Transcript Cost neutral - Base Cities

Andy Gouldson, Niall Kerr
University of Leeds
Corrado Topi, Ellie Dawkins, Johan Kuylenstierna
University of York
Climate Change and Economics
The Stern Review changed the political landscape on climate
change by claiming that:
• The cost of avoiding dangerous climate change (1-2% of GDP).
Is much less than
• The costs of dangerous climate change (5-20% of GDP).
The Key Questions
Can we provide an accessible and locally specific
evidence base on the low carbon economy?
Does the evidence base suggest that there is a business
case for major scale investments?
Does it suggest that there is also a wider social and
economic case?
If so, how can we secure, structure, deliver major scale
investments in the low carbon economy in the Humber?
The Approach
A review of thousands of energy efficient and low carbon options –
only considers energy efficiency and small scale renewables.
A realistic assessment of the costs and the energy (and hence
cost and carbon) savings associated with each measure.
A review of the scope for the deployment of these measures
in households, commerce, transport and industry at the local level.
Identification of the most cost and carbon effective options for
different sectors.
Mapping the capacity of the low carbon goods and services sector to
absorb investment and create employment.
All based on conservative assessments and realistic projections.
Headline Findings for the Birmingham
and the Wider Urban Area
£5.1 billion (c10% of GDP) left the local economy in 2012
through payment of the energy bill. This figure is forecast to
grow to £6.6 billion by 2022.
There is a commercially attractive opportunity to bring
£3.6 billion of investment into the local economy to exploit
cost effective low carbon and energy efficient options.
Such investments would pay for themselves in 3.8 years,
cutting energy bills by £954 million a year.
They would also create 1,650 jobs and an extra
£100 million in wider GVA every year.
The Carbon Impact
+7%
7%
22%
32%
36%
38%
Cost Neutral Investments – Domestic
• £1.5 billion of investment opportunities
• Exploiting these would generate savings of £507 million a year
• Payback period 3 years
• Would create 1200 jobs
• Carbon savings equivalent to 3.9% of emissions
Top 10 Measures - Domestic
Cost Effective
Carbon Effective
 Mini wind turbines (5kW) with FIT
 Reduced heating for washing machines
 Electronic products
 ICT products
 Integrated digital TVs
 Reduced standby consumption
 Reduce household heating by 1 C
 A++ rated cold appliances
 A rated ovens
 Efficient lighting
 Reduce household heating by 1 C
 Solid wall insulation
 Pre-76 cavity wall insulation
 Electronic products
 Ground Source Heat Pump with RHI
 Air source heat pumps
 ICT products
 Efficient lighting
 Solar water heating with RHI
 Glazing – single to new
Cost effective – Cost neutral – Realistic potential
Cost Neutral Investments – Commercial
• £586 million of investment opportunities
• Exploiting these would generate savings of £292 million a year
• Payback period 2 years
• Would create 414 jobs
• Carbon savings equivalent to 4.7% of emissions
Top 10 Measures - Commercial
Cost Effective
Carbon Effective
 Vending machines - energy
management
 Photocopier - energy management
 Computers - energy management
 Monitors - energy management
 Printers - energy management
 Most energy efficient monitor PC only
 Lights - Turn off lights for an extra hour
 Lights - Sunrise-Sunset timers
 Lights – basic timer
 More efficient air conditioning
 Most energy efficient boiler
 Programmable thermostats
 Biomass boilers with RHI
 Air source heat pumps
 Ground Source Heat Pumps with RHI
 Heating – reducing room
temperature
 Most energy efficient double glazing
 Heating - Optimising start times
 Lights - Basic timer
 Most energy efficient air
conditioning
Cost effective – Cost neutral – Realistic potential
Cost Neutral Investments – Industrial
• £1.1 billion of investment opportunities
• Exploiting these would generate savings of £118 million a year
• Payback period 9.3 years
• Would create 222 jobs
• Carbon savings equivalent to 4.2% of emissions
Top 10 Measures - Industrial
Cost Effective
Carbon Effective
 Burners
 Refrigeration and air-conditioning
 Lighting
 Compressed air
 Design
 Fabrication and machining
 Low temperature heating
 New food and drink plant
 Operation and maintenance
 Drying and separation
 Renewable heat
 Others
 High temperature heating
 Process improvement
 Drying and separation
 Motors and drives
 Controls
 Heat recovery
 Energy management
 Operation and maintenance
Cost effective – Cost neutral – Realistic potential
Cost Neutral Investments – Transport (road)
• £2 billion of investment opportunities
• Exploiting these would generate savings of £228 million a year
• Payback period 6.51 years
• Would create jobs – number tbc
• Carbon savings equivalent to 2.1% of emissions
Top 10 Measures - Transport
Cost Effective
Carbon Effective
 tbc
 tbc
Cost effective – Cost neutral – Realistic potential
A Business Model
Public
Borrowing
Private
Finance
BES
Originating,
Managing
Collecting and
allocating
Marketing
Surveying
Green Deal
Payments
Delivery
Partner
Feed in
Tariff
ECO
Green Deal
Agreement
Installing
Generator meter
(if PV is fitted)
Maintaining
Benefits
Green Deal Payments
collected via energy bill
Energy
Companies
Conclusions
There are financially attractive ways of…
• stimulating the economy,
• reducing vulnerability,
• protecting competitiveness,
• creating employment,
• improving public health
Whilst at the same time slashing your carbon footprint.