Transcript Rijksoverheid presentatie

Economic Report
Vietnam 2015Q1
Presented by Vu Thi Diep and Bernhard Kelkes
Netherlands Embassy Hanoi | 14 April 2015
Content
•
Vietnam’s Economy
•
Bilateral Trade and Investment
Netherlands Embassy Hanoi | 14 April 2015
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Vietnam’s Economy
Netherlands Embassy Hanoi | 14 April 2015
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3
GDP Growth
Highest first quarter growth in 4 years. Highest growth sectors:
industry and construction (+8.35%; 34.8% of GDP), services (+5.82%; 42.23% of GDP) and agro-fisheries (+2.14%; 12.35% of GDP)
Yearly GDP Growth
9%
8.5%
8.4%
9%
7.8%
8%
8%
7%
2012
2013
2014
2015
6.96%
8.2%
7%
7.3%
6.8%
7%
7%
Quarterly GDP Growth
8%
6.2%
5%
5%
4%
6.0%
6.2%
5.54%
6%
5.25%
5.00%
4.80%
5.05%
5%
Quarter 2
Quarter 3
5.4%
6%
5.3%
5.0%
4.96%
4.76%
4.75%
6.04%
5.44%
5%
4%
Quarter 1
Netherlands Embassy Hanoi | 14 April 2015
6.19%
6%
5.9%
6%
2015Q1
6.03%
Quarter 4
4
Inflation
Low domestic demand led to an inflation increase of only 0.74% (compared to 2014Q1), which is the lowest increase since a decade. However, monthly
inflation rates are increasing from 0.3% in February to 0.9% in March.
Consumer Price Index per Quarter
Consumer Price Index (CPI) per Year
18%
2012
25%
16%
22.90%
15.95%
14%
20%
18.60%
2013
12.20%
12%
2014
2015
9.96%
15%
10%
11.80%
10%
7.80% 8.30% 7.40%
8%
9.21%
8.90%
6.90%
6%
6.60%
5%
3.20%
0%
6.91%
4.09%
5.00%
4.83%
6.73%
4.77%
6.04%
5.44%
3.62%
4%
2%
6.83%
2.56%
2015Q1
0.74%
0%
Quarter 1
Netherlands Embassy Hanoi | 14 April 2015
Quarter 2
Quarter 3
Quarter 4
5
Foreign Direct Investment (FDI)
Strong increase in newly registered FDI (40.6% from 1 Jan – 20 Mar 2015), but total amount of newly registered
plus additionally financed projects decreased by 44.9%. Disbursed FDI increased by 7% (USD 3.05bn)
70
64.01
1600
60
1287
1171
USD billion
50
970
40
1400
1275
1091
1200
987
839
811
1000
833
800
30
21.5
21.35
20
12
10
4.55
2.9
6.84
3.3
8
11.6
600
18.6
14.7
16.3
14.3
10
11
4.1
11
10.46
11.5
15.6
12.3
Number of projects authorised
1544
0
2015Q1
1800
1588
+40.6%
-44.9%
+7.1%
New and Additionally
Financed FDI
Disbursed FDI
400
200
0
Newly Registered FDI
267 projects
Registered (USD bln.)
Disbursed (USD bln.)
Netherlands Embassy Hanoi | 14 April 2015
Number of projects
6
Export and import (USD bn.)
2015Q1
298.0
300
263.5
250
229.0
203.7
200
131.3
157.1
143.4
150
111.3
84.7
100
58.5
50
148.0
32.0
69.2
36.8
80.7
62.8
106.7
127.0
39.8
48.6
2005
2006
2007
Export (USD bn)
+16.3%
Export USD 35.7bn
Import USD 37.5bn
-1.8bn
USD
84.8
62.7
57.1
2008
2009
Import (USD bn)
Netherlands Embassy Hanoi | 14 April 2015
+ 6.9%
69.9
44.9
26.5 32.4
0
2004
114.3
96.9
72.2
2010
2011
114.6
2012
132.2
2013
150.0
Trade Deficit of which
Foreign USD2bn surplus
Domestic USD3.8bn deficit
(Gov.target <5% exports)
2014
Trade volume (USD bn)
7
Export and import
Export
70%
Foreign
Top 5 export destinations
Top 5 export items
Domestic/Foreign Invested
1.
EU: USD 6.9bn. (+14.2%)
1.
Telephones and accessories: USD6.7bn. (+21.9%)
Domestic sector: USD 10.6bn (-5.1%)
2.
USA: USD6.9bn. (+12.5%)
2.
Textiles and garments: USD4.8bn. (+7,8%)
FDI sector: USD 25.1bn (+12.9%)
3.
ASEAN: USD4.5bn. (-1.4%)
3.
Computers and components: USD 3.6bn. (+65,4%)
4.
China: USD3.5bn. (-6.2%)
4.
Footwear: USD2.5bn. (+1.8%)
5.
Japan: USD3.3bn. (-10.9%)
5.
Machinery and spare parts: USD1.8bn. (+16,7%)
Import
62%
Foreign
Top 5 import destinations
Top 5 import items
Domestic/Foreign Invested
1.
China: USD11.6bn. (+31.5%)
1.
Machinery and spare parts: USD6.9bn. (+44,4%)
Domestic sector: USD 14.4bn (+5.7%)
(trade deficit USD8.1 billion, +58.5%)
2.
Computers and components: USD5.5bn. (+31.1%)
FDI sector: USD 23.1bn (+6.6%)
2.
Korea: USD 6.2bn. (+12.1%)
3.
Telephones and spare parts: USD2.6bn. (+25.0%)
3.
ASEAN: USD5.4bn. (+2.3%)
4.
Fabrics: USD1.9bn. (+1.7%)
4.
Japan: USD 3.3bn. (+31.5%)
5.
Steel: USD1.5bn. (+1.6%)
5.
EU: USD 2.1bn. (+9.8%)
Netherlands Embassy Hanoi | 14 April 2015
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Other Economic Issues
Macroeconomic stability must be remained and there is urgent need to accelerate
the pace of structural reforms and the fight of red tape and corruption to fully reap Vietnam’s growth potential…
Limited added value and
no spillover foreign
companies
Slow SoE reform
Slow financial sector reform
Large public debt
Limited progress improving
business climate and
tackling corruption
Vietnam imports around 90%
Slow SoE reform in 2015Q1
NPL ratio stood at 3.25% at the
Budget deficit expected to be
Vietnam fell 6 places in World
of its export value. The ratio
with 29 SOEs equitised (target
end of 2014 according to SBV (but
around 5% at the end of 2015.
Bank’s Doing Business 2015 report
of micro businesses is around
2015 is 289, in 2014 143 SoEs
NPL rate according to international
Public debt may reach 60% at
(78/189) on ‘ease of doing
97% and they are struggling
were equitised). However,
standards is probably much
the end of 2016 according to
business’, compared to 2014 and is
to access export markets
some major IPO’s and M&A’s
higher). Total number of banks to
ADB as the Gov. tax base is
falling behind regional countries like
(just 21% of Vietnamese
expected this year (20%
be reduced from 40 to 15 by 2017
eroding due to reductions in
Malaysia and Thailand. Vietnam’s
SMEs participate in global
Vietnam Airlines, M&A’s in
and for this year 6 bank mergers
corporate income tax rates, the
score in Global Corruption
supply chains). In Q1 19,049
banking sector, etc.).
expected.
removal of tariffs, exemptions
Perception Index (31/100, ranking
companies were established,
Investment Law requirements
for favored firms and lower oil
119 globally) remains unchanged
against 16,175 which
for foreign investors eased as
prices.
for three consecutive years (2012-
stopped operations. Better
from 1 July 2015.
2014).
education and access to
credit are key. Credit growth
2015Q1 just 1.25% (but
expected 15-17% in 2015).
Netherlands Embassy Hanoi | 14 April 2015
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Bilateral Trade and Investment
Netherlands Embassy Hanoi | 14 April 2015
10
Top 10 Investors in Vietnam
Newly registered FDI 2015Q1
(USD million)
No
Country
Cumulative FDI as of March 2015
(USD billion)
Registered FDI
Projects
No
Country
Registered FDI
Projects
1
Korea
314.2
89
1
Korea
38.1
4279
2
British Virgin
Islands
306.4
5
2
Japan
37.5
2584
3
Japan
136.9
53
3
Singapore
33.1
1392
4
Singapore
114.8
24
4
Taiwan
28.5
2401
5
USA
67.8
8
5
British Virgin
Islands
18.3
556
6
Hongkong
45.1
13
6
Hongkong
15.7
896
7
Thailand
43.6
6
7
USA
11.1
735
8
Taiwan
42.3
14
8
Malaysia
10.8
491
9
India
24.6
2
9
China
8.0
1112
10
UK
20.9
5
10
Thailand
6.8
385
17
Netherlands
5.7
3
11
Netherlands
6.6
233
Netherlands Embassy Hanoi | 14 April 2015
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Top 10 EU Investors in Vietnam
Newly registered FDI 2015Q1
(USD million)
No
Country
Cumulative FDI as of March 2015
(USD billion)
Registered FDI
(mn.)
Projects
No
Country
Registered FDI
Projects
1
UK
20.9
5
1
Netherlands
6.6
233
2
Germany
12.4
3
2
France
3.4
429
3
Netherlands
5.7
3
3
UK
3.2
204
4
France
2.4
2
4
Switzerland
1.9
104
5
Italia
0.7
3
5
Luxembourg
1.6
32
6
Switzerland
0.6
2
6
Germany
1.4
250
7
Denmark
0.4
1
7
Cyprus
0.96
13
8
Ukrain
0.05
1
8
Denmark
0.7
113
9
Belgium
0.05
1
9
Belgium
0.4
57
10
Poland
0.02
1
10
Italy
0.38
64
Netherlands Embassy Hanoi | 14 April 2015
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Trade | Main EU Trading Partners
Germany
375.3
Netherlands
914.9
64.3
UK
630.4
88.4
200.8
France
190.1
Austria
55.3
Belgium
57.7
Sweden
34.6
636.7
413.7
351.5
262.2
139
11.9%
603.8
444.5
366.4
Poland 23 92.8
658.2
1689
93.0
Spain
694.7
568.6
Italy
1290.2
Market share
421.7
319.9
173.6
115.8
0
200
USD million
Netherlands Embassy Hanoi | 14 April 2015
400
600
Export to VN
800
Import from VN
1000
1200
1400
Total trade
13
Trade | Bilateral Trade (USD million)
4500
2015Q1 vs. 2014Q1
4000
3,615 3,852
3500
3,180
3000
2500
2,937
2000
1,406
1500
920
1000
500
3,348
2,027
517
550
387 400
130 150
0
2004
2005
1,100
720
490
600
700
976
USD 64M
1,017
320
400
430
317
481
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Netherlands Embassy Hanoi | 14 April 2015
USD 630M
Export NL to
Vietnam
1,546
230
Export to Vietnam
-33%
Export VN to NL
2,476
1,334
+50%
704
678
2012
2013
Export to the Netherlands
504
2014
Total trade
14
Trade | Bilateral Trade
+35%
Total Trade: USD 695M
Computers and spare parts
149
Telephones and spare parts
104
Footwear
78
Textile
Machinery and spareparts
66
31
USD million
Netherlands Embassy Hanoi | 14 April 2015
Machinery tools and spare parts
13.5
6.7
Automobile accessorises and spare parts
6.2
Chemical products
Milk and dairy products
5.4
2.9
Plastics
USD million
15
Thank you!
© Embassy of the Kingdom of the Netherlands
BIDV Building, 7th Floor, 194 Tran Quang Khai Street
Hoan Kiem District, Hanoi, Vietnam
[email protected]
Sources:
Statistics: Vietnam General Statistics Office, GSO
Vietnam Foreign Investment Agency, FIA
Maps: www.freevectormaps.com, Pictures: Holland Branding
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