Transcript MDGs in the CIS - Center for Economic Research

Europe
and CIS
MDGs in Europe and CIS:
follow up from the UN September
summit and next steps
Vladimir Mikhalev
UNDP Bratislava Regional Centre
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CER, Tashkent, 29 June 2011
Millennium Development Goals
 MDG 1: Eradicate Poverty & Hunger
 MDG 2: Achieve Universal Primary Education
 MDG 3: Promote Gender Equality
 MDG 4: Reduce Child Mortality
 MDG 5: Improve Maternal Health
 MDG 6: Combat HIV AIDS, Malaria and Other
Diseases
 MDG 7: Ensure Environmental Sustainability
 MDG 8: Develop a Global Partnership for
Development
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Europe
and CIS
Global MDG Summit
 The Global 2010 MDG Summit agreed a global action plan to meet the
MDGs
 Impressive progress has been made, but it is uneven, fragile and too slow
o Over 1 billion people still suffer form extreme poverty and hunger
o 72 million children are out of school
 Global constraints to MDG achievement:
o Global economic crisis, food and fuel crises
o Natural disasters and conflicts
o Incomplete WTO Doha round
 In sub-Saharan Africa no country is on course to achieve all MDGs
 In ECIS a regional MDG report was published jointly by UN agencies,
discussed at the regional MDG conference in Istanbul on 9-10 June 2010
 There is a clear agreement that achievement of the MDGs is possible with
right commitment
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Europe
and CIS
Commitments
 WB to increase its 0% interest loan window on education
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by $ 750 million and will increase the infrastructure
windows
ADB’s financing for clean energy water and sanitation
will increase to more than $2 billion per year
USA pledged to become a leader in development and
increase its assistance toward combating HIV/AIDS
United Kingdom will honor the target of 0.7% of GNI as
ODA
Spain committed 0.7% of GNI as ODA by 2015, despite
the economic crisis.
France increases by 20% it’s contribution to the GF for
HIV/AIDS, with a priority to Africa
Europe
and CIS
Commitments (2)
 Denmark is one of five countries that exceeded the
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commitment of 0.7% of GNI to ODA
Bulgaria committed to keep its ODA levels
Estonia welcomed the creation of UN Women and
informed about its first contribution to that body
Australia will double its ODA by 2015
Emerging donors: China, India, Korea, and Brazil will
focus on Sub-Saharan Africa; China will increase its
development assistance to LDCs
Europe
and CIS
MDG context in Europe and Central
Asia
Low-income sub-group
 Some countries have GDP per capita and poverty rates comparable to
many African countries (Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan)
 National MDG agenda widely owned by Govt & civil society
 Country Development Strategies incorporate MDGs
Middle-income sub-group
 In some countries many global targets were achieved several years ago
o Good progress in poverty reduction, education, health care
o Policy traction in these countries for MDGs is quite low
 …but, even in these countries there is a room for national MDG agenda
 Targets need to be
o Adapted to the current level of development
o Disaggregated by gender, ethnicity, sub-national regions, labour market status to
address pockets of acute poverty
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MDG 1 – progress through 2008…
 Poverty has been reduced significantly but remains high
Nationally measured
poverty rate
1999
2008
Tajikistan
64%
47%
Kyrgyzstan
63%
32%
Moldova
60%
24%
Uzbekistan
27%
24%
Source: The MDGs in Europe and Central Asia, UN 2010
 Poverty fell because of
o Rapid economic growth driven by exports of primary commodities
(gold in KG, aluminum & cotton in TJ, agro-exports in Moldova);
o High & soaring remittances: 40% of GDP in TJ, 35 % in Moldova, 28%
in KG
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Constraints to poverty reduction
 Inequality in income, wealth, social and labour market
outcomes
 Jobless growth, precarious employment, youth & long-term
unemployment, working poor
 Regional disparity with poverty concentrated in rural areas
and mono-employer towns
 Malnutrition, hunger in Central Asia
o 32 % of the rural population in Tajikistan (2009) and 28% in
Kyrgyzstan (2007) experienced inadequate food consumption
 Food insecurity due to increased food prices and dependency
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on food imports
 Steadily declining ODA for agriculture
 Inadequate social protection that is not well targeted on the
poor
Looking ahead: likely reversal on MDG 1
 Economic growth fell
Real GDP growth rate
2008
2009
Tajikistan
8%
2%
Kyrgyzstan
7.6%
0.9%
Moldova
7.2%
-0.9%
 Remittances have fallen by over 30 % in 2009 (but appeared to recover in 2010)
 Loss of local jobs, returning migrants Unemployment rising
 Poverty increased & won’t improve until growth and remittance flows resume
(hinges largely on Russian demand & labor market)
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In Moldova poverty rate increased from 24 % in 2008 to 31.2% in 2009
 The crisis-induced shrinking of the fiscal space
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Arises owing to both falling revenues and rising needs for expenditure, notably on
social protection
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Restricts the room for manoeuvre for accelerating progress toward reaching MDGs
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Aggregate poverty projections for ECIS
Percentage share in population of poor with incomes under $2.5 at
2005 prices
19.0
17.0
15.0
13.0
11.0
9.0
7.0
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2013
2014
2010
2011
2012
2007
2008
2009
2004
2005
2006
2001
2002
2003
2000
5.0
Source: Balázs Horváth, Andrey Ivanov and Mihail Peleah: The Human Development
Impact of the Global Crisis in Central, Eastern and Southern Europe and the CIS,
UNDP Bratislava Regional Center. 2010
Primary education
MDG 2 on universal primary enrolment has been largely
considered achieved but the performance is uneven
Gross primary
enrolment rate
2001/02
2006/07
2009/10
Ukraine
97.7
102.7
100.1
Armenia
105.7
101.7
108.5
Kazakhstan
103.3
108.5
109.8
Tajikistan
97.4
99.6
103.7
Kyrgyzstan
96.9
98.5
100.2
Moldova
99.4
94.4
93.5
FYR Macedonia
100.7
97.7
92.3
Uzbekistan
98.1
96.4
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Source: Transmonee database
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Europe
and CIS
Key MDG Summit messages for
Europe and Central Asia
 Efforts are needed to strengthen monitoring and
implementation of MDGs within NDSs and PRSs based on
improved data systems
 Economic policy measures are needed for promoting
inclusive and equitable growth creating employment,
supporting rural development and reducing poverty
 More, and more productive jobs are needed to generate
adequate earnings and reduce the number of working poor;
labour market policies should enforce equal opportunities
and eradicate discrimination
 Effective measures are necessary to strengthen women’s
economic and property rights, their opportunities in the
labour market and political participation
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Europe
and CIS
Key messages (2)
 Human capital needs major thrust in the region to
overcome poor education outcomes and skills
constraints
 Non–income MDGs, especially in health care will be
difficult to meet; public investment needs to be
strengthened to improve social infrastructure and
services
 HIV/AIDS and TB are major concerns; key issues are
prophylaxis, access to care and overcoming stigma and
discrimination
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Europe
and CIS
Key messages (3)
 Policies are required to address energy issues, including
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energy efficiency and sustainability of energy sources
Energy pricing must reflect environmental externalities from
fossil fuel use; additional government revenues would be
used in part to address energy affordability to the poor
Sustainable methods of land, water, and forestry resource
usage are crucial. Investment in protection of soil against
erosion, in water supply and sanitation, electrical energy
generation and transmission are essential
Climate change mitigation and adaptations measures need to
be thoroughly designed and budgeted for in national
development strategies and sector programmes
Poverty-Environment linkages should be mainstreamed in
planning and budgeting
Europe
and CIS
ECA country responses: Ukraine
 The effects of the crisis
o GDP down by 15% in 2009
o social protection was poorly targeted
o ranks of the rural and working poor swelled, with highest
vulnerability in rural areas, among large families and
pensioners over 70
 Response
o pensions and minimum wages increased by 20% in real
terms in 2009
o development of a new PRS
o compensations to the poor for increase in energy prices
(necessary to ensure financial viability of utilities)
o vocational and adult education as means of tackling high
unemployment
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Europe
and CIS
Moldova
Moldova offers a clear example of the critical role
of political will in achieving MDGs despite the
effects of the crisis
 On track to reach 21 out of 27 MDG targets
o effective, well-targeted social protection critical for this
success
o but primary and secondary enrolment decreased: in
2008 the gross enrolment ratio into primary education
was 93.6% against 94% in 2007 and 99.4% in 2000
 Anti-crisis package attracted donor pledges of
USD 2.6 billion
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Europe
and CIS
Serbia
 Serbia’s Poverty Reduction Strategy has remained on
track despite three changes in government owing to
o having a well-designed, realistic document
o strongly participatory process involving NGOs and civil society
that generated strong buy-in, including from local governments
o an effective central-level coordination unit led by the deputy
Prime Minister
 Serbia is coming out of crisis, but spending constraints
remain, necessitating further reforms to do “more with
less”
 Critical issues
o identifying and supporting the “new poor”
o effectively addressing social exclusion (using the EU social
inclusion concept)
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Europe
and CIS
The UN response
UNDP MDG Breakthrough Strategy
 “Business unusual” course to 2015 prioritizing achievement of
MDGs
 Aligning UN Country Teams services with national MDG priorities
 Targeting off-track MDGs by the MDG Acceleration Framework (MAF)
Three pillars of the MDG Breakthrough Strategy
Accelerating progress by scaling up proven and innovative
initiatives
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Creating enabling environment to sustain progress
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effective policies, good governance, peace and security
Strengthening advocacy, partnerships and resources
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gender, energy, water & sanitation, education, health, sustainable agriculture
national budgets, ODA, private sector, civil society
MDG Acceleration Framework
MAF is the core of MDG Breakthrough Strategy
 bottleneck identification and prioritization
 acceleration solution selection
 implementation planning and monitoring
Areas of intervention with multiplier effects
 Investing in women and girls
 Access to clean and affordable energy
 Access to safe water and basic sanitation
Investing in innovation
 Legal empowerment of the poor
 Microfinance for the MDGs
 Conditional Cash Transfers for the MDGs
MAF is piloted in 10 countries
 In ECIS, Tajikistan is a pilot country – the area of intervention is
energy access for the poor
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