Transcript Titre de la présentation - FRANCE IRELAND CHAMBER OF

The Irish Economy
The revival of the Celtic Tiger
Sustained growth, above eurozone average
Ireland is the fastest-growing economy in Europe
% growth of real GDP
2014
5,2%
Ireland
7,8%
Ireland
2,9%
3,3%
Poland
3,5%
Spain
2,0%
Nederlands
2,0%
7.8% GDP
growth in
2015
2,9%
2,5%
UK
2,3%
2,8%
Sweden
1,6%
1,5%
Germany
France
1,5%
1,9%
EU 28
1,4%
Spain
3,1%
Eurozone
0,9%
1,5%
France
0,2%
1,1%
Italy
2015
The Irish economy should continue to grow faster than the
Eurozone in the next four years
Average annual growth rate 2016-2020
-0,4%
0,8%
Sources : CSO estimates and IMF forecasts
1,8%
Eurozone
1,6%
Germany
Italy
1,3%
1,1%
Sources : IMF World Economic Outlook (October 2015)
• Fastest EU
growth
• Strong growth
in years to
come, IMF
2
Strong growth built on external trade
Ireland's trade balance has been consistently positive throughout the crisis years, and has been
increasing in 2015
In EUR Billions
Imports
Exports
The weight of international trade in Irish GDP has increased in the past three years
Total trade at current prices (EUR bn) and in pp of gross GDP
Total trade
In pp of gross GDP
Trade balance
85,0%
12
84,7%
84,2%
10
81,5%
8
80,3%
6
4
178,1
2
0
146,5
148,6
144,2
2011
2012
2013
154,0
-2
-4
-6
-8
2006
2007
Source : CSO
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2014
2015
2015
Source : CSO
Large trade surplus
Increase in share of trade in GDP: 80.3% (‘13 ) vs 83.6% (‘15
3
Dynamic export sector presents opportunities for
French companies
The growth of Irish imports presents opportunities for French companies in several sectors
Irish imports in EUR billions and in % growth (2014-2015)
2014
Growth 2015
+ 19,9 % good exports (€111bn), FY 2015:
+ 33,3%
6
5
2015
+ 26,6%
+ 22,9%
• + 35.7% pharmaceutical products
• + 18.2% organic chemicals
+ 24,8%
4
3
2
1
0
+ 18,7%
+ 16,3% + 15,6%
+ 13,8%
+ 8,7%
+ 16,1%
+ 18,0%
+ 13,7%
+10.1% good imports (€67bn), FY2015:
•
•
•
•
+ 33.3% car imports
+ 26.6% pharmaceutical products
+ 24.8% organic chemicals
+ 22.9% IT equipment
Source : CSO
4
Bilateral trade with France - Goods
Due to differences in methodology, French and Irish statistics on bilateral
trade differ
EUR M
French exports
French imports
Trade balance
8 000
• France trade surplus vis-à-vis Ireland
(+€1.8bn), CSO
6 000
• France trade deficit vis-à-vis Ireland
(-€3.4bn), French customs
4 000
2 260
2 000
0
-2 000
-3 704
-4 000
-6 000
• Explantation: New methodology in
Irish national accounts, incorporating
aircraft imports of leasing companies
-8 000
CSO
French customs
Sources : CSO and French customs administration
5
Bilateral trade with France - Services
The Irish service trade surplus with France has widened,
reaching €3.2 bn in 2014
In EUR millions
Irish service exports
Irish service imports
IT services make up 58% of Irish service exports to France
Irish service exports to France (2014) - in %. Total = €5.4 bn
IT services
Business services
Financial services
Insurance and business services make up 71% of French service
exports to Ireland
French service exports to Ireland (2014) - in %. Total = €2.2 bn
Others
Tourism
Insurances
Business services
Others
6 000
12%
13%
5 000
16%
15%
4 000
Balance
:€3.2bn
58%
3 000
15%
28%
43%
2 000
1 000
Source : CSO
0
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Source : CSO
Source : CSO
Large trade surplus vis-à-vis France (+ €3.2bn, 2014)
• Irish exports in France (€5.4bn) dominated by IT services (58%)
• Irish imports from France (€2.bn) include business services (43%), tourism (16%) and
insurance (13%)
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Multinationals play central role in economy,
especially regarding exports
MNEs sales abroad made up over 2/3 of all Irish exports in 2014
MNEs exports - in EUR bn and in pp of total exports
MNEs exports (€bn)
65,9%
65,1%
MNEs provide 9.5% of all Irish jobs in 2015, up from 7.9% in 2010
Employment in MNEs - In number of jobs and in pp of total employment
% of total exports
65,0%
% of total employment
9,5%
66,0%
105,3
2010
Source : CSO and IDA
122,0
124,5
2011
2012
2013
8,8%
146 628
159 191
167 357
174 488
152 223
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
8,3%
141,9
2014
9,0%
8,6%
7,9%
61,5%
116,1
% de l'emploi total
187 056
2015
Source : CSO and IDA
Multinationals:
• Exported €142bn of goods and services (2014), i.e. 2/3 of exports
• Employ 187,056 people (2015), i.e. ≈ 10% of total workforce
• Account for 2-3 pp of GDP growth in 2015
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Multinationals impact Irish growth in many
ways
Evolution of remittances and dividends transferred abroad (NFIA*)
In EUR M and in pp of GDP
Annual NFIA**
7.8% growth in GDP (2015)
NFIA (% GDP***) - right axis
35 000
25%
30 000
20%
25 000
15%
20 000
15 000
Multinationals
2-3%
Domestic sector
4-5%
10%
10 000
5%
5 000
0
0%
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015**
* Net Factor Income from Abroad ** Three quarters *** GDP = GNP + NFIA
Source : CSO
Payment of dividends abroad
BEPS : encourage multinationals to further reside profits in Ireland (12,5%
corporation tax)
Profit relocalisation in Ireland
Fiscal domiciliation: some companies relocate their headquartersin Ireland to
benefit from the 12.5 corporate tax rate, without having significant operational
activities there (« Redomiciled Plcs »)
Investments in R&D
Knowledge Development Box : 6.25% tax on profits from patent development in
Ireland (1st January 2016)
8
Consumption and investment benefiting from
‘catch-up’ effect
The number of vehicles licenced for the first time has jumped back to its 2009 level
Number of vehicles licenced for the first time - annual data
200 000
Irish GFCF (excluding aircrafts and intangibles) is less reliant on the construction sector and
is back to its pre-crisis level
Gross fixed capital formation in EUR Bn and in pp of nominal GDP
Aircrafts
Intangibles
180 000
Machinery and equipment (excl. Aircrafts)
Construction
160 000
GFCF excl. aircrafts and intang. (%GDP - right axis)
Total GFCF (%GDP - right axis)
60
40%
140 000
50
120 000
100 000
40
80 000
30
60 000
28,7%
30%
22,0%
22,8%
17,8%
20
20%
10,8%
9,2%
40 000
10%
10
20 000
0
0
0%
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Source : CSO
Source : CSO
Strong rebound in private consumption and investment:
• 120,000 new cars licensed (2015), i.e. + 66,700 since 2009
• Private investment recovering since 2010: + €17,6bn (22% of GDP vs. 17.8% in 2010)
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Although led by exports until 2013, growth
rebalancing itself toward domestic demand
GDP growth was entirely reliant on internal demand in 2015, particularly on investment
Evolution of real GDP in EUR
Contributions à la croissance
En% de variation du PIB à prix constants
Consommation privée
Dépenses publiques
Investissement
Exportations nettes
PIB réel
+7,8%
9%
+11,3
6%
+3,1
-0,19
3%
201,7
0%
187,2
-3%
-6%
GDP 2014
-9%
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Source : CSO (données préliminaires pour 2015)
2013
2014
Private consumption
Public expenses
Investment
GDP 2015
2015
Source : CSO (preliminary estimates for 2015)
• 2008-2009: External trade only positive contribution to GDP
• Continued to lead growth 2011-2013
• Since 2014, growth rebalancing towards domestic demand:
• More investment: + 28.2% of GFCF in 2015 (contributed 6 pp to GDP growth)
• More private consumption: positive contribution to growth since 2014
10
Reduction in private debt
Irish households and firms are engaged in a long deleveraging process
Irish private sector debt held by Irish banks - in EUR billions
Households
200
180
160
140
120
100
Non-financial enterprises
Gradual decline in private debt:
• €143bn (Nov ‘15) vs. €318bn (Jan
‘09)
• 74% of GDP (Nov ‘15) vs. 188%
(Jan ‘09)
80
60
40
20
0
Rapid deleveraging of companies:
• - €116bn ( Jan ’09 - Nov ‘15)
Source : Central Bank of Ireland
11
Labour market benefitting from economic
recovery
The Irish labour market has also recovered strongly since 2011, with 140,000
new jobs and a 3.5% increase in earnings
Jobs
2 100 000
Avera ge weekly earnings* (€)
638,1
635,4
2 050 000
+ 140,000 jobs since 2011:
• 42% of jobs in Dublin
• 56% of jobs in tertiary sector
2 000 000
624,4
622,6
1 950 000
621,9
Increase in salaries:
618,1
1 900 000
1 850 000
614,2
614,8
2010
2011
• Average weekly salary in
private sector €635.40 (2015),
i.e. + 3.5% than 2010
1 800 000
1 750 000
1 700 000
2008
2009
2012
2013
2014
2015
* In the pri va te s ector
Source : CSO
12
Rapid growth in household income and
expenditure
Irish private consumption growth is stifled by high debt repayments
In pp of Gross Disposable Income (GNI)
Propensity to consume 2015
• +10.3% gross household disposable
income (3Q 2013 vs. 3Q 2014)
Var.% GDI 2015/2014*
+15,1%
+10,3%
+2,2%
+3,5%
72,9%
+0,6%
68,5%
79,7%
• +10.2% private expenditure (2015
vs. 2012)
+2,4%
86,4%
71,2%
70,3%
• Weak propensity to consume
(68.5%, 2015) linked to debt
repayments:
• Return to precrisis levels of
consumption (80%) should reinforce
market attractiveness
*3Q 2015/3Q 2014
13
Household and company confidence rising
since 2013
The recovery has been reflected in improving consumer confidence
Monthly Retail Sales Index (Base 100 = 2005)
120
115
110
105
100
95
90
85
80
The Irish manufacturing sector has been expanding since mid-2013, albeit at a slower pace
since mid-2015
Manufacturing PMI - Values above 50 represent expansion of the manufacturing sector
59
58
57
56
55
54
53
52
51
50
49
48
47
2011
Source : CSO
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
Source : AIB Economy Watch
Monthly retail index increase: 109.7 (Nov ‘15) vs. 87 (Jan ‘10)
Industrial PMI > 50 since May 2013, i.e. 32 month increase
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After years of under investment, Ireland
needs infrastructure
Public investment only 2% of
GDP (2015):
• Low for OECD economy
• Rapid collapse after 2008
Infrastructure deficiencies:
• Ireland fell from 19th (‘07 ) to
31st (‘12), World Bank
Logistics Performance Index
• Dublin (1.3 million people): 2
railway lines, no metro
Infrastructure needs are great opportunity for French
companies
15
Government to invest €27bn in infrastructure
(2016-2021)
Capital
Investment
Plan
2016-2021
Transport
€9.6bn
Education
€3.8bn
Environment
€4bn
Health
€3.1bn
Roads:
€6bn
Improve
infrastructure
Homes:
€2.9bn
Renew infrastructure
Public transport:
€3.6bn
New buildings
Floods :
€0.43bn
Build new centers
Total
€27bn
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State-owned companies to supplement this
with €14.5bn worth of investment
…
Energy
€5.8bn
Drinking water
€4.2bn
Housing
€2.5bn
Infrastructure
€2bn
Energy distribution
and transmission
network
Water treatment
and distribution
infrastructure
Housing and
company
development
Ports, airports,
public transport,
forestry and
biomass
State-owned
enterprises
2016-2021
Total
€14.5bn
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Ireland one of world’s most open economies,
ICC ranking
ICC Rankings' Criteria for Ireland
ICC Rankings 2013 & 2015
6
2013
Excellent
2015
5
Singapore
Hong Kong
Ireland
Sweden
Germany
UK
1
Above average
4
2
3
6
2
10
1
19
0
30
France
USA
Spain
Source : the International Chamber of Commerce
Trade Openness
Trade Policy
FDI Openness
Trade
infrastructures
Total
37
Source : the International Chamber of Commerce
42
46
Ireland 6th most open economy in world:
• Above average for all criteria
• Attractive for FDI (5.6/6) and exports:
Excellent trade infrastructure (5/6) and above average
trade openess (4.6/6)
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Your French interlocutors in Ireland
The Economic
Department of the
French Embassy in
Dublin is part of the
French Treasury’s
international network,
and is in charge of
analysing and
reporting on the Irish
economy. It is in
charge of coordinating
the operations of the
other actors in Ireland
in line with the
government policies.
Founded in 2015,
Business France is the
national agency
supporting the
international
development of the
French economy,
responsible for
fostering export
growth by French
business, as well as
promoting and
facilitating
international
investment in France.
The CCEF is comprised
of 4000 business
leaders, present in
140 countries that act
as advisers on French
foreign trade. Their
core missions are
advising public
authorities, promoting
the attractiveness of
France, supporting
companies in
international
development and
training young people.
The France Ireland
Chamber of
Commerce promotes
trade and investment
between France and
Ireland, and brings
together the Irish and
French business
communities in
Ireland.
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Contact information
Mr. Pierre Mongrué
Head of the Economic
Department
Ms Gisèle Hivert-Messeca
Mr. Olivier Melennec
Ireland Country Manager
President of CCEF Ireland
Address
French Embassy in Ireland
66 Merrion Square, Dublin 2
Address
French Embassy in Ireland
66 Merrion Square, Dublin 2
Address
CACI Dublin
Beaux Lane House, Lower Mercer
St, Dublin 2
Mail
[email protected]
Mail
[email protected]
Mail
[email protected]
Tel.
+353 (0)1 277 5081
Tel.
+353 (0)1 603 9683
Tel.
+353 (0)1 277 5043
Ms. Cliona McGowan
General director of FICC
Address
FICC
44 Upper Mount St, Dublin 2
Mail
[email protected]
Tel.
+353 (0)1 644 9760
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