Transcript Dstl pay: what do Prospect members want from a new pay

You’re fired!
The Strategic Defence
and Security Review
Steve Jary
National Secretary
November 2010
Financial background
Budgetary legacy
CSR settlement
What it means in practice
• inflation etc
• ACR baseline and targets
National Security Strategy
Four priorities
1. International terrorism
2. Cyber attack
3. International military crises
4. Major accidents or natural hazards
“… tough choices to bring the defence budget back into balance.
Those choices are informed by the risks, analysis and prioritisation
set out in this National Security Strategy”
“A risk that is both high impact and high likelihood is more
significant than one that is low impact and low likelihood”
SDSR highlights (1)
Waffle and platitudes – vague and ill-defined
New defence planning assumptions:
one enduring ‘stabilisation’ operation (6,500); and
one enduring complex intervention (2,000); and
one non-enduring simple intervention (1,000); or
three non-enduring operations; or
with sufficient warning(!), short large single commitment
(30,000)
SDSR highlights (2)
Future force elements:
Deployed force
High readiness force
Lower readiness force
Aim to deliver this “for the 2020s”
Implications for command structures?
In essence:
maintain virtually all capabilities, but
reduced volume
SDSR highlights (3)
2.B.13 “MOD civil servants play a critical role in defence. They
support Ministers in determining policy and strategy; in managing
the resources allocated by Parliament; and in maintaining our key
cross-government and international relationships. They also
perform a range of vital roles in front line support to operations,
from manning the Royal Fleet Auxiliary and providing fire safety,
to scientific knowledge, contracts expertise, logistics support,
intelligence capabilities and policy advice.”
SDSR highlights (4)
£4.3 billion non-front line savings:
•
Reductions in civilian workforce and non-front line service
personnel
•
Rationalisation of estate
•
Asset sales, inc DSG and Marchwood
•
Efficiencies and improvements in military training
•
Contract renegotiations
•
£300 million pa from service and civilian allowances
•
Reduced spend on commodities
•
Reduced spend on media and comm’s
“this represents a 24% reduction in non-frontline roles and organisations
such as headquarters, support roles and organisations such as DE&S,
saving at least £2 billion per year by 2014/15”
SDSR finance
CSR figures
£B
Baseline
Cumulative
2014-15 real growth
2010-11
2011-12
2012-13
2013-14
24.3
24.9
25.2
24.9
24.7
- 7.50%
8.6
8.9
9.1
9.2
8.7
- 7.50%
Total DEL
32.9
33.8
34.4
34.1
33.5
- 7.50%
Departmental AME
Total Expenditure
2.8
35.7
2.8
36.6
3.1
37.5
3.3
37.4
3.4
36.9
2010-11
2.3
3.3
3.2
2011-12
1.6
2.6
1.5
2012-13
2
3.3
2.1
2013-14
2
3.3
2.7
2014-15
2
3.5
2.7
Resourc e DEL
Capital DEL
Inflation
%
CPI (Q4)
RPI (Q4)
GDP deflator
GDP index
1.000
0.969
0.955
0.935
0.910
Real Expenditure
£B
Resourc e DEL
Capital DEL
Total DEL
Departmental AME
Total Expenditure
2010-11
24.3
8.6
32.9
2.8
35.7
2011-12
24.1
8.6
32.8
2.7
35.5
2012-13
24.1
8.7
32.8
3.0
35.8
2013-14
23.3
8.6
31.9
3.1
35.0
2014-15
22.5
7.9
30.5
3.1
33.6
ACR controls
Administration budget
£m
ACR c ontrol
Real
2010-11
2,183
2,183
2011-12
2,025
1,962
2012-13
1,877
1,792
2013-14
1,736
1,623
2014-15
1,598
1,455
92.7%
33%
SDSR people
SDSR figures
Baseline
n
2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15
Army
102,000
95,000
Navy
RAF
Total Service
35,000
38,000
175,000
30,000
33,000
158,000
90%
Civil Service
85,000
60,000
71%
ie a cut of 25,000, of which…
Trading funds
25,000
5,000
… DSG
… Met Office
LECs?
Early releases
Natural wastage
Other outsourcing?
3,500
1,500
4,000
8,000
3,000
2,000
15,000
3,000
SDSR critique
Driven by finance, not strategy
Reverse-engineered
Civilian cut is political
Armed forces ‘protected’ (10% cut)
Civilians ‘sacrificed’ (30% cut)
No risk assessment, no plan
Issues for Prospect
Political commitment to headcount reductions –
can we make a difference and how?
Hands-clean or hands-dirty?
VERS – CSCS terms, selection, etc
MSS Agreement – units and selection
No enforced redundancy
Mobility - No enforced relocation
Privatisation - VfM assessments