Transcript Social Media in Foreign Elections

Social Media in Foreign
Elections
Shane Abinette
Three Countries
Armenia’s 2012 Parliamentary Elections
Korea’s 2012 Parliamentary Elections
France’s 2012 Presidential Election
Armenia’s 2012 Elections
7-10% on Facebook
18% on other Social Media sites
87% rely on TV for political news
Armenian Voters Mobilized?
Nope.
Minimal engagement by politicians with voters
Presidential election is more popular
Political News Source
87% TV
11% online
GDP per capita = $5,400
Social Media’s Role
Iditord.org : Voter fraud election report system
Site went down while polls were open, minimal reports of fraud
Government? Poor Internet Service?
Largest social media event during election
150 people hospitalized after balloons exploded at political rally
South Korea’s 2012 Election
Polls showed Democratic United (Liberal) and Saenuri
(Conservative) Parties tied
80% of internet users favored Liberals
Top 5 twitters were Liberal Politicians.
Can Twitter decide an election?
Voter Mobilization Online?
Election Results
Conservatives: -24 seats
Liberals: +38 seats
Final Score: 152 Conservatives and 127 Liberals
Media Analysts and Polls predicted a closer outcome
Twitter suggested Liberals may win
Presidential Election
Decemeber 2012
Polls are very close
Liberal Candidate ahead on Twitter
Round two!
France
75% on the web
25 of 77 Million have Facebook Accounts
74% Political News from TV
40% Political News from the Internet
France’s Social Media Election
Every candidate had a Twitter and Facebook (for the first
time)
Hollande Twitter count: 224,000
Sarkozy Twitter count: 157,000
Sarkozy Lost
Buzz Doesn’t Make You a
Winner
Social Media as a Predictor
Sarkozy’s Plate: Eurozone Debt Crisis
and 2008 Recession
11th Executive to lose office in Europe
Destined to lose?
Conclusions
Social media’s election prediction abilities are questionable
Liberals seem to be more active on the internet
References
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wpdyn/content/discussion/2009/06/17/DI2009061702232.html
http://blogs.salesforce.com/strategy/2012/05/whats-the-impact-of-social-media-on-thefrench-presidential-elections.html
http://articles.cnn.com/2012-04-19/opinion/opinion_france-election-social_1_socialmedia-social-tv-twitter/2?_s=PM:OPINION
http://globalvoicesonline.org/2012/07/16/social-media-and-armenias-2012parliamentary-elections/
http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/04/09/net-us-korea-politics-socialmediaidUSBRE8380BI20120409
http://www.aljazeera.com/news/asia-pacific/2012/04/20124110199508413.html
http://blogs.wsj.com/korearealtime/2012/04/12/odds-ends-a-day-after-the-election/