Transcript Arms conversion for a low carbon economy

Arms conversion for
a low carbon economy
Dr Stuart Parkinson
http://www.sgr.org.uk/
Introduction
• There has long been pressure for UK to adopt
less aggressive foreign/ military policies and
cut back on military industry
• 1970s/80s arms conversion initiatives not very
successful
– e.g. proposals to convert Lucas Aerospace and
Barrow shipyards to renewable and other civilian
technologies
• End of Cold War led to some shift in 1990s
UK remains major military
spender/ exporter
• UK military budget is world’s 4th largest
– Up 21% since 1999
• UK is home to 2nd largest arms company
• UK is 5th largest arms exporter
• UK spending per person is 2.5 times that of
Russia and 17 times that of China
• UK spending per person/ per unit GDP is much
larger than EU average
Military v climate spending
• Some example figures from UK (2008):
– Sector
• Military equipment budget:
• Renewable energy subsidies:
£13.4bn
<£1.0bn
– Research & development (publicly funded)
• Military:
£2,220m
• Renewable energy:
£66m
– Technology
• One eurofighter typhoon costs ~£90m
• For this cost, a 90 MW wind farm could be built
Current major UK military procurement
Number
Typhoon fighter aircraft
Estimated procurement cost
232
£21 bn
Trident replacement
(including submarines, nuclear
warheads & infrastructure)
-
£15-20 bn
Aircraft supercarriers
(including aircraft)
2
£12-14 bn
14
£13 bn
3,500
£6 bn
Type-45 destroyers
6
£3.6 bn
Astute submarines
3
£3.5 bn
FSTA tanker aircraft
FRES armoured vehicles
Total: at least £74 billion
But...
• “How can it be that it takes 20 years to buy a
ship, or aircraft, or tank? Why does it always
seem to cost at least twice what was thought?
Even worse, at the end of the wait, why does it
never quite seem to do what it was supposed
to?”
Ministry of Defence report
(leaked to The Times, 24 August 2009)
Lifetime cost estimates
• Trident replacement
– Including 3-4 submarines, missiles, warheads,
infrastructure, operation (30y)
– About £97 bn
• Aircraft supercarriers
– Including 2 carriers, fighter aircraft, surveillance
aircraft, operation (50y)
– At least £31 bn
Military v civilian job creation
• Military industry is capital-intensive
– Expensive
– Low job creation for investment
– Highly specialised jobs
– High use of materials and energy
• Civilian sectors
– Generally more labour-intensive, including
renewable energy, energy efficiency and public
transport sectors
Job creation potential
Overall Employment Effects of Spending $1 Billion for Alternative
Spending Targets in U.S. Economy, 2005
Sector
Defence/ Military
Number of jobs
created
Number of jobs relative
to defence/ military
spending
8,555
-
Tax cuts
10,779
+26%
Health care
12,883
+50%
Education
17,687
+107%
Public transport
19,795
+131%
House construction &
efficiency
improvements
12,804
+50%
Source: University of Massachusetts (2007)
Resistance to change
• Highly specialised industrial workforce
• Committed to standards and procedures
required by Ministry of Defence
• Working to specific technical requirements
which are not generally applicable to other
industrial areas of work
• Jobs directly and indirectly dependent on
government policy
Job dependency
• Jobs directly dependent on MoD equipment
spending
– Only approx. 2% of manufacturing sector; 0.3% of
total UK employment
– Most jobs in regions of high employment (e.g.
South East England)
– Regional development assistance can be directed
to areas which are more vulnerable to job losses,
e.g. Barrow (Cumbria)
Past shifts from military
to civilian industry in UK
• Post-conflict demobilisation
– e.g. After World Wars
• Closure of (US) military bases
• As Cold War drew to a close
– Jobs in military/defence sector fell from 625,000 in
1985/86 to 410,000 in 1995/96
• Similar shift could take place now, with
decommissioning (e.g. Trident) providing some
jobs during the transition period
Potential job creation in UK from
arms conversion
Study
Policy change
Initial job loss Eventual job
creation
York University
(2001)
Cut arms
exports by 50%
49,000
67,000
BASIC (2007) –
scenario 1
Cancel aircraft
super-carriers
20,000
30,000
BASIC (2007) –
scenario 2
Cancel Trident
replacement
65,000
105,000
Conclusions
• Spending on military sector is considerably
higher than climate sector
• Climate (and other civilian) sectors have much
greater job creation potential than military
• With political will and careful planning, a
major shift could be achieved which would
inject tens of billions into the low carbon
economy