Transcript publication

Too nice to fail? EU
external action towards
Africa
Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Vienna,
7 September 2016
Damien Helly, Deputy Head of Programme,
EU External Action, ECDPM
Content
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ECDPM
A few words about ECDPM
A simple framework to approach a complex topic
2008-2014. Continental drift or widening cracks?
2014-2016: When the crises strike
Scenarios for Africa-Europe relations
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1. A few words about ECDPM
1. Think and do tank working on Europe Africa
relations and European development policies
2. Funded by 9 European governments
3. Around 60 staff
4. HQ in Maastricht & office in Brussels
5. Regularly on mission in Africa
ECDPM
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2. A simple framework to approach a
complex topic
1. Key factors to look at in Africa-Europe relations
(development policy-making covered under these
factors):
a. Economy
b. Governance & politics
c. Security
d. Multilateralism
2. Critical junctures
a. Africa-EU summits
b. Significant events affecting the 4 key factors above
(conflict, elections, international conference)
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3. 2008-2014: Continental drift of
widening cracks?
Confidence and commitments to (re)build
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4.
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Economy
Governance & politics
Security
Multilateralism
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3. 2008-2014: Continental drift of
widening cracks? Economy
Trade trends show decrease of Europe.
FDI concentrated in 12 countries
EPAs didn't really deliver
Chinese investments competition
Growth driven by extractives (Chinese growth) –
high prices of raw materials
• food/agricultural products (wheat) creates SouthSouth tensions
• Inclusive growth not seen jointly as priority
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•  some kind of global opening of African economies
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3. 2008-2014: Continental drift of
widening cracks? Security
• Increased EU interventionism until Chad and then
African solutions to African problem
• Common push on APSA for different reasons
• Germany string supporter
• But failure of prevention: Sudan , but also and
foremost Arab Spring.
• And the Sahel: terrorism & organised crime.
• SSR-: long lasting efforts in DRC but competition and
no collective political weight.
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3. 2008-2014: Continental drift of
widening cracks? Governance &
politics
• Africans became more self-confident.
• Regional hegemons as donor darlings raised
questions: Ethiopia, Nigeria, and then Angola.
• Weakening of pan-africanism (including in South
Africa)
• Politics in the relation still dominated by large former
colonial powers: West Africa, Zimbabwe, Sudan,
Egypt, Libya, Algeria, Mali.
• North Africa: France, Spain, Italy
• Schizophrenia in democracy support
• ICC became contentious, the LGBT. Cultural goods as
well.
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3. 2008-2014: Continental drift of
widening cracks? Multilateralism
CPA - Cotonou
Paris, Busan principles
MDGs mixed results
R2P
ICC
COP 21yes but 19 & 20 more difficult
EU AU UN triangle failed to deliver in sustainable
funding for security (Product & Obasanjo reports)
• Transit phase that last quite long and decreases
engagement from both sides on security ?
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3. 2008-2014: Continental drift of
widening cracks? ECDPM summary
“Need to rebuild confidence and commitments” at the
EU-AU 2014 summit
ECDPM
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4. 2014-2016: When the crises strike Economy
• Global meltdown
• Greek crisis & lengthy EU decisions on financial crisis
undermine its image
• Less Chinese growth, imports & investments
• Less trade
• African resilience to financial shocks
• Domestic resource mobilisation debates start,
announcing the return of conditionality
• EPAs finally seen as political issue in EU. Deadlines
and some get signed but also perhaps more
flexibility? No clear impact yet
ECDPM
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4. 2014-2016: When the crises strike Security
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ECDPM
Arab Spring
Somalia
Sudan
Sahel
Ebola
Libya
Terrorism in Africa (an African terrorism?)
Syria
Where is CSDP ? (Nicholas Westcott, EEAS Africa)
And where is the comprehensive approach?
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4. 2014-2016: When the crises strike
– Governance & politics
• EU unable to influence positively post-Arab springs
dynamics (i.e. Egypt)
• Middle Eastern & Arab & islamic conflicts expand into
Africa
• Europe’s loss of credibility in its governance of
migration flows
• Renewed Barroso Commission followed by Juncker
with very realistic ambitions (Growth, jobs & youth)
+ Mogherini as HR/VP show lack of collective political
ambition
• Towards renationalisation of Foreign Policy?
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4. 2014-2016: When the crises strikemultilateralism
Cracks within continents and the continental drift seem
to keep widening
• AU chairperson election & Zuma agenda – few
common Africa positions?
• Willingness to decrease Africa Peace Facility
contribution to APSA
• Francophone Anglophone divide
• French/British burden sharing in Africa continues to
some extent
• Sahel shows new EU (but also UN) engagement from
several member States but for various reasons
• COP21, SDGs seen as success, but it is all about
implementation.
ECDPM
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5. Scenarios for the future of AfricaEurope relations
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5. Scenarios for the future of AfricaEurope relations - Economy
1. The end of high growth rates in Europe?
2. No optimistic scenarios for the size of African
economy (even if diverse) in global economy
3. Trade will go on with or without or with slow EPA
4. Change in African agriculture will be key to feed
exploding population + adaptation to climate
change
5. Africa may rise but unequally – archipelagos of
wealth in oceans of poverty
6. Migration push to remain
7. Necessity to manage migration, employment in a
more collective way to have impact
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5. Scenarios for the future of AfricaEurope relations – Security (1)
1. EU strategic scenarios
• Generous donor but political dwarf
• Normative power & political power
• Declining power
10 key factors (from economy to internal politics,
balance between large Member States, voting
procedures & quality of institutional policy making)
Brexit not good for EU foreign policy and security
policy. But cooperation will continue at different levels.
Question is how good a lobbyist will the UK be?
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5. Scenarios for the future of AfricaEurope relations – Security (2)
1. African security challenges are numerous and
diverse
2. Prevention is necessary and its success are invisible
but has to be done
3. Future threats include:
• organised crime of all kinds,
• urban theatres,
• Youth & violence,
• virtual & technological spaces for conflict,
• terrorism,
• maritime but also air contexts (growth of air line
traffic).
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5. Scenarios for the future of AfricaEurope relations – governance &
politics
1. Highly unpredictable societies (see Arab Spring, but
also Ukraine…)
2. Youth in Africa can bring change quickly
3. If European governance standards are lowered
down (violation of Human Rights, undemocratic
forces coming to power) -> not encouraging for
African activists and risk of dialogues between
authoritarian rulers.
ECDPM
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5. Scenarios for the future of AfricaEurope relations – multilateralism
1. Direct coercion in multilateral fora works less well
than before…
2. ACP – Cotonou and its limits: debates & ECDPM
scenarios
3. Regional integration in Africa also takes different
shapes – AU & RECs but not only. Alphabet soups (&
Spaghetti bowls)
4. Strong institutions are needed, but too many
institutions is not good either
5. Role of ideologies & visions: pan-Africanism, but
also pan-Europeanism. (A European 2063 agenda?)
6. If bilateral relations are tense, joint multilateral
actions will be more difficult to achieve.
ECDPM
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Too nice to fail? Towards debate
1. Direct coercion in multilateral fora works less well
than before…
2. Regional integration in Africa also takes different
shapes
3. Strong institutions are needed, but too many
institutions is not good either
4. Role of ideologies & visions: pan-Africanism, but
also pan-Europeanism. (A European 2063 agenda?)
5. If bilateral relations are tense, joint multilateral
actions will be more difficult to achieve.
ECDPM
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Thank you !
www.ecdpm.org
Damien Helly
www.slideshare.net/ecdpm
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Reasons for migration
• Many reasons (often mixed)
• Protect life and liberty (desperation migration/forced
migration due to conflict, war, natural disasters etc.)
• Pursue enhancement of livelihoods and lifestyles
(moving out of choice for new lifestyles)  ‘economic
migration’
Often difficult to identify single reason for
moving yet often for seeking employment
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Why do we talk about migration and
development.... And what do we mean
by it?
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Migration
Development
“... Migration is the original strategy for people seeking to
escape poverty, mitigate risk, and build a better life. It has
been with us since the dawn of mankind, and its
economic impact today is massive.“
(Peter Sutherland, UN Special Representative for International Migration)
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+
Migration
Social
impact/ wellbeing
MDGs
Education
Health
gender
Poverty
Reduction
Social
cohesion
Fiscal stress
Economic
• Labour
Market
• Inequality
Development
-
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Remittances
ECDPM
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Migration and Development
Remittances
National Level
• Increase national
income (if formally
transferred)
• gain
creditworthiness
• stabilize national
balance of
payments accounts
ECDPM
• Rise in inflation
• Aggravation of
regional inequalities
between receiving
and non-receiving
areas
• No benefit to longterm growth
Household level
• Afford basic needs
(food, education,
etc.) – Poverty
reduction
• Potentially increase
local capital for
investment
Negative:
• Increase on prices
(of land) etc.
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Link with development dimensions
• Food Security
To what degree is heightened mobility related to problems of food
insecurity? Food security shocks and chronic food insecurity as major
motives for migration for income-generating opportunity. For those with
less resources may lead to further fragility/insecurity.
• Climate Change – Migration as adaptation strategy
Changes in migration patterns can be responses to both extreme weather
events and longer-term climate variability and change and migration can
also be an effective adaptation strategy.
IPCC, UNFCCC increasingly recognize this link
• Peace&Security
Livelihood strategy in post-conflict societies (Pakistan, Nepal)
Pressure on social systems and social cohesion
Taking account of ‘returning’ migrants in peace- and statebuilding
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International
and Post-2015
UN High Level Dialogue
2013
8 Point Plan
1. Protect the human rights of all migrants
2. Reduce the costs of labour migration
3. Eliminate migrant exploitation including human
trafficking
4. Address the plight of stranded migrants
5. Improve public perceptions of migrants
6. Integrate migration into the development agenda
7. Strengthen the migration evidence base
8. Enhance migration partnerships and cooperation
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International
and Post-2015
Post-2015 OWG Text
Goal 8 Sustainable economic growth/ decent work
• Promote labour rights and promote safe and secure
working environments of all workers, including migrant
workers, particularly women migrants…
Goal 10 Reduce inequality within and among countries
• Facilitate orderly, safe, regular and responsible migration
and mobility of people, including through implementation of
planned and well-managed migration policies
• By 2030, reduce to less than 3% the transaction costs of
migrant remittances and eliminate remittance corridors
with costs higher than 5%
ECDPM
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European Union
Internal Debate
on CEAS
EU agenda – Internal issues
• separate debate on the Common European Asylum
System (CEAS),
• responsibility sharing and solidarity among MS
• Fight against irregular migration & “Fortress Europe”
without providing safe & legal channels (MS)
Exacerbating the situations of irregular migrants
• External dimension of migration and internal
management inextricably linked
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“Money should not
be spent building
the walls in Europe
[...] but to
dismantle the walls
in countries [of the
South]”
ECDPM
“Legal migration is a
fence against illegal
migration ”
“Equally important is
the need to work on
the link between
migration and
development”
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African Union,
RECs
African Union & RECs
• 2006 Migration Policy Framework for Africa
M&D: Brain Drain, Diaspora, Remittances
• Ouagadougou Action Plan to Combat Trafficking of
Human Beings
• African Common Position on Migration and
Development
• “Migration as effective tool for development”
• Post-2015 CAP notes migration and development
• RECs
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Free labour migration provisions, e.g. EAC Common Market
Protocol Article 10 “free movement of workers” – progress
but difficult to fully implement; SADC region more
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restrictive
What implications for ECDPM work on
migration and development issues?
ECDPM
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ECDPM
International and Post2015
European Union
External
Policy Agenda
African Union
Policy Agenda
EU
MS
Internal Debate
on CEAS
RECs
RECs
RECs
RECs
Practice
ECDPM
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Future ECDPM work?
International and Post2015
European Union
External
Policy Agenda
African Union
Policy Agenda
EU
MS
Internal Debate
on CEAS
RECs
RECs
RECs
RECs
Practice
ECDPM
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Risks
• Policy Momentum stays
at the global level but no
traction nationally
Opportunities
• Increased momentum
• Integration of migration in
development planning
recognised more widely
ECDPM
• Topic of migration
remains politically
sensitive in many
countries in South and
North
• Funding:
• Already Existing
research by ACPOBS
• Larger scale
research (e.g.
OECD)
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Discussion
• In which ECDPM areas do you see scope for future
ECDPM engagement in the topic of migration and
development?
• What are the opportunities and challenges to look
more at the level of practice and feed experiences
back to policy level?
• From the perspective of various programmes, where
do you see the dimension of migration as being
relevant?
ECDPM
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Thank you
www.ecdpm.org
www.slideshare.net/ecdpm
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Forced Migrants (international&national)
According to World Bank
73 million forced migrants
Many more
undocumented?
Migrants in Mio.
1.2
16.7
21.9
IDPs - conflict
33.3
IDPs natural
disaster
Refugees
Asylum
Seekers
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