Transcript 1.2 - United Nations Statistics Division

United Nations Economic Commission for Africa
African Centre for
Statistics
Towards Implementation of the 2008 SNA in Africa:
Importance, Challenges, and Road Map
Xiaoning Gong
Chief, Economic Statistics and National Accounts Section
African Centre for Statistics (ACS)
United Nations Economic Commission for Africa (UNECA)
at
Seminar on Developing a Programme for the Implementation of
2008 SNA and Supporting Statistics in Southern Africa,
17-19 October 2012, Pretoria, South Africa
Presentation Outline
• Importance of the System of National Accounts (SNA)
• Current Status of SNA in African Countries
• Road Map towards Implementation of SNA 2008
African Centre for
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Importance of SNA
• National Accounts are, arguably, one of the most
important modern tools of economic analysis
and policy making:
–
–
–
–
–
–
Systematic and strong base of macroeconomics
Application of double-entry accounting principle
International standard methodology
Mathematization and computerization of the work
Complete picture of whole economic process
High relevance and orientation of current policies
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Statistics
Billions
Importance of SNA: Chinese GDP in USD
6000
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
0
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Statistics
Current Status of SNA in African
Countries
• Limited Human, Financial, and Technical
Resources
• Weak Capacity and Statistical Infrastructure
• Unharmonious National Accounts Systems in the
Continent
• Inconsistency and Incompleteness in the Data
Coverage of the Economy
• Early Stages in the Development of National
Accounts
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Limited Human, Financial, and Technical
Resources
• National Accounts in Africa is mainly compiled by
– National Statistical Offices (89%)
– Other Ministries & Central Banks (11%)
• Average number of NA Statisticians per country = 8
• High turnover rate: 4 professional staff have left from
the NA Department in the last five years
• Half of the countries: “Number of PC available in NA
Department” < “Number of National Accounts staff”
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Weak Capacity and Statistical
Infrastructure
• Relied mostly (60%70%) on Administrative Records to
meet the minimum requirement datasets for National
Accounts
• Analytical capacity, dissemination, and networks with
users and respondents:
– On average, it takes 5 months to release the first
estimate
– The final estimate takes around 17 months
– Advance release calendar exists only in about half of
the countries
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Statistics
• ISIC
• SNA
Percentages
Unharmonious National Accounts
Systems in the Continent
12
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
36
26
20
10
ISIC Rev. 4
SNA 1993
ISIC Rev.
3.1
ISIC Rev. 3 ISIC Rev. 2
8
Others
Classifications
SNA 1968
35
Percentages
30
88
28
30
25
25
20
17
15
10
5
0
• CPC
CPC Ver. 2
CPC Ver. 1.1.
CPC Ver. 1
Others
Classifications
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Statistics
Inconsistency and Incompleteness in the
Data Coverage of the Economy
According to ICP-Africa 2005, the following areas have not
been well captured:
– Imputed rents of owner-occupied dwellings
– Own-account production and consumption
– Informal sector
– Non-profit institutions and civil societies
– State and local government, and
– Aid agencies
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Statistics
Early Stages in the Development of
National Accounts
•
•
•
20% of the total African countries have reached only to
Milestone 1: Basic Indicators of GDP at Current and Constant
Prices; Final Expenditures on GDP and GDP by Industry.
65% have so far reached to Milestone 2: to produce additional
economic aggregates of GNI, and other primary indicators;
External Account of Primary Income and Current Transfers,
Capital and Financial Accounts for the Rest of the World.
15% (eight) African countries have reached to Milestone 3:
Production Account for All Institutional Sectors; while Income
Accounts, Capital Accounts, and Financial Accounts for General
Government.
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Road Map towards Implementation of
SNA 2008
• SNA Regional ProDoc: Scheme
– Contents of main activities and
– Roles played by AGNA members
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SNA Regional ProDoc: Scheme
Institutional Strengthening
Methodological
Development
Training
Technical
Assistance
Advocacy Campaign
Monitoring, Evaluation and Reporting
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Statistics
Methodological Development
• To develop a set of manuals/handbooks/guides for
implementation of SNA 2008
• To discuss and find solutions for technical issues and
challenges in the implementation of SNA 2008 in Africa
• To be carried out by Task Force Teams of AGNA
Countries
RECs
Methodological
Development
Pan-African Inst.
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Capacity Building: Training
• Self-training of AGNA through Task Teams working on
technical issues
• Regional seminars/workshops/meetings to disseminate
Manuals/Handbooks/Guides
• Training of national accountants at national levels by
AGNA members
Countries
RECs
Training
Pan-African Inst.
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Statistics
Capacity Building: Technical Assistance
• Provided by Pan-African Institutions, RECs, Regional National
Accounts Advisors upon the request of Member States
• To countries: lagging behind in the implementation of the 1993
SNA, ICP Africa 2005 non-participating countries, and Fragile
and Small Developing countries
RECs
Technical Assistance
Pan-African Inst.
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Statistics
Institutional Strengthening
• Through AGNA, to establish commonly agreed timelines,
procedures, and standards in the Continent, e.g.:
– To compile NA statistics according to timeline in respect of the national,
sub-regional, and regional requirements
– To optimize and rationalize production and analysis of NA
– To develop training programs and modules of NA
– To set up national accountant’s profile
Countries
RECs
Institutional
Strengthening
Pan-African Inst.
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Statistics
Advocacy Campaign
• To organize advocacy at continental, sub-regional, and
national levels: e.g. through DG meetings, Conference of
Ministers, Summits of Heads of States, and parliaments
• Prepare advocacy materials and tools to publicize and
sensitize the usefulness of NA statistics in policy- and
decision-making for governments and publics
Countries
RECs
Advocacy Campaign
Pan-African Inst.
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Statistics
Monitoring, Evaluation and Reporting
• To develop tools, framework, and procedure of and to carry out
monitoring, evaluation and reporting activities for the
implementation of the 2008 SNA
• It is to be conducted by Pan-African Institutions, RECs, and
Member States at the Continent, sub-regional, and national levels
• Peer review among countries
Countries
RECs
Monitoring, Evaluation
and Reporting
Pan-African Inst.
African Centre for
Statistics
Summary
• Importance of the System of National Accounts (SNA)
– one of the most important tools of economic analysis and
policy making
– Systematic application of macroeconomic theory
– Portrayal of the whole economic process
• Current Status of SNA in African Countries
– Limited resources and weak capacity
– Not harmonious and inconsistent and Incomplete Coverage
– At an early stage of the development of national accounts
• Road Map towards Implementation of SNA 2008
– Six activities and
– Work together by sharing responsibilities among AGNA
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United Nations Economic Commission for Africa
African Centre for
Statistics
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