Transcript Population density is the signature of Colombian cities

Colombia: Amplifying
gains from
urbanization
Urbanization Review
How can public policies enhance prosperity and
livability across Colombia’s urban portfolio?
• Seventy five percent of
Colombians live in cities
– On one end, Bogota is
the densest city in the
Western Hemisphere
packing in 18,000 people
/ sq km
– On the other end, there
are other fairly dispersed
927 municipalities with
less than 20,000 people
A bumpy social landscape
Distribution of living conditions in Colombia
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The Urbanization Review
1. Diagnoses the health of Colombia’s urban
economy and the urbanization process
2. Highlights differentiated policy challenges for
places across the urban portfolio.
3. A second phase will provide specific policy
and investment options.
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The Urbanization Review
1. Diagnoses the urbanization process and
the health of Colombia’s urban economy
URBANIZATION PROCESS
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From intermediate to advanced urbanization in
about fifty years
• 75 percent of Colombians
live in urban areas, up from
31 percent in 1938
• Urbanization profile passed
from towns to large cities.
– In 1951, Bogotá was already
the largest city in Colombia;
with over 600,000 people
– Today the urban system of
Bogota host nearly 8 million,
Medellin’s 3 million, cities of
the Caribbean corridor 3
million, Cali’s 2 millions, cities
of the coffee region, 2 million,
Bucaramanga 1 million.
Urbanization rate (%)
80
6
70
5
60
4
50
40
3
30
2
20
1
10
0
Urban population anual rate
of growth (%)
Urbanization and GDP per capita
0
1938 1951 1964 1973 1985 1993 2005
Distribution of urban population
50%
1951
40%
2005
30%
20%
10%
0%
Bogota
> 500
100-500
50-100
20-50
< 20
Thousand people
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Population density is the signature of
Colombian cities
Rank by population per square kilometer
Country
City
Bangladesh
China
India
Colombia
Colombia
Colombia
Colombia
Colombia
Colombia
Colombia
Peru
Dhaka
Hong Kong
Mumbai
Bogota
Ibague
Medellin
Bucaramanga
Cali
Santa Marta
Barranquilla
Lima
Density Rank Country
40,100
25,100
24,900
18,100
17,400
16,400
14,900
14,000
13,500
12,100
12,000
1
2
4
16
20
31
50
61
66
99
104
Colombia
Colombia
Brazil
South Korea
Chile
Mexico
Venezuela
Colombia
Mexico
Argentina
Ecuador
City
Pereira
Cartagena
Soa Luis
Seoul
Antofagasta
Villahermosa
Caracas
Cucucta
Mexico City
Rosario
Guayaquil
Density
11,400
10,800
10,500
10,100
9,700
9,700
9,500
7,900
7,300
6,800
6,300
Rank
130
151
165
174
189
191
204
274
298
318
339
Country
City
Chile
Brazil
Brazil
Uruguay
UK
Panama
Argentina
Ecuador
France
USA
USA
Santiago
Rio de Janeiro
Sao Paulo
Montevideo
London
Panama City
Buenos Aires
Quito
Paris
Los Angeles
New York
Density Rank
6,100
5,600
5,300
5,300
5,100
5,000
4,700
3,400
3,300
2,400
1,800
380
407
435
442
458
464
487
592
602
664
694
Source: Demographia, 2010 “World Urban Areas & Population Projections”, Edition 6.1.
Four Colombian cities rank among the 50 densest cities in the world, out of nearly 800
cities with 500,000 inhabitants or more. Nine rank above all other Latin American and
European cities (with the exception of Lima)
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Population density is the signature of
Colombian cities
• Bogotá …
– homes 20 percent
Colombia’s urban
population
– is 10 times the size it
was in 1951.
– is ten times denser than
Sao Paulo
Thousand
inhabitants per
sq. km.
Population density
Metropolitan area
within 10 kms of
city center
Sao Paulo
Rio de
Janeiro
Buenos
Aires
Bogota
Lima
Source: data from Urban Age (2009)
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The Urbanization Review
1. Diagnoses the urbanization process and
the health of Colombia’s urban economy
URBAN ECONOMY
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The urban economy has made a substantial
contribution to Colombia’s economic progress
Contribution to growth from urban activities
75
190
% of GDP Growth
170
65
160
60
150
55
140
130
50
120
45
GDP per Capita 1970==100
180
70
110
40
100
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
Contribution to growth from cities
%8
7
6
5
4
3
2
0
2
3
CHILE
1
MEXICO
0
COLOMBIA
1
BRAZIL
Average Annual Growth
• Contributed over 50 percent
to GDP growth over the past
40 years.
• GDP growth -2000 to 2004in large and medium size
cities of Colombia was 1
percent higher than
national GDP growth.
• In Mexico and Brazil large
cities growth 1 percent less
than their national
economies, while in Chile
both growth are the same
pace.
4
5
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Along with economic progress, urbanization
has been inclusive
Electricity
Sanitation
Water
100%
75%
50%
25%
0%
Bogota Largest
Smallest
Bogota Largest
1964
Smallest
1993
Bogota Largest
2005
Beyond service access, improving quality will important -- a recent study
collecting drinking water samples highlights that almost 60 percent of the
samples taken outside the largest cities failed to meet minimum quality
standards
Smallest
However, economic densities are limited
• Few neighborhoods in Bogota have business
densities of 149 businesses per sq. km., much
lower than business densities in U.S. cities such
as Miami (207 per sq. km.), San Francisco, CA
(276 per sq. km.) and Washington DC (216 per sq.
km).
• Bogota show considerable underutilization of
available land – in 2010, 63 percent more square
meters can be built in commercial areas , 53
percent in residential areas, and 54 percent in
industrial areas.
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In contrast with many vibrant cities,
Colombian cities live in autarchy
•
•
•
•
Bogota and Medellin are over 500
kms from a port. Contrast this with
Shenzen, Mumbai, and Bangkok –
port cities that connect their
countries to world markets.
Trade flows restrictions during the
colonial period neglected coastal
cities, reinforced the prominence of
cities of Los Andes.
Since then linkages among
neighboring countries has been
reduced
Regions within Colombia compete
rather than complement economic
functions. Growth in one region is
associated with a decline in the share
of trade for other regions –(Bonnet,
2006)
Restricted city port development
imposed during the colonial period
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As a result, Colombian cities are not exploiting
gains from trade and economic specialization
• Large cities have economic
bases mirroring Bogota’s
while smaller cities are
specialized in
manufacturing
• The problem lies with
difficulties cities have in
transforming their
productive bases.
– Data from Toro (2004),
compared with the latest
manufacturing surveys, shows
that patterns of specialization
are more than three decades
old.
An index of economic symmetry based on the
Annual Manufacturing Survey
0.45
0.40
0.35
0.30
0.25
0.20
0.15
1997
2008
0.10
0.05
0.00
Since 1977, nothing has changed substantially in
specialization patterns
6.00
5.00
4.00
3.00
1977-1992
2.00
1993-1999
1.00
1997-1999
2006-2008
0.00
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Concentration of economic activities followed
wage differentials
• Medellin’s share in value
added declined 30%,
Cali’s 15%, Barranquilla’s
8%, Cartagena’s fell and
recovered.
1.6
1.5
Wages City / Wages in Bogota
– In late seventies 4 cities
had higher wages, today
only Cali with 10%
difference.
Manufacturing wages relative to Bogota’s
1.4
Medellín
1.3
Calí
1.2
Barranquilla
1.1
Manizales
1.0
Pereira
0.9
0.8
Bucaramanga
0.7
Cartagena
0.6
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
Share in value added relative to Bogota’s
1.0
0.9
Share City / Share of Bogota
• Wages relative to
Bogota’s have been
declining over the last
twenty-five years
0.8
Medellín
0.7
Calí
0.6
Barranquilla
0.5
Manizales
0.4
Pereira
0.3
0.2
Bucaramanga
0.1
Cartagena
0.0
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
Contrary to what is beneficial, freight transport
costs within Colombia are on the rise
•
•
•
Transport costs have increased 0.5
percent on average per year
between since 1997.
The problem is worse on the
highest traveled corridors -- Bogota
-- Buenaventura and Bogota –
Cartagena, where freight costs have
increased by 2 percent annually
over the same period.
Adverse physical topography
coupled with rising transport costs
have put in place a defacto internal
trade barrier, undermining the
formation of internal networks that
allow trade and complementary
specialization across cities.
Freight movement across Colombian cities
Barranquilla
Cartagena
Medellin
Buenaventura
Bogota
Cali
Trucks per
day in 2005
Source: Pablo Roda , 2007
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Contrary to what is beneficial, freight transport
costs within Colombia are on the rise
•
Transport costs have increased 0.5
percent on average per year
between since 1997.
• Transport costs, which are around
US $ 0.11 per ton/km – over
three times the costs of moving
products within the United
States.
•
The problem is worse on the
highest traveled corridors -- Bogota
-- Buenaventura and Bogota –
Cartagena, where freight costs have
increased by 2 percent annually
over the same period.
Freight movement across Colombian cities
Barranquilla
Cartagena
Medellin
Buenaventura
Bogota
Cali
Trucks per
day in 2005
Source: Pablo Roda , 2007
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The Urbanization Review
2. Highlights differentiated policy
challenges for places across the
urban portfolio.
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Land use planning is limiting
the extent to which large
cities can exploit economic
density
Improving coordination among spatial
and sectoral planning
• POTs guide medium to long term investments and
land regulations, Development Plans near term
reflecting decisions of elected officials.
• Regulations often do not get translated into
permits as sectoral secretariats may have different
priorities.
• For instance, it takes about 4 years for land
consolidation for business projects to get
approved in Bogota.
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Improving coordination among spatial
and sectoral planning
Could include making more operational the
multilayer planning articulated in the POT Law
388/97.
• POTs serve as a macro plans for the entire city with
a focus on urban function and form.
• Prioritization could be given by Development Plans
but following functions identified in POTs.
• Detailed plans at smaller scale like zones of the
cities could define land use regulations following
POTs and Development Plans.
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Reducing economic
distance to get the
most value from cities
Transforming the
symmetry among main
cities, further
specialization of
medium size cities
Transforming the symmetry
• Adverse physical topography
coupled with rising transport
costs have put in place a defacto
internal trade barrier.
• It undermines the formation of
internal networks that allow
trade and complementary
specialization across cities.
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For large and rapidly
growing intermediate
cities
Identifying effective mechanisms for
coordination across municipalities
Challenges are particularly acute in
intermediate and small urban areas
where small utility companies face
strong financial constraints and
cannot exploit economies of scale.
– one-tier consolidated government
– Two-tier government
– Voluntary cooperation
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Integrated transport system to connect
workers with jobs
• Pairing supply with demand
through
– Investments in transport
infrastructure
– Gasoline and car taxes, parking
permits and fees
• Minimize negative environmental
externalities
Targeted housing interventions to
make urbanization more inclusive.
Sharp instruments include:
• Focusing on zoning deregulation,
• Low income housing finance,
• and upgrading
The Urbanization Review
3. A second phase will provide specific policy
and investment options.
TOPICS FOR A SECOND PHASE
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