Transcript 1. - FMA Summits

The Outlook for Energy:
A View to 2040
Nick Jones – Corporate Strategic Planning
May 30, 2014
This presentation includes forward-looking statements. Actual future conditions (including economic conditions, energy demand, and energy supply) could differ materially due to changes
in technology, the development of new supply sources, political events, demographic changes, and other factors discussed herein and under the heading "Factors Affecting Future
Results" in the Investors section of our website at: www.exxonmobil.com. The information provided includes ExxonMobil's internal estimates and forecasts based upon internal data and
analyses as well as publically-available information from external sources including the International Energy Agency. This material is not to be used or reproduced without the permission
of Exxon Mobil Corporation. All rights reserved.
Global Progress Drives Demand
Population
GDP
Billion
Trillion 2005$
Average Growth / Yr.
2010 – 2040
0.8%
Non OECD
OECD
ExxonMobil 2014 Outlook for Energy
Average Growth / Yr.
2010 – 2040
2.8%
People’s Living Standard Depends on Energy
ExxonMobil 2014 Outlook for Energy
People’s Living Standard Depends on Energy
ExxonMobil 2014 Outlook for Energy
People’s Living Standard Depends on Energy
ExxonMobil 2014 Outlook for Energy
Global Progress Drives Demand
Population
GDP
Energy Demand
Billion
Trillion 2005$
Quadrillion BTUs
Average Growth / Yr.
2010 – 2040
0.8%
Average Growth / Yr.
2010 – 2040
2.8%
Average Growth / Yr.
2010 – 2040
1.0%
Energy Saved
~500
Non OECD
OECD
ExxonMobil 2014 Outlook for Energy
Electricity Generation Leads Growth
Energy Demand by Sector
Quadrillion BTUs
2040
2025
2010
ExxonMobil 2014 Outlook for Energy
Industrial
Industrial Energy Demand
By Region
By Fuel
Sector
Quadrillion BTUs
Percent Share
2010
Other
Other
Naphtha
NGLs
Rest of
Non OECD
Energy
Electricity
Industry
Other
Oil
Heavy
Industry
India
China
Chemicals
Coal
Gas
OECD
ExxonMobil 2014 Outlook for Energy
2040
Transportation
Transportation Demand
Sector Demand
Commercial Transportation by Region - 2040
MBDOE
MBDOE
Rail
Marine
Aviation
Heavy Duty
2010
Light Duty
ExxonMobil 2014 Outlook for Energy
Electricity Generation
Electricity Use by Region
Electricity Use
1000 KWh per Capita
2040
Population (Billions)
ExxonMobil 2014 Outlook for Energy
Growth in Electricity
Demand
2010 – 2040
~90%
Electricity Demand
Global Electrical Demand by Sector
Global Electrical Demand by Fuel
Thousand TWh
Thousand TWh
Other Industry
Gas
Heavy Industry
Coal
Commercial
Nuclear
Wind & Solar
Residential
Transportation
ExxonMobil 2014 Outlook for Energy
Oil
Other Renewables
Economic Choices for U.S. Electricity
Plant Cost, Startup 2030
Baseload Intermittent
2013 cents/kWh
Reliability
Cost*
Coal
Reliability
Cost*
Gas
$60/tonne of CO2
$0/tonne
Gas
Coal
Nuclear
*Reliability cost includes integration, backup capacity and additional transmission costs.
ExxonMobil 2014 Outlook for Energy
CCS
Onshore
Wind
Solar PV
Utility
United States Electricity Demand
Electricity Demand
Electricity Generation Fuel Consumption
Thousand Terawatt Hour
Quadrillion BTUs
Other Renewables
Wind & Solar
Biomass
Nuclear
Coal
Gas
Oil
ExxonMobil 2014 Outlook for Energy
Emissions
CO2 Emissions Plateau
Energy-Related CO2 Emissions by Region
Emissions per Capita
Billion Tonnes
Tonnes / Person
2010
Asia Pacific
2040
Middle East
Africa
Latin America
Russia/Caspian
Europe
North America
ExxonMobil 2014 Outlook for Energy
Energy Mix Continues to Evolve
Quadrillion BTUs
0.7%
2040
Average Growth / Yr.
2010 - 2040
1.7%
2010
1.0%
0.0%
2.5%
0.4%
5.9%
ExxonMobil 2014 Outlook for Energy
2.0%
Supply
Global Liquids and Gas Supply
Global Liquids Supply
Global Gas Supply
MBDOE
BCFD
Biofuels
Other Liquids
NGLs
Rest of World
Unconventional
Oil Sands
Tight Oil
North America
Unconventional
Deepwater
Rest of World
Conventional
Conventional
Crude & Condensate
North America Conventional
ExxonMobil 2014 Outlook for Energy
Energy Use Evolves Over Time
Global Percent Mix of Fuels
Percent
Other Renewables
Nuclear
Hydro
Gas
Oil
Coal
Biomass
1800
1850
Source: Smil, Energy Transitions (1800-1960)
1900
1950
2000
2040
Conclusions
ExxonMobil 2014 Outlook for Energy