Transcript Africa Needs Research Universities

Nico Cloete Johann Mouton Charles Sheppard
UWC Institute of Post-School Studies
Presentation
1. The Context of the Fees Crisis
2. The Doctorate
Context of the Fees Crisis
1. Shift in funding
2. Low Percentage of GDP allocated to higher education
3. Differentiated Fee Structure required
4. What to do?
Higher education income sources, ZAR (billion)
100%
90%
Third stream
Third stream
14.26
8.78
80%
27%
27%
70%
60%
Student fees
7.80
50%
Student fees
24%
17.83
33%
40%
30%
20%
Government
Government
15.93
21.21
10%
49%
0%
2000
Source: DHET, Financial Statements in Annual reports submitted by Universities
40%
2013
1.00%
0.90%
0.80%
0.70%
0.60%
0.50%
2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13
State budget for universities as a % of GDP
State budget for R&D as % of GDP
Source: R&D data: Mouton J (2015) A Research Innovation Framework; HE data: Charles Sheppard
5
Expenditure on higher education as % of GDP, 2012
5.00
4.50
4.47
4.00
3.50
3.00
2.50
2.18
2.00
2.04
1.76
1.50
1.44 1.39 1.38
1.24 1.20 1.15
1.00
0.95 0.93
0.71
0.50
Compiled by Charles Sheppard
Source: OECD 2010
South Africa
Chile
Brazil
Argentina
India
Australia
Senegal
USA
Ghana
Malaysia
Norway
Finland
Cuba
0.00
Context of the Fees Crisis
1.
It could be more efficient to give Institutions greater proportion of funding
and reduce pressure on fees?
2.
Percentage of GDP for Science and Higher Education is too small.
3.
HE Budget for 2015/6 is ZAR 30 billion: 1% of GDP = R 41 billion
The extra ZAR 11 billion more than covers ZAR 2.6 billion fees shortfall
4. Higher education in SA:
•
•
•
is too cheap for the rich
too expensive for the middle class
the deserving poor is covered
5. What to do to prevent higher education from becoming like SAA and Eskom
with annual bailouts?
Policy Pressures on Doctorate Production in SA
More PhDs
1.
Castells – the university as engine of development in the knowledge
economy (1991 Kuala Lumpur, World Bank; UWC 2001)
2. Knowledge more important than capital or materials
3. Talent, not capital is the primary source of competitive advantage
4. Unprecedented growth – China 50 000 pa, University Sao Paulo more than
the whole SA system - traditional systems US, UK much slower
5. Number of doctorates far exceed number of places in US in 1970 50% of
PhD’s got tenure track position, by 2006 15% (100 000 new PhD’s, 15 000
new academic jobs) In Germany only 6% aim for academic position
6. What do they do – finance, research organisations, pastors
7. Silicon valley – innovation
8. Ms Zuma, (AU commissioner, 2013) – Africa must produce ten’s of
thousands of Phd’s – as long as they stay in Africa.
9. NDP 2030 and Naledi Pandor DST Budget speech, July 2014 – SA must
produce 5000 per year and will ask government for R5 billion
10. The PhD factories – is it time to stop? (Cyranoski; Nature, 2011)
Comparison of enrolments and graduates, 1996 to 2012
Enrolments
Graduates
13,964
9,994
9,104
6,354
5,152
685
1996
834
2000
1,104
2004
1,182
2008
1,878
2012
Average shares of the doctoral enrolments
in the various fields of study (1996-2012)
Source: Cloete et al. (2015) Doctoral Education in South Africa
Doctoral graduates produced by universities in 2012
Stellenbosch
240
Pretoria
200
Cape Town
199
KwaZulu-Natal
177
North West
154
South Africa
152
Witwatersrand
150
Johannesburg
109
Free State
94
Nelson Mandela
86
Western Cape
75
Rhodes
67
Tshwane
44
Fort Hare
43
Zululand
28
Cape Peninsula
24
Limpopo
17
Durban
6
Central
5
Venda
4
Walter Sisulu
3
Vaal
2
Mangosuthu
0
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Source: Cloete et al. (2015) Doctoral Education in South Africa
13
Source: Cloete et al. (2015) Doctoral Education in South Africa
14
Progress of 2006 intakes of new doctoral students after 7 years by cluster
Graduates as % of new doctoral intake of 2006 after 7 years
Stellenbosch
Western Cape
Cape Town
Johannesburg
65%
60%
56%
55%
Free State
Zululand
Nelson Mandela
Pretoria
North West
Tshwane
Rhodes
KwaZulu-Natal
35%
40%
44%
45%
54%
52%
52%
52%
52%
51%
51%
50%
Durban
Witwatersrand
46%
48%
48%
48%
48%
49%
49%
50%
46%
45%
Central
Cape Peninsula
Fort Hare
Limpopo
Venda
Walter Sisulu
South Africa
Mangosuthu
Vaal
% drop outs or incomplete after 7 years
54%
55%
35%
34%
34%
33%
65%
66%
66%
67%
26%
25%
25%
0%
0%
74%
75%
75%
100%
Summary of progress of 2006 intake of new doctoral students
after 7 years by fields of study
Source: Cloete et al. (2015) Doctoral Education in South Africa
16
Source: Cloete et al. (2015) Doctoral Education in South Africa
17
Progression from bachelors to honours
Source: Cloete et al. (2015) Doctoral Education in South Africa
18
Students’ primary source of support (2013)
African/
Coloured/
Indian
White
HONOURS
Family earnings or savings (incl. those of partner)
41%
70%
Other scholarship/bursary (not NRF)
33%
30%
Personal earnings/savings
31%
37%
Personal earnings/savings
38%
47%
Other scholarship/bursary (not NRF)
31%
41%
Family earnings or savings (incl. those of partner)
23%
34%
Employer reimbursement/assistance
23%
(18%)
Other scholarship/bursary (not NRF)
42%
49%
Personal earnings/savings
34%
42%
NRF scholarship
33%
46%
MASTERS
DOCTORAL
Source: ??? Compiled by Charles Sheppard
19
Doctoral graduates by race (1996–2012)
African
Coloured
Indian
White
821
816
654
645
591
587
384
298
154
58
23
17
1996
142
100
97
102
53
36
2000
50
2004
56
2008
2012
Black doctoral graduates produced by universities in 2012
KwaZulu-Natal
138
Stellenbosch
107
Cape Town
98
South Africa
94
Witwatersrand
92
Pretoria
83
Western Cape
62
Johannesburg
52
Nelson Mandela
51
North West
42
Free State
42
Fort Hare
41
Rhodes
34
Tshwane
33
Zululand
26
Cape Peninsula
19
Limpopo
16
Durban
4
Venda
4
Central
3
Vaal
2
Walter Sisulu
2
Mangosuthu
0
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
African doctoral graduates by nationality and gender
Source: Cloete et al. (2015) Doctoral Education in South Africa
Average annual growth rates by nationality and gender (2000–2012)
Source: Cloete et al. (2015) Knowledge Production and Contradictory Functions in African Higher Education
23
African female PhD graduates from South Africa
and the rest of Africa by field of study and nationality (2012)
Field of study
Natural sciences
South Africa
Rest of Africa
Total
23
22.1%
52
38.2%
75
31.3%
3
2.9%
7
5.1%
10
4.2%
20
19.2%
13
9.6%
33
13.8%
6
5.8%
9
6.6%
15
6.3%
Education
22
21.2%
11
8.1%
33
13.8%
Humanities and social sciences
30
28.8%
44
32.4%
74
30.8%
104
100.0%
136
100.0%
240
100.0%
Engineering and technology
Health sciences
Business, economic and management sciences
Total
Source: HEMIS. Compiled by Charles Sheppard
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South Africa a PhD Bargain
1.
SA has 5 Universities in Shanghai top 500
2.
•
•
•
•
Full time research PhD Costs
UK (Bath)– $21 450 fees (foreigners) + $18 000 living = $46 050
US (Berkeley) - $31 900 fees + $23 000 living = $54 900
US (NYU ) - $41 300 fees + $26 000 living = $67 300
SA (US) - $2000 +$1000 (foreigners) + $10 000 living = $13 000
SA three times cheaper than Bath, four times cheaper than Berkeley and
five times cheaper than NYU
3.
Golden triangle – Efficiency, Transformation Quality (perceived)
4.
But the Africans from the rest of Africa are not SA Africans, not black, not
disadvantaged or not “ours” (nationalism or middle class xenophobia?)
5.
Too few doctorates at African flagship universities
Variables used in the analysis of a PhD Production Model
Growth
Measured in terms of the average annual growth rate for the period 2008
to 2012. This shows particularly the impact of the funding framework
which provides huge financial incentives for enrolling and the production
of PhD graduates
Efficiency
Two indicators were used for measuring efficiency:
 Measured in terms of student throughput/ completion rates. For this
analysis it was measured as the % of the 2006 cohort graduating
after 7 years.
 Ratio of the number of PhD graduates to the number of academic
staff with doctorates in the year2012
Transformation
Two indicators were used for measuring transformation:
 Number of Black (African, Coloured, Asian) PhDs produced in 2012
 Number of Women PhDs produced in 2012

Statistical analysis by Prof Amanda Lourens (IDSC)
Tough Policy Choices
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
Should the seven institutions in Group One (30% of the universities in the
system) be regarded as having an ‘embedded research culture’ with strong
doctoral programmes and what are the policy levers for further
strengthening such universities?
Should the ten institutions in Group 2 be encouraged to develop and expand
their research and doctoral education capacities, while this would develop
the broader system, it would be against the international trend of
concentration on a smaller group of institutions.
Should the six institutions that produce one percent of the doctoral
graduates be allowed to continue to offer doctoral programmes?
Should the expensive fulltime programmes be distributed across all
institutions or concentrated in the most efficient universities with the
highest supervisory capacity?
Should institutions that are producing the most black and women graduates
be given preference when it comes to allocating the proposed fulltime
doctoral education positions?
Nico Cloete
Ian Bunting
Charles Sheppard &
François van Schalkwyk
Data from CHET, CREST
& African HE Open Data
www.chet.org.za/data/african-he-opendata