Transcript Shumen Region Bulgaria.Case Study Report.

Shumen Region
Bulgaria
Case Study Report
Julia Spiridonova
Location and History
• Territory - 3,390 km2
• Population - 180 528 or 2.5 % of
total population
• 10 municipalities, 152 settlements
• Administrative center - Shoumen
city - 45% of regional population
• 63% - low degree of urbanization
(75%-BG)
• Relative peripherality - far from the
Western Europe, Sofia, near Varna
as an important hinterland,
supporting the development of
Varna as economic and touristic
center and of the entire Black Sea
coastal area
Specifics
• Unique anthropogenic touristic resources
– in the year 681 the First Bulgarian State was founded here. Here
are ancient Bulgarian capitals Pliska and Veliki Preslav; the
declared and promulgated immobile cultural landmarks amount
to 629 sites (including 1 of world significance and 147 of national
significance), an acute need of investments in conservation and
exhibition of the sites, as well as in touristic infrastructure;
• Ethnic situation – with the socio-economic implications
– Bulgarian ethnic group - 59.2 % of the inh.at 84.8% BG
average;Turkish ethnic group - 30.3 % of all the inhabitants as
compared to 8.8 % country average;Roma population is 8.3 %
at 4.9 % country average.
• The structure of the local economy is not coparable with that of the
country
– The agrarian sector plays an important role with a share of 13%
of the GVA. Industry accounts for about 30% and the services
account for the remaining 57%.
• Significant agroecological potential for diverse and highly effective
agriculture
Starting positions in 1989
• The structure inherited before the transition period was with a high
share of the agrarian and food sector and well-developed
manufacturing entities in the transport vehicle engineering and
silicate production:
– In Shumen region used to operate one of the biggest plants for
manufacture of heavy-duty trucks in the Eastern block –
“Madara” Shumen and manufacturing facilities supporting shipbuilding, strongly developed in the neighboring Varna region, as
well as other large-scale production facilities, including for
production of non-ferrous metals and mineral raw materials.
– With the breakdown of the COMECON market these production
facilities were almost liquidated.
• A small portion of the former industrial installations have survived
thanks to the profound restructuring processes, whereat they have
reduced their scale down to 15-30% of their previous size, as for
instance the “Madara” works, the food-and-beverages industry, the
textile factories;
Main socio-economic Trends
• Between the 2 last census the rate of population decline is higher
than the national average (-11%), but nevertheless the region
continues to demonstrate a more favorable demographic picture
because of the better age structure;
• The persons with higher education between 25 and 64 years of age
represented 20 % /on the average for Bulgaria 35%/. The persons
with high school education are 38 % of the total (national average
43%).
- The district gains from the existence of the Shumen University with 5
098 students /28 students per 1000 inh./. There are five faculties:
humanitarian sciences, mathematics and informatics, natural
sciences, engineering and pedagogical faculty.
- The human resources and more specifically its “drain” stands out as
a major problem of the region.
• On the other hand, the existence of high unemployment rate
(especially in the small municipalities) is a factor blocking regional
development.
GDP and GDP pet capita dynamics
1400
2.50%
1200
•
After the grave economic decline
during the 1990’es, economic
revitalization has been observed
during the period 2000-2008, but the
noted growth is not sufficient to catch
up with country average.
•
As a result of the observed dynamics
the contribution of the region to the
national GDP drops from 2.05% in
1997 to 1.47% in 2011.
•
During the period 1997 – 2008 the
GDP per capita values increase
steadily, but are still lower than the
national average and rather the
opposite holds true (from 97.4% GDP
per capita in 1995 it drops to 60% in
2011).
2.00%
1000
1.50%
800
600
1.00%
400
0.50%
200
0.00%
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97
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20
11
0
GDP
% of Total
7000
90.0%
80.0%
6000
70.0%
5000
60.0%
4000
50.0%
3000
40.0%
30.0%
2000
20.0%
1000
10.0%
0
0.0%
1997
1998 19991 2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
GDP per capita BGN
2005
2006
2007
% ot nat.average
2008
2009
2010
2011
Direction of structural changes
•
Regional GVA by sector
70.00%
60.00%
50.00%
Agrarian
40.00%
Industry
30.00%
Services
20.00%
10.00%
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
0.00%
• A slow and unstable process
of sectoral changes in favour
of industrial development;
• The share of services (54.1%)
is below the national average
(65.6%) and does not copy the
national model of progressing
growth but has rather
conditional stationing ;
• This setback of the
tertiarisation process can partly
be explained by the
development of manufacturing
and construction reversing a
long-standing downward trend.
• The agrarian sector manifested
the most significant structural
change – from 42.8% in 1997
to 13.8% in 2011.
Regional labour market
Registered unemployment rate
30.00
•
The labour market has undergone
significant transformations during the
past 15-20 years.
•
In 2013 the unemployment problem
was the gravest in the municipalities
of Kaolinovo (60.81%), Nikola
Kozlevo (57.09%), Venets (56.27%)
and Varbitsa (46.21%). In the past 15
years the highest unemployment rate
in the country were reported for the
municipalities of Nikola Kozlevo and
Kaolinovo).
•
According to the LFS Shumen District
is characterized by the highest values
for unemployment level during the last
10 years (26.6%) in BG. This is due to
the fact that a large share of the
unemployed persons are long-term
unemployed and do not register at the
labour offices, since are no more
entitled to unemployment aid.
25.00
20.00
15.00
10.00
5.00
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95
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97
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98
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0.00
Bulgaria
Shumen
70.00
60.00
Bulgaria
Shumen
50.00
Veliki Preslav
Venets
Varbitsa
40.00
Kaolinovo
Kaspichan
30.00
Nikola Kozlevo
Novi Pazar
Smyadovo
20.00
Hitrino
Shumen
10.00
0.00
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Scale of social problems
• The most serious problem for the population of the
region represents the standard of living. Over half of
those surveyed citizens to varying degrees dissatisfied
with their standard compared to 24 % who are satisfied.
This is related to the economic situation in the region.
• The share of household members with low intensity of
economic activeness is relatively high – 13.8% as
compared to 10.1% for the country.
• People, living under conditions of material deprivation,
account for 48.3% of the population of the district.
• The relative share of the poor as regards the poverty line
for the region has increased from 16.8% in 2008 to
22.6% in 2012.
Interregional disparities
• There is a significant difference in the economic
development of the municipalities within the Shumen
region. Regional differences are manifested in the
performance levels of all aspects of the operation and
development of the labour market - employment,
unemployment, wages, labour productivity, educational
and professional qualification, demographic structure of
the workforce, social standards of living.
• Contrasts between "center" and "periphery " (between
"West - East“ axis, including municipalities Shumen,
Kaspichan, Novi Pazar and Veliki Preslav and lagging
northern and southern periphery and rural areas).
Factors of regional development
Exogenous factors
• Low attractiveness for FDIs contributed to substantial
growth due. FDI have a token share (0.5% ) of the total
for the country. The strategic foreign investments are the
following: the Turkish company Faf Metal, which owns
the majority share of Alcomet AD; the Danish company
Carlsberg - a major shareholder in ShoumenskoPivo AD;
the Spanish company Roca - a major shareholder in
Faience AD, Kaspichan town. Other companies with
foreign participation are: Mebel Gen AD, Seres Glass
AD, Novi Pazar, Teba Glass OOD, Novi Pazar and
others,
• Low degree of internationalization of SMEs and the need
to expand export orientation and internationalization of
the SMEs.
• Weak national regional policy – mainly trough Cohesion
policy support
Factors of regional development
Endogenous factors
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•
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Low entrepreneurship ability and development;
Low productivity and relatively low competitiveness, based primarily on cost
factors;
The idea of creating the high-tech park - Shumen has remained dormant
and replaced with existing projects for industrial park.
The existing R&D potential is limited and hence does not contribute for
development of the innovation potential of the region. The number of
functioning R&D institutions is very small and is concentrated in the city of
Shumen. It is represented by the Institute of Agriculture and the R&D
divisions with the bigger enterprises.
Ongoing process of deleveraging (not updated capital used for research)
and deskilling ( the working age population is not actively involved in
continuing education and are not perceived as a way of improving
professional development ) are factors having negative effects on the
productivity and competitiveness of the regional economy.
Factors of regional development
Endogenous factors
- Significant discrepancy between actual staffing needs of the
labour market and specialties offered in vocational schools in
the region;
- Not secured financially storage, socialization and
commercialization of cultural and historical heritage and
natural resources through tourism;
• Health and education are also not in good condition. Although
the demographic structure of the population is relatively
favorable, the risk of deterioration due to its many problem
areas that reduce quality of life.
• The region has a reliable connection to the main transport
corridors, via which a relatively easy access is obtained to the
neighboring countries and to important centers in BG.
Factors of regional development
Regional institutions and policies
• System of regional planning. The process of planning has indication
of formality. Hierarchical subordination and compliance with related
strategic documents are incomplete. Coordination of sectoral
policies and programmes is partial. In CSF missing directions
"Territorial Cooperationq integration and complementaraty". The
evaluation of the coordination of the use of CSF is unsatisfactory.
• The co-operation between different actors is not effective and
efficient
• According to the conducted interviews, the major remark concerning
the operation of the administration concerns the speed of
responding to challenges.
• The need for the development of local business and technological
environment have been identified several groups of factors that
depend to a greater or lesser extent by the local administration and
the influence of the environment for doing business. These are
factors such as local tax policy, employment of local administration,
economic activity, procedures for construction permits, perception of
corruption, the availability and supply of e-governance, adequate
production sites and more.
Factors of regional development
EU membership
• The membership in the EU is evaluated positively by all
the interviewed stakeholders for regional development.
Part of the respondents, however, remark that the
membership in the EU has failed as yet to influence
substantially the development of a number of key
spheres, like for instance improvement of the
competitiveness of Bulgarian companies, agriculture,
protection of the environment, R&D and science, social
policies but they noted the positive EU inputs.
• At the same time, under the circumstances of crisis and
post-crisis recovery (which as a period coincides with the
beginning of the membership of Bulgaria in the EU), in a
situation of limited investment resources, the EU funds
and operational programmes offer one opportunity to
enhance regional development and their full and
effective utilization is an important function of the state
and its administration.
Future prospects
• Close the gap in terms of quantity and
quality of growth factors - the need for
targeted support of the main factors /
sources of growth - regional components;
• Finding a suitable intervention system for
displaying Shumen region of the spiral of
socio-economic gap, marginalization and
demographic risk.
Thank you