While it’s right to have broad working definition, we
decided to review different country narratives
• And: how is the concept different from earlier ones?
– process and outcomes
– governance and beyond
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Country narratives:
10 emerging (more or less) economies
80
70
60
50
40
30
GDP/capita annual growth 1990-2010
Poverty headcount Change
Gini Improvement
20
Infant Mortality Improvement
10
0
-10
-20
4
-30
a little of genealogy
• concept inclusive growth led by emerging
economies, notably India 2004
• similar but in different language China, Brazil,
South Africa
• international agencies: AsDB, UNDP, now AfDB
• After:
– 1997 crisis turnaround pro-growth emphasis
– period ‘inclusive neo-liberalism’
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growth-is-not-enough concepts
• growth with redistribution
(1980s Washington Consensus style)
• growth and poverty reduction
• poverty elasticities
• inequality ‘back on the agenda’
• pro-poor growth (growth rate bottom 10%)
• growth incidence curves
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Growth and …
• Inequality
– while diverse now well explored , WDR 2006
– Growth Commission ‘toxic inequalities’
• HDI: remains contested but also well-known debate
• Gender – instrumental case
(no link with growth in dozen countries – see below)
• Governance, institutions and growth (below)
Now: growth as process ……………
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Inclusive growth
(see ADB paper Klasen)
Inclusive growth as outcome
– Growth with declining
income inequality
– Growth with growing social
opportunities
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6
4
2
0
0
IA-HDI?
2
4
6
8
10
-2
-> HD and social protection policies
-4
-6
-8
-10
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Inclusive growth as process
• Expanding equal opportunities and access
– Social (as above)
– Infrastructure
– Etc
Measurement not clear, possibly at project level
-> can / should we include governance and social
development indicators ?
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Inclusive growth as improving governance
-> no story / not-so-good-story
GDP and voice and
accountability (WGI)
GDP and rule of law (WGI)
70
70
60
60
50
50
40
40
30
30
20
20
10
10
0
0
0
2
4
6
8
10
0
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Intermezzo:
Governance and ISD comparison
Voice & accountability
– civic activism
Voice & accountability
– clubs & associations
0.80
0.60
0.70
0.50
0.60
0.40
0.50
0.40
0.30
Series1
Series1
0.30
0.20
0.20
0.10
0.10
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0
20
40
60
80
0
20
40
60
80
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Growth &
ISD – with governance
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.5
voice and countability
civic activism
0.4
clubs and associations
intergroup cohesion
safety and trust
0.3
0.2
0.1
0
0
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Conclusions
• Growth paradigm is shifting, increasingly
broad understanding well-being
• All good things do not go together
• ISD (some) show links with other development
outcomes (Robert, Yi Lerh and John)
• Can we link this to and ‘inclusive growth’
indicator ?
• Will strength of explanation increase if we
include governance ?
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