Transcript Economic Trends and The Oil and Gas

Economic Trends and The Oil and Gas Industry
September 15, 2015
Carlsbad, New Mexico
Jim Peach
Department of Economics and International Business
and Arrowhead Center
New Mexico State University
[email protected]
The US economy:
Not bad, but not booming
• Since 2009 Q3 (Beginning of recovery)
– GDP increased in 22 quarters
– GDP fell in 2 quarters (2011 Q1) and 2014 Q1)
• Average rate of growth since 2009 q3= 2.2 percent
• Average 1957 to 2007 = 3.4 percent
• 59 consecutive months of employment gains
“Economy not bad but not booming”
Warren Buffet
CNBC: September 8, 2015
Photo public domain from Wikipedia commons
US GDP
Jobs
Not Bad!
2015 is NADA forecast
Housing
Scary Stuff?
“The fundamentals of the economy are sound.”
Mike Jackson, CEO, Autonation
CNBC Sept 2, 2015
Photo from autonation website
What will Janet (and friends) do?
Public domain photos Wikipedia commons
What will Janet (and friends) do?
Some Global Issues
World population = 7.1 b
World GDP = $74 T
Source: https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/graphics/ref_maps/political/pdf/world.pdf
China Matters
Population = 1. 4 billion
GDP = $10.4 Trillion
Source: Map CIA World Factbook; Data World Bank
Greece matters but Turkey is more important
Greece
population 11.0 million
GDP $240 b
Turkey
population 75.0 million
GDP $800 b
Source: CIA World Factbook
New Mexico:
Weak recovery with few bright spots
Photo by Jim Peach Sept 2014
NM Rank = 49
Weak Recovery in New Mexico
Not pretty in most sectors
Unemployment Rate
Source: NM Department of Workforce Solutions, Monthly Labor Review
Unemployment Rate
Source: NM Department of Workforce Solutions, Monthly Labor Review
Population: first decrease in 50 years
New Mexico Poverty Rank = 1
Per Capita Income: NM and its neighbors
NM Rank = 45
US Crude Oil
EIA estimates released Friday Sept 11, 2015
June 15 9,296
June 14 8,676
Cushing inventories?
US Crude Oil
EIA estimates released Friday Sept 11, 2015
June 15 9,296
April 15 9,612
NM Crude Oil
EIA estimates released Friday Sept 11, 2015
Percent Change
June 2014 to June 2015
+27.8%
2014
total = 123.6 mmb
338 bpd
Thank you!