Transcript Total Economy - industriAll

Economic Overview
June 2015
Outline
(1) Total Economy
(2) Industry
• Production
• Productivity
• Employment, working
hours
• Inflation, output prices
• Wages, unit labour cost
• Trade balance
2
Total Economy
 Slight
improvement in
economic growth
in the EU in the
last two years.
 According to EU
forecasts this will
continue in 2015
and 2016.
 Source: AMECO
4
 Increased GDP
volume is expected
in almost all
European countries
in 2015.
 However, less than
1% growth in five
countries.
 Only 0.5% in Greece
which has lost
25.6% since the
crisis.
5
 The economic
growth is forecast
to pick up further
in 2016.
 At least 1% GDP
increase in every
country if the
predictions
materialise.
6
 The annual
production value
was just above the
pre-crisis level in
the EU in 2014.
 Spain has lost
4.9%, Italy 8.7%
and Greece 25.6%.
7
 Big differences
with respect to
GDP per capita in
Europe.
 Four countries
below 8,000 euros
per year.
 The EU average
was 27,300 euros
in 2014.
8
 A bit more
equality when
differences in
purchasing power
are eliminated.
9
 Industry (NACE BE) accounted for
19% of total value
added in 2014.
B= Mining, oil and gas
C= Manufacturing
D= Energy supply
E = Water supply
Source: Eurostat, National Accounts.
10
 The total
employment was
reduced by 7
million from 2008
to 2013.
 It will take another
2-3 years before
we again see the
level of 2008.
Source: AMECO
11
 Employment still
below pre-crisis
level in the EU 28
and EA 19.
 Turkey most
positive with
29.4% increase
since 2007.
12
 Industry (NACE B-E)
accounted for 16%
of employment in
the EU28 last year.
B= Mining, oil and gas
C= Manufacturing
D= Energy supply
E = Water supply
 Source: Eurostat, National
Accounts.
13
 Big differences
between the
countries.
 Long hours and
little part-time
work in Poland.
14
 The average
number of yearly
working hours
lower than in
2007 in most
countries.
15
 Big differences
between the
countries.
 Spain and Greece
both over 24%.
16
 Unprecedentedly
high levels of
unemployed
people under 25
years old.
 Spain and Greece
over 50%. Only
two countries
below 10%.
17
 A slight growth in
productivity in the
EU since 2007.
 Nine countries
above 10%.
 Highest increases
in new EU
member states
and Spain.
18
 Nominal wage
increases have
exceeded real
labour
productivity
growth in all
countries except
Greece, Cyprus
and Ireland since
2007.
19
 Real unit labour
cost has fallen in
twelve countries
since 2007,
meaning that the
wage share of
GDP has gone
down and the
capital share has
grown.
20
 Germany had a
surplus in its
foreign trade of
215 billion euros
last year.
 France and UK had
deficits of 162
million between
them.
21
 The Netherlands
exported goods
and services
worth 180 billion
euros more than it
imported from
other EU member
states last year.
22
 Germany has the
highest trade
surplus with
countries outside
the EU.
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Industry
 EU average 19%
when mining,
petroleum
production and
energy supply are
included.
 Norway on top
because of big oil
and gas sector.
25
 Manufacturing
sector has
greatest relative
significance in the
Czech Republic,
Hungary, Slovenia
and Germany.
 EU average is 15%.
26
 Industrial
production in the
EU28 seems to be
levelling out.
 Source: Eurostat, Short-term
business statistics.
27
 Most positive
developments in
new EU member
states
 Stagnation in
Germany.
 Down in EU 28
and EA 19: 8-9%.
 Four countries
have lost more
than 20%.
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 Biggest reduction
in the mining
sector & clothes’
production sector
since 2007.
29
 Industrial
employment in
the EU 3.9 million
lower than in
2008.
30
 Germany has
8 million jobs in
industry.
 8 countries above
one million, also
Romania and the
Czech Republic.
 Poland is now
number 3 (no data
for Turkey).
31
 Almost all countries
are in the red.
Industrial
employment
heavily under
pressure.
 Germany is the only
positive exception.
 Reduction in Spain
close to 30%.
 Average drop in EU
and EA higher than
10%.
32
 All sectors are in
the red but MET
industries, energy
supply and
pharmaceuticals
have done better
than the rest.
33
 Increase in seven
countries, but not
very dramatic.
34
 In EU 28 the real
labour
productivity per
hour in the
industry has gone
slightly up since
the onset of the
crisis.
35
 Big variations with
respect to wages
per employed
person (total gross
wages divided by
number of
employees).
36
 The lowest
average gross
wages in industry
are just over 3
euros per hour.
37
 Wage increases
highest in the east
and south east
since the crisis.
38
 Low inflation rates
in most countries
since the onset of
the crisis.
 Highest growth in
Turkey and Iceland.
 EU average only
15.4% in eight
years. Even lower in
the euro zone.
39
 Exceptionally low
inflation in 2014.
 Only 0.4% in EA19.
40
 Growth in most
countries, but in
Cyprus, the UK
and Luxembourg
real wages per
hour in industry
have actually
fallen since the
crisis began.
41
 Gross wages and
salaries have
increased faster
than production in
almost all
European
countries since
2007.
 The average
increase in EU 28
was 19.2%.
42
 The picture is
diverse.
 Germany, Italy,
France and Spain
are among the
countries with
increased RULC
since 2007.
43
 Industrial
companies have
increased their
producer prices in
most countries
since 2007 (by
more than 20% in
nine countries).
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