Transcript The Middle East

International Political Economy
Chap.14
The Middle East:
The Quest for Development and Democracy
110329_Tsinghua_final_02.pptx 46
Content
Sector 1
An Overview Of The Middle East
Sector 2
The Middle East’s Historical Legacy
Sector 3
The Roots Of Conflict And Cooperation
Sector 4
Facing Global Economy: Integration or Marginalization？
Sector 5
The Challenge Of Democracy
Chpt.14
1. An Overview Of The Middle East
 Which countries constitute the
Middle East?
----This chapter focuses on the
region that U.S. social scientists
commonly refer to as the Middle
East and North African (MENA).
Chpt.14
1. An Overview Of The Middle East
Basic Imformation -------------- Arabic is the most widely used language. And the majority of people are Muslims.

MENA countries share some common economic challenges but differ significantly
in terms of level of development and relationship to the global economy.

In terms of political freedom, the Middle East is far behind.
 Four groups:
1. Big oil exporters of the Gulf Cooperation Council and Libya, with comparatively small
populations and high per-capital incomes.
2. Big oil exporters such as Iran, Iraq, and Algeria, with large populations and historically highly
protectionist economies.
3. Non-oil exporters such as Israel, Turkey, Jordan, Tunisia, and Lebanon, with significant
agriculture, industrial exports, tourism, and openness to FDIs.
4. The countries like Egypt, Morocco, Syria, Yemen, and the Palestinian Territories, with mostly
large populations, low per-capital GNI, and high rates of rural poverty.
Chpt.14
2. The Middle East’s Historical Legacy
2.1 The Ottoman Heritage
2.2 Twentieth-Century Colonialism
and Its Aftermath
2.3 The Cold War to the Present
in the MENA
Chpt.14
2.1 The Ottoman Heritage
------- By the 19th century, the Ottoman Empire had turned into the “sick man pf Europe”.
“defensive modernization”---reorganizing their governments, adopting European military
technology and legal codes, and building state-owned factories.
 Why was the Middle East unable to compete military and economically with Europe?
Explanations----
 A lack of separation of church and state, cultural
immobilism, and lack of political freedom;
 Ottoman “capitulation”----special economic
privileges and legal rights granted Europeans over
several centuries;
 Stagnation in Islamic thought;
 the Middle East got locked in the Eastern Questi
on Game.
Chpt.14
2.2 Twentieth-Century Colonialism
and Its Aftermath
 By the end of WWI,
the European had carved up the region into colonies.
--------- e.g “protectorates” & “mandates”
 Soon after the WWI,
nationalist movements blossomed across the MENA.
--------- e.g the Zionist dream
 By the late 1950s,
most of the countries in the region were independent.
However, many independent states still had to deal with a colonial legacy of exploitation and presence of
European powers. Ordinary citizens had little role in gov., and there's a huge economic divide between urban
and rural dwellers.
--------- e.g the Suez Crisis of 1956
 In the 1950s and 1960s,
Arab socialists and military officers staged a series of coup in order to break the cycle of dependency
and inequality. Their success was tempered by the intrusion of the Cold War into the region.
Chpt.14
2.3 The Cold War to the Present
in the MENA
The Cold War had at least two lasting effects on the region:
 It pushed the oil-producing states of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting countries
(OPEC) to assert control over oil production and pricing.
 In their struggle against leftist political parties and Soviet proxies, the U.S. and its Middle
East allies often accommodates conservative Islamist movements, even supplying massive
amounts of weapons.
 At the end of the Cold War in 1990, Russia virtually
disappeared from the Middle East and the U.S. emerged as
the unrivaled external hegemon.
 While, violent, non-state organizations such as al-Qaeda
and Hizballah became the West’s new bogeymen. Especially
since 9/11, the geopolitical reality of the MENA states had
been shaped by the crackdown on radical Islamists.
Also, the Gulf states and Iran involved in an armed race.
Chpt.14
3. The Roots Of Conflict And Cooperation
3.1 Context
3.2 Blaming the Outside World
3.3 Blaming “Aggressive”
Regional
Leaders
3.4 The Oppression Factor
3.5 Blaming the Islamists
3.6 Misconceptions on Middle East
3.7 Cooperation at Two Levels
Chpt.14
3.1 Context
 The causes of MENA conflicts are as much as domestic as they are international,
and as much ideological as they are material.
Conventional opinion:
--------- the ancient hatred between the Sunni-Shi’a are at the heart of conflicts.
 While, it's more accurate to tie regional insecurity to
four contemporary political factors:
 The search by the external powers for
influence in the region;
 Adventurism by regional leaders
 Oppressive regimes;
 The politicization of cultural and religious
differences.
Chpt.14
3.2 Blaming the Outside World
 Non-Middle Eastern powers have been searching for control of the MENA for centuries. And
the Great Powers often ensured future strife.
 During the Cold War, the Soviet Union and the U.S. struggled for dominance in the region by
sponsoring different political forces which stroking the Arab-Israeli conflict.
 Today, the U.S. still have deep military penetration of the MENA.
Consequently, countries trying to defy the hegemon face potentially heavy cost.
E.g : economic sanctions: cutoffs of aid, freezing of assets in the U.S., trade embargos.....
However, ostensibly designed to foster regime change or “better behavior,” these
sanctions have in some cases ravaged vulnerable populations without achieving their
political objectives.
E.g : the UN’s punitive Oil for Food Program.
Chpt.14
3.3 Blaming “Aggressive” Regional Leaders
It is clear that adventurism by regional leaders since 1980 has been as important a source of
insecurity as superpower meddling or transnational terrorism.
 The forms of adventurism:
territorial aggression, punitive strikes,
threats of invasions, and covert operations.....
 Targets:
to destabilize political rivals,
expand a country’s territory,
or solidify control over strategic natural resources.
 E.g :
Saddam Hussein’s 1980 invasion of Iran and 1990 occupation of Kuwait;
Israel’s long-term occupation and settlement of Arab territories.
Chpt.14
3.4 The Oppression Factor
Regional conflicts also involve cycles of oppression-terrorism-counterinsurgency within states.
In fact, the politics of oppression and resistance is the heart of struggles. And much of violence is a
political struggle over control of the state.
Chpt.14
3.5 Blaming the Islamists

Extremist Islamic movements and terrorist group use religion as a political tool.
Analysis-------------------- Form an IPE perspective,
some of the roots of these movements can be found in economic troubles
and political repression: rising unemployment and inequality.
 At another level of analysis,
these groups are reflecting a change of ideas within the Muslim world:
more “fundamentalists” on Islam, more madrasas that taught a form of
chauvinistic Islam........
 In terms of the globalization,
extremists are adept at using modern technology; also, they are a reaction to the
perceived humiliation of Middle Eastern countries by the Americans, Europeans, and
Israelis.
Chpt.14
3.6 Misconceptions About Insurgency, Instability,
and WMD in the Middle East
Several common misconceptions about Middle East terrorism:
• “Islamic terrorist” are not necessarily the main group using violence.
• The MENA is hardly alone eager to acquire and use WMD or proscribed weapons.
• Historically, violence has been used by movements seeking independence from colonial rule or
liberation from oppression.
• The MENA is hardly the only region in the world where groups
instrumentalize religion in pursuit of violent political goals.
• Despite the persistence of insecurity in some parts of the region,
most of the MENA’s citizens do not face violence daily.
Chpt.14
3.7 Cooperation at the Interstate
and the Human Level
The Interstate Level-----------------There are many enduring forms of state-to-state cooperation in the MENA, and positive relations
with Western powers.
E.g
external: the Treaty of Friendship and Amity between the U.S. and Morocco in 1787;
the U.S. helped liberate North Africa from Fascism in WWII;
NATO has secured Turkey;
Internal: the Arab League, the Gulf Cooperation Council
The Human Level------------------- Some of the most robust and sustained cooperation occurs within cross-national human networks.
 On the individual level, emigration and dual citizenship tie Europe and the United States rather
closely to the Middle East.
Chpt.14
4. Facing The Global Economy:
Integration Or Marginalization？
4.1 Context
4.2 Oil, Industry, and Growth
4.3 Trade and Investment with Europe
and the United States
4.4 Globalization in the GCC
4.5 The Falling-Behind Thesis
4.6 Challenge of the Historical Legacy
4.7 Limits and Problems
4.8 The Basket cases
Chpt.14
4.1 Context
There is a significant debate about whether the MENA is “keeping up” with globalization or
“falling behind” the rest of the world.
 Two different hypotheses about economic process in the region:
→ MENA is successfully integrating itself into
the global economy and preparing for a
sustainable future.
→ The region becomes increasingly uncompetitive
and marginal, failing to switch to high-growth
economies that can resolve sociocultural
problems.
Chpt.14
4.2 Oil, Industry, and Growth
Oil exporters------
Non-oil exporters---they developed on a variety of paths
 1973-1984 were a golden age for oil exporters that
raised incomes dramatically and expanded
infrastructure.
 From 1985 to 1999, adjusted for inflation, oil prices
were in a slump, lowering growth rated throughout
the region.
 But since 2000, oil prices have recovered nicely as
a result of OPEC production cuts and rising demand
from China.
 Take Saudi Arabia as example, it has taken
advantage of its abundant hydrocarbons to expand
into energy-intensive industries that benefit from
subsidized domestic oil.
 Dubai has transformed itself from a desert
backwater into a transportation, financial,
and tourist hub;
 Tunisia has adopted an export-oriented
strategy;
 Israel is a standout case, more developed
an globalized than any other MENA
country. It had transformed itself from a
state-dominated economy to a diversified
industrial economy exporting mostly hightechnology products.
Chpt.14
4.3 Trade and Investment with Europe and U.S
 MENA countries are being integrated into the global economy
through the World Trade Organization, free-trade agreements,
and bilateral agreements with Europe and the U.S.
 The Euro-Mediterranean Partnership (EMP)
 A Middle East Free-Trade Area
 The region is a major importer of machinery, aircraft, vehicles,
grains, engineering services, and weapons from the U.S..
Petrodollar recycling:
recycle oil profits back to oil-consuming countries in the form of
investments in stock markets, purchases of real estate, and
deposits in Western banks.
Remittances:
money transferred by foreign workers to their home countries--also strongly integrate people in Europe and the Middle East.
Chpt.14
4.4 Globalization in the Gulf Cooperation Council
Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC)
-----Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Oman, Bahrain, and Qatar
The six countries in the GCC are deeply integrated into the global economy not just through oil
exports and SWFs but also via their labor markets.
 On the one hand, the GCC has benefited
enormously from skills and low labor costs
of its internationalized workforce;
 On the other hand, the region’s ruling families
are increasing worried about the political and
cultural dangers from heavy reliance on
foreigners.
Non-GCC countries are also turning to expatriate labor, which ca usually be taken advertage of
more easily than domestic workers.
Chpt.14
4.5 The Falling-Behind Thesis
Also, there is a powerful counterargument that-------the Middle East is falling behind other modernizing countries and failing
to move up in the global hierarchy.
 There is little technological or industrial dynamism;
 Politically the region has largely been out of step
with the rest of the world;
 Many countries’s economies are still dominated by
inefficient state-owned enterprises and unprofitable
public banks;
 Periodic conflict and threats of violence have
stunted foreign investment.
Chpt.14
4.6 The Challenge of the Historical Legacy
Challenge of the Historical Legacy ------------
A. Colonial powers left many unfortunate legacies.
 Overdependence on a single, exported commodity slowed economic diversification ;
 Colonial regulations stifled educational opportunities and growth of an indigenous private
sector.
B. Many countries adopted development policies that were popular and even
beneficial in the short term but that eventually, by the 1980s, were burdening the
economy.
 Agrarian reform, land redistribution lowered agricultural productivity;
 High tariff barriers, government subsidies, price controls......
 Development troubles came to a head in most of the region by the early 1980s.
---------Unemployment and foreign debt
Chpt.14
4.7 Limits and Problems
Limits on Free Trade ---------------• Large numbers of states that have yet to join the WTO are in the
Middle East. And the region also has high average tariff levels;
• The MENA has not significantly diversified its exports;
• Surprisingly little investment and trade occurs between MENA
countries;
• Some MENA nations have growing illicit trade connections with
the global economy.
Social Problems ------------------ Underutilization of female capital has been a substantial drag on Mena economies.
 Education appropriate for the needs of the global market is still lacking.
 Some intrusive governments have hampered growth of dynamic private sectors.
It is inaccurate, however, to say that Middle East lacks a culture of entrepreneurship. Economic dynamism in
the private sector is particularly strong in Israel, Lebanon, Turkey, and Morocco.
Chpt.14
4.8 The Basket Cases
The worst performers in the region are Iraq, Yemen, and the Palestinian Territories.
 Iraq:
long term of international economic sanctions;
the middle class largely collapsed;
widespread insecurity after the U.S. invasion;
the inefficient aid.
 Yemen:
with a large, poor rural population, Yemen's government has never had strong control over
its territory.
 The Palestinian Territories:
as a result of deliberate Israeli policies to isolate the territories from international trade
and prevent Palestinians from working in Israel.
Chpt.14
5. The Challenge Of Democracy
---How can we explain why
most of the regions
countries have not
adopted democracy?
---There are also some
optimistic opinions about
MENA’s democracy.
Chpt.14
5. The Challenge Of Democracy ---(1)
The Middle East stands out for its apparent resistance to democracy.
How can we explain why most of the regions countries have not adopted democracy?

The west:
it was the European powers that colonized much of the region and created many “artificial states”,
and the U.S. largely tolerated regional allies’ repression of Islamist parties.

The oil & rentier state:
the MENA nations are heavily dependent on oil and gas income and there are fewer demands for
representation.

Weak civil society:
social groups face significant legal restrictions in the MENA and often do not have the finances o
sustain a long confrontation with the government.

The Islam:
political culture in pre-dominantly Muslim countries, to the extent that it reaffirms patriarchy,
delegitimizes minority rights, and devalues secular thought, may create an inhospitable
environment for freedom.
Chpt.14
5. The Challenge Of Democracy ---(2)
Also there someone optimistic about MENA’s democracy:
 Most of the large, “mainstream” Islamist movements, such as Egypt’s Muslim
Brotherhood, behave like the opposition political parities everywhere in the world,
seeking to build large coalitions to come to power through elections and improve
their societies.
 Optimists dispute the assertion that undemocratic values are pervasive in the region.
 Public opinion polls indicate that people in the MENA support democracy in large numbers.
 Economic development and social mobility may increase democratic pressures.
 Globalization and technological change are undermining information monopolies that
governments
held until quite recently.
Thanks !
2013 . 6
110329_Tsinghua_final_02.pptx