Transcript high unemployment rates

Driven to Extremes
Has Growth in Automobile Use Ended?
May 23, 2013
The National Transportation Systems Center
Advancing transportation innovation for the public good
U.S. Department of Transportation
Research and Innovative Technology Administration
John A. Volpe National Transportation Systems Center
Background

This analysis is based on travel demand research sponsored
by the Federal Highway Administration, Office of Highway
Policy Information

Research focus is on estimating and forecasting vehicle miles
traveled and vehicle hours of travel

Note: the views and opinions expressed by Volpe in this presentation do not
necessarily represent those of FHWA
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Automobile Use No Longer Tracks GDP
Automobile Travel and Real GDP
4.0
LDV VMT
Real GDP
3.5
Index (1966 = 1)
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
1966
1971
1976
1981
1986
1991
1996
2001
2006
2011
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This Recession Has Been Different
VMT as a Percent of Pre-Recession Level
Nov 1973 - Mar 1975
Jan-July 1980
July 1981 - Nov 1982
July 1990 - Mar 1991
Mar 2001 - Nov 2001
Dec 2007 - June 2009
120%
110%
100%
90%
0
12
24
36
Months Since Start of Recession
48
60
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Who’s Driving Less? Almost All Men…
Annual Miles Driven by Age -- Men
16-19
20-34
35-54
55-64
65+
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
0
1969
1977
1983
1990
1995
2001
2009
5
…but Only Younger Women
Annual Miles Driven by Age -- Women
16-19
20-34
35-54
55-64
65+
15,000
10,000
5,000
0
1969
1977
1983
1990
1995
2001
2009
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Some Causes Aren’t New

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Baby boom cohort began moving out of peak driving
years (mid-30s through mid-50s) in about 2000, and
continues to do so
Rising household income boosted car ownership and use
through the 1970s and 1980s, but its effect has
weakened considerably since then
Pace of suburbanization has been slowing gradually for
several decades
Costs of owning and maintaining a car rose rapidly during
1980s and 1990s
The highway building boom was over by 1980
Graduated licensing programs began to reduce teen
driving in the 1990s
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…but Others Are New


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Fraction of population holding jobs is down drastically since
the early 2000s, particularly among young adults
Recent declines in income have been largest among
households where its effect on driving is strongest
Gasoline prices up sharply since 2005, and much more volatile
Young households’ debt burdens – primarily from student
loans – are higher than a decade ago, making home and car
purchases difficult
Recent college graduates are having unprecedented difficulty
finding quality jobs
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Declines in Driving Exactly Mirror Job
Losses among Men
Percent Employed by Age -- Men
16-19
20-24
25-34
35-44
45-54
55+
100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
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…and it’s a Similar Story among Women
Percent Employed by Age -- Women
16-19
20-24
25-34
35-44
45-54
55+
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
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…but Even the Employed are Driving Less
Annual Miles Driven by Employment Status
Employed -- 2009
Not Employed -- 2009
Employed -- 2001
Not Employed -- 2001
15,000
10,000
5,000
0
16-20 21-25 26-30 31-35 36-40 41-45 46-50 51-55 56-60 61-65 66-70 71-75
76+
Age Category
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Income Losses Have Been Largest where
they Affect Driving the Most
12,000
4th Quintile
Annual Miles per Person
10,000
Middle Quintile
8,000
6,000
Highest
Quintile
2nd Quintile
Lowest
Quintile
4,000
2,000
0
< $10,000 $10,000 - $20,000 - $30,000 - $40,000 - $50,000 - $60,000 - $70,000 - $80,000 >
$20,000 $30,000 $40,000 $50,000 $60,000 $70,000 $80,000 $100,000 $100,000
Household Income Category
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Some Popular Explanations

New Travel Choices
 Increase in transit ridership since automobile use peaked accounts for less
than 1% of decline in automobile travel
 Increase in bicycle and walk trips only accounts for another 1% of the decline

Rise of Internet shopping
 Households average only 3 on-line purchases per month (vs. 40 shopping trips
by car), and 80% of on-line purchases require added truck travel for delivery
 Shopping trips were the only category of driving to increase in the last decade
 On-line shopping may still save some driving in search of specialized products

Substitution of teleworking for commuting
 Share of employed who work at home regularly increased from 3.5% in 1970
to 4.3% in 2010
 Annual commute trips by car has remained at about 350 per worker for
decades
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It’s too Early to Tell about Other Things

Growth in social media
 Little question that the young use them a lot more
 Do they really substitute for personal contact?

Resurgence in urban living
 So far, it seems concentrated among young, well-educated, high-income
adults (mostly without children), plus a few of the affluent retired
 Meanwhile, the rest of the population – and increasingly, their jobs –
continues to disperse

Car sharing as an alternative to ownership
 Data are still scarce, but car sharing and other short-term rental arrangements
appear to be growing rapidly
 But it’s not yet clear whether they substitute for car ownership or supplement
it, so we can’t yet tell whether they raise or lower total auto use
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Will Growth in Driving Resume?
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A “bounce” in driving is likely once the economy finally
recovers fully, but that could take a couple of more years
Even if growth in driving does resume, its pace will continue
to slow down over the future
Most future growth in driving will result from population
increases, not from increased driving per Capita
Some major uncertainties remain
 Income and employment prospects among the young and lower-income
households
 Future immigration rates and auto use patterns among recent immigrants
 Employment levels and auto use among older Americans, particularly women
 How household locations adjust to continuing suburbanization of jobs adjust
 How driving responds to continuing increases in car ownership costs and fuel
prices
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Why Should We Care?
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Highway Trust Fund revenues are unlikely to support historical
investment levels, but this is happening already
Congestion is unlikely to grow dramatically, except in selected
locations
Long-range transportation planning process is oriented
toward supporting capacity expansion to accommodate
growth, and may need to be re-thought
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Income Losses Have Been Largest where
they Affect Driving the Most
Changes in Mean Household Income (adjusted for inflation)
Time
Period
Lowest
Quintile
Second
Quintile
Middle
Quintile
Fourth
Quintile
Highest
Quintile
1970-80
9%
0%
2%
7%
8%
1980-90
7%
8%
8%
11%
20%
1990-2000
11%
10%
11%
14%
28%
2000-10
-15%
-11%
-8%
-5%
-6%
Source: computed from data reported in U.S. Bureau of the Census, Historical Income Tables, Table H-3,
Mean Household Income Received by Each Fifth and Top 5 Percent, All Races: 1967 to 2011.
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