Transcript Activity uncertainties and reporting in inventories

Joint Task Force on Emission Inventory & Projection / Task Force on Modeling
and Measurement Workshop
Joint Task Force on Emission Inventory & Projection / Task
Wood
andand
other
uncertain PM sources:
Force
on Burning
Modeling
Measurement
Workshop
activity uncertainty and reporting in inventory
Wood Burning and other uncertain PM sources:
activity uncertainty and reporting in inventory
Carlo Trozzi
Larnaca (Cyprus), 10-11 May 2010
Carlo Trozzi
Larnaca (Cyprus), 12 May 2010
Joint Task Force on Emission Inventory & Projection / Task Force on Modeling
and Measurement Workshop
Wood Burning and other uncertain PM sources:
activity uncertainty and reporting in inventory
TOPICS
Tentative methodology to evaluate
domestic emissions from wood
burning
Other uncertain PM sources
(diffuse PM emissions from storage,
handling and transport )
Carlo Trozzi
Larnaca (Cyprus), 12 May 2010
Joint Task Force on Emission Inventory & Projection / Task Force on Modeling
and Measurement Workshop
Wood Burning and other uncertain PM sources:
activity uncertainty and reporting in inventory
emissions from wood burning
Methodology goals
 Evaluation of fuel consumption on a more
detailed geographical scale for example NUT3
(provinces or equivalent units) or LAU 2
(municipalities or equivalent units) of
Nomenclature of Territorial Units for Statistics as
established by Eurostat to:
 Obtain more accurate estimates
 Use of data to allocate emissions on the EMEP 50
km X 50 km grid (or finest ones, 10 km x 10 km)
 Allocation of fuel consumption to different
technologies
Carlo Trozzi
Larnaca (Cyprus), 12 May 2010
Joint Task Force on Emission Inventory & Projection / Task Force on Modeling
and Measurement Workshop
Wood Burning and other uncertain PM sources:
activity uncertainty and reporting in inventory
Wood burning proposed methodology
1 Elaborate fuel sold from statistical sources
2 Evaluate temperature on very detailed space
grid by meteorological model
3 Compute energy requirements on climatic
areas by energy models based on temperature
and census data about fuel use
4 Compare energy requirements with fuel sold
5 Use census data and/or specific survey for
fuel/technologies allocation
Carlo Trozzi
Larnaca (Cyprus), 12 May 2010
Joint Task Force on Emission Inventory & Projection / Task Force on Modeling
and Measurement Workshop
Wood Burning and other uncertain PM sources:
activity uncertainty and reporting in inventory
Wood burning pilot study
A pilot study was
conduced in Italy
inside Genova
province (NUTS 3
territory) to
evaluate natural
gas and other fuel
consumption on
LAU 2
(municipalities)
Carlo Trozzi
Larnaca (Cyprus), 12 May 2010
Joint Task Force on Emission Inventory & Projection / Task Force on Modeling
and Measurement Workshop
Wood Burning and other uncertain PM sources:
activity uncertainty and reporting in inventory
Wood burning pilot study
 Temperature trend assessed on an hourly basis,
throughout the province on a grid of 1km x 1km
by meteorological models for the reference year
 Evaluation of the heat demand of the houses for
typology by energy model
 Evaluation of total requirements in all the
municipalities using data on the stock of houses
 Validation of total computed value for gas with
quantity distributed by the gas network
 Comparison of data for wood and liquid fuels with
available statistics
Carlo Trozzi
Larnaca (Cyprus), 12 May 2010
Joint Task Force on Emission Inventory & Projection / Task Force on Modeling
and Measurement Workshop
Wood Burning and other uncertain PM sources:
activity uncertainty and reporting in inventory
Wood burning pilot study
Temperature model
Evaluation of the hourly values of
temperatures at 1 km x 1 km grid with
two meteorological models (MM5
mesoscale model of PSU/NCAR and
Calmet model)
Assignment to each municipality the
temperature of the mesh of City Hall
(on national scale can be used 5 km x 5 km, 10 km x 10
km or larger grids depends on orography and climate)
Carlo Trozzi
Larnaca (Cyprus), 12 May 2010
Joint Task Force on Emission Inventory & Projection / Task Force on Modeling
and Measurement Workshop
Wood Burning and other uncertain PM sources:
activity uncertainty and reporting in inventory
Pilot study – Temperature validation
Conparison beween daily average temperature
computed and measured at Genova Airport
Measured
Computed
Carlo Trozzi
Larnaca (Cyprus), 12 May 2010
Joint Task Force on Emission Inventory & Projection / Task Force on Modeling
and Measurement Workshop
Wood Burning and other uncertain PM sources:
activity uncertainty and reporting in inventory
Wood burning pilot study – Degree day
Evaluation of degree day (is the sum,
extended to all days of a conventional
one-year period, of the positive
differences between the conventional
daily temperature, set in Italy at 20 °
C, and the daily outside average
temperature)
Use of degree day as input to energy
model
Carlo Trozzi
Larnaca (Cyprus), 12 May 2010
Joint Task Force on Emission Inventory & Projection / Task Force on Modeling
and Measurement Workshop
Wood Burning and other uncertain PM sources:
activity uncertainty and reporting in inventory
Wood burning pilot study
Municipality degree day
Carlo Trozzi
Larnaca (Cyprus), 12 May 2010
Joint Task Force on Emission Inventory & Projection / Task Force on Modeling
and Measurement Workshop
Wood Burning and other uncertain PM sources:
activity uncertainty and reporting in inventory
Wood burning pilot study – Energy model
 The heating and hot water requirements of an
“average” house was computed with DOCET
model (made by Italy CNR / ENEA) in a series of
simulations:
 in each municipality (using degree day specific
to municipalities)
 for different types of housing (specific to
municipalities) about:
 period of construction (old / new house)
 location (city center or isolated)
 type of structure
Carlo Trozzi
Larnaca (Cyprus), 12 May 2010
Joint Task Force on Emission Inventory & Projection / Task Force on Modeling
and Measurement Workshop
Wood Burning and other uncertain PM sources:
activity uncertainty and reporting in inventory
Wood burning pilot study – Energy model
 For a number of other parameters (external
finish, top height, number of floors, wall
thickness, window type, window area, etc.) were
assigned default values (evaluated with a
sensitivity study)
 Total consumption in all the municipalities was
obtained by multiplying the heating requirements
of an “average” house for the number of houses
powered by natural gas, liquid fuels or firewood
(source: ISTAT national population census)
Carlo Trozzi
Larnaca (Cyprus), 12 May 2010
Joint Task Force on Emission Inventory & Projection / Task Force on Modeling
and Measurement Workshop
Wood Burning and other uncertain PM sources:
activity uncertainty and reporting in inventory
Wood burning pilot study – Results
 For natural gas the following result was obtained
as total provincial figure:
 Model results 444.232.000 m3
 Total natural gas distributed by area network
472.313.000 m3
 The comparison shows that the total calculated is
94% of the distributed quantity
 Given that the data of the gas distribution
includes the consumption of small industrial
plants, connected to city networks, the
correspondence is very satisfactory
Carlo Trozzi
Larnaca (Cyprus), 12 May 2010
Joint Task Force on Emission Inventory & Projection / Task Force on Modeling
and Measurement Workshop
Wood Burning and other uncertain PM sources:
activity uncertainty and reporting in inventory
Pilot study – Results
 For wood the following result was obtained as
total provincial figure:
 Model results 204.451 t
 Allowed to cut firewood 15.350 t
 The comparison shows that the total calculated is
1332% of the data reported in official statistics
 In this case the calculated total is far higher than
official figures as expected, but less than, data
obtained by a survey conducted on the final
consumer in other works:
 Survey data 353.308 t
Carlo Trozzi
Larnaca (Cyprus), 12 May 2010
Joint Task Force on Emission Inventory & Projection / Task Force on Modeling
and Measurement Workshop
Wood Burning and other uncertain PM sources:
activity uncertainty and reporting in inventory
Other uncertain PM sources
 Models of transport of pollutants do not explain
the measured concentrations of PM in Europe
 A possible cause of error is the existence of ghost
emissions not evaluated in the inventories
 A source of PM rarely assessed, and difficult to
assess, is the storage and transportation of solid
fuels, raw materials and waste
 The next slides give an overview of the activities
involved and assess the presence of emission
factors and methodologies in the Guidebook, in
order to close the gap
Carlo Trozzi
Larnaca (Cyprus), 12 May 2010
Joint Task Force on Emission Inventory & Projection / Task Force on Modeling
and Measurement Workshop
Wood Burning and other uncertain PM sources:
activity uncertainty and reporting in inventory
NFR for storage, handling and transport
 1.B.1.a Fugitive emissions from solid fuels: Coal
mining and handling
 1.B.1.b Fugitive emissions from solid fuels: Solid fuel
transformation
 2.A.7.a Quarrying and mining of minerals other than
coal
 2.A.7.b Construction and demolition
 2.A.7.c Storage, handling and transport of mineral
products
 2.C.5.f Storage, handling and transport of metal
products
 6.A Solid waste disposal on land
Carlo Trozzi
Larnaca (Cyprus), 12 May 2010
Joint Task Force on Emission Inventory & Projection / Task Force on Modeling
and Measurement Workshop
Wood Burning and other uncertain PM sources:
activity uncertainty and reporting in inventory
Storage, handling and transport
Methodology available in the Guidebook
Tier 1 generic EF, high uncertainty
Tier 2 no EF or EF as for Tier 1
Tier 3 no methodology only some generic reference to
US EPA methodology
Activity not defined in NFR
Transport of solid fuels (coal, wood and wood waste)
Transport of agriculture products to food industry
Transport of solid waste
Carlo Trozzi
Larnaca (Cyprus), 12 May 2010
Joint Task Force on Emission Inventory & Projection / Task Force on Modeling
and Measurement Workshop
Wood Burning and other uncertain PM sources:
activity uncertainty and reporting in inventory
Final consideration on methodologies
Wood burning
The pilot study will be used to define a
generalized methodology for compute
fuel consumptions on large scale in the
frame of TFEIP activities
More census detailed data on number of
installed facilities by type are useful
(promote more detailed census data
sheets)
Carlo Trozzi
Larnaca (Cyprus), 12 May 2010
Joint Task Force on Emission Inventory & Projection / Task Force on Modeling
and Measurement Workshop
Wood Burning and other uncertain PM sources:
activity uncertainty and reporting in inventory
Final consideration on methodologies
Storage, handling and transport
 A Tier 3 methodology needs to be developed
and Tier 2 and Tier 1 Efs have to be derived
from Tier 3
 US EPA AP 42 methods will be used as base
for Tiers development
 (2008)
 13.2.3 Heavy Construction Operations
 13.2.4 Aggregate Handling And Storage
Piles (2006)
Carlo Trozzi
Larnaca (Cyprus), 12 May 2010