Transcript Kazakhstan

Kazakhstan
Business outlook 2015-18
Quarterly update – July 2015
by Dr Daniel Thorniley
Contents
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Executive summary
What execeuitievs ares aying about the market
Influencers on the eceonomy: good and bad factors
Corporate sales and profits trends
Strategic business issues
Economic outlook
Inflation and interest rate outlook
Currency outlook
Forecast table
Executive summary (1)
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Kazakhstan as a market still ranks strongly in our Survey of 23 CEE markets
It ranks No 3 as a CEE priority market for the next 3 years behind Russia and Poland
But some of the shine is coming off the economy this year
Executives remain concerned about a possible tenge devaluation and parallel imports are
hurting many local players
More companies now plan to make cuts in marketing and sales as downtrading increases
and issues with receivables also deteriorate (at a manageable level)
Compared with other CIS and CEE markets Kazakhstan has performed very well and ranks
4 the this year for the rate of sales growth outlook behind Turkey, Romani and Bulgaria
In 2016 it actually ranks No 1 for overall rate of sales growth and so executives are
predicting some economic and business recovery in 2016
It is very clear from sales and profit predictions that executives plan for a moderate year in
2015 with some respectable upside in 2016
The economy is under-going a strong slowdown in 2015 after a deceleration last year
But the positive side is that the authorities are willing to stimulate the economy and
Kazakhstan is doing a better job of trying to stimulate its economy than Russia in the last
year
Executive summary (2)
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Once the devaluation of February 2014 had run through the system, the economic
recovery did not turn out to be so sustainable
But as with other CIS markets, the big unknown question is how long will the Russian
rouble continue its current rally
The Kazakh authorities and National Bank seem to have adopted a sensible “wait and
see approach” monitoring weekly the rationale for the desirability and scale of any
devaluation
Prior to the Russian rouble’s recent recovery, many predicted a tenge devaluation of 1530% but a scale of 10-15% now looks more plausible
Inflation is trending downwards as demand and consumption slow and we expect
average inflation of 4.8% this year with some upside risk and then rising by 5.4% next
year
If the tenge is devalued by 15-20%, then we do see higher figures of 6.5% to 7% for
2016
The global oil price is down more than 50% and other commodities prices are low or
worse
But we think the government will seek to prevent a deep slump by kick-starting the
economy through fiscal policy and employing various reserve funds
Executive summary (3)
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Some indicators are already starting to decline markedly with retail sales in April-May
2015 at their lowest in 5-6 years
Industrial output is very patchy in the first months of 2015 after weak industrial output
in recent years
And business confidence has been especially weak in the last 4-5 months
But the non-oil sector is still somewhat strong, backed by an increase in government
spending on wages as well as investments – overall fixed investment growth was 5.0%
last year and will be close to that figure this year as the government pump-primes the
economy
Foreign direct investment averaged $6.0bn per quarter in recent years but in 2015 is
averaging just $4.6bn per quarter
GDP will decelerate this year to 1.5% growth after 4.3% in 2014 and we think the
economy will recover moderately to 2.8% in 2016 and 4.3% in 2017 as Russia recovers,
oil prices stabilise and presuming some resolution (or frozen conflict) for eastern
Ukraine and Chinese growth at 6-7% range
But still, overall Kazakhstan remains the top or second-top CEE market for sales growth
and western business confidence and in comparison with other markets is one of the
strongest
Executive summary (4)
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The tenge remains at around its post-2014 devaluation rate to the dollar (185) but has
regained about half its level to the Euro
With the rouble rally of the first half of 2015, the tenge has gotten back “within sight” of
some level of market parity with the rouble which will only complicates Kazakh decisionmaking regarding any potential devaluation
Executives are “looking over their shoulder” for the tenge devaluation
And thus some of the enthusiasm for the market is rubbing off
There is no consensus on when or by how much the tenge will/may be devalued
Our central scenario is for some shift in currency policy to ensure that a devaluation of 1015% takes place in the next 3-9 months
Along with Belarus and Armenia, Kazakhstan is set to join the Eurasia Economic Union (the
successor to the current Customs Union) in January, but it has stopped short of agreeing to
any further political ties and most businesses have already factored in the pros and cons
The EEU is making some western companies in the pharmaceutical sector for example
think of registering products in Kazakhstan so as to get quick access to the Russian market
To demonstrate it is not “choosing sides” over Ukraine, Kazakhstan also plans to sign a
cooperation agreement with the EU in 2015
What executives are saying about the market
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The regional manager of one major consumer product company noted last week that:
“Business is ok but not what it was. We were growing 9 months ago by 9% and 18
months we were growing sales at 14%. Now we are closer to 4%. The whole economy
has come down a peg and confidence is softer. The expectations of a devaluation still
hang in the air but not as badly as 3-4 months back. We are also being hit in our sector
by parallel imports and this is encouraging more grey and black activity than is usual, so
I would appreciate something being done about the FX rate. When you combine the
overall deceleration with parallel imports, the market has changed from being a really
sweet one to just an ok one”
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The local MD of a US conglomerate reported also last week that: “Exports are down and
we supply to sectors that do sell abroad so we are getting hit a bit there. But thankfully
being a conglomerate we also have domestic infrastructure sales and we are supplying
to some government-sponsored projects and sales there are rising by 20%. Put
everything together and we are increasing sales with decent profits by 8-10% and so
not many complaints but it could always be better…and it was!”
Influencers on the economy:
good and bad factors (1)
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There is little direct impact on Kazakhstan from the Ukraine/Russia crisis but the indirect
linkages are many: loss of confidence, weaker regional growth, less local or foreign direct
investment
• The Russia-Ukraine crisis has turned into a messy frozen conflict which will continue to
blight growth in the region and marginally in Kazakhstan until and if it is resolved
Negative factors:
1. The Ukraine conflict will impact growth across the CIS this year but less so later as the
situation normalises and as Kazakhstan continues to diversify forging closer ties with China,
Iran, the EU
2. Global economic trends such as the sluggish Eurozone, decelerating China and weak
average oil price will be the big influencers in the next 2-3 years
3. The government is pump-priming infrastructure spending but other sectors will face
budget cut-backs of up to 10% this year
4. And any future devaluation will push prices upwards and consumer spending and
confidence downwards
5. The banking sector and non-performing loans of at least 20% of the total loans remain a
drag on bank lending and there has been little improvement in the last 6-9 months
Influencers on the economy:
good and bad factors (2)
But there are at least 4 positives for Kazakhstan to suggest that the slowdown will be
moderated:
1. Kazakhstan ought to be become self-sufficient in oil from around 2017 when the
Kashagan oil field should come fully and finally on stream in that year after a false start
in 2013
2. The global economy will recover moderately in the next 2-3 years and Russia ought to
climb out of its recession
3. The authorities will ensure that they pump-prime the economy (see notes on economy
below) and the National Bank is keeping the key refinancing interest rate at low 5.5%
4. This involves the National Bank drawing from its sizeable forex reserves and the oil fund
– which together total $104bn
2015 sales projections
Latest 2015 sales projections main CIS markets (in local currencies)
Growth of 10%+
Growth of 5-10%
Growth of 1-5%
Zero growth
Decline 1-10%
Decline of 10%+
Russia
35%
20%
14%
9%
11%
9%
Source: Business Russia/CIS Group Surveys
Ukraine
18%
8%
7%
14%
31%
22%
Kazakhstan
27%
28%
11%
23%
11%
0%
Belarus
27%
16%
11%
28%
16%
1%
Corporate sales and profit trends (1)
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We conduct two Surveys of the Kazakh market: one which compares another 23 CEE
and CIS markets and one which compares it with just CIS markets.
The results show Kazakhstan ranks 4th for sales growth in 2015 and rises to No 1 in 2016
These figures relate to rate of sales growth and not to volume: Russia accounts for
some 75% to 85% of the volume of CIS business for most western manufacturing
companies
But as Ukraine has collapsed as a market, so too Kazakhstan has seen its proportion of
the CIS market rise from 3-4% to 6-10% (admittedly of a currently CIS smaller cake)
With the some sort of tenge devaluation envisaged, lower domestic growth, regional
risk in CIS and moderate slowdown in the major trading, China, it might not be too
surprising to note that executives expect some business softening this year in
comparison with 2013-14
Still the sales outlook for 2015 is relatively strong but weaker than in our Survey
conducted 6 months ago
Some 17% of respondents predict negative sales expansion in 2015 while another 14%
forecast flat sales
Some 40% forecast single-digit growth with more of these tending to lower-single digits
And this leaves a solid 26% forecasting double-digit sales in 2015
Corporate sales and profit trends (2)
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As we predicted in our last quarterly report, there was some downside to forecasts
made 3-6 months ago and this has turned out to be true
Profit trends in both 2015 and 2016 mirror very closely those of sales
For 2016 Kazakhstan rises to No 1 spot regionally as only 4% of respondents predict
negative sales trends in 2016 with 7% forecasting flat growth
Fully 65% of respondents aim for single-digit sales growth and these are spread evenly
over low-single and high-single digit sales
Once again more than 20% of firms plan for double-digit growth next year
The lead sectors for growth are food and beverages, where all companies expect to
grow this year, and healthcare and pharmaceuticals
Consumer product companies have typically done well in Kazakhstan on the back of
ever-increasing wages, but with the February 2014 devaluation, expectations for 2015
became more sober during last year and slower real wages this year will make
companies consider affordable innovation and less of a push of top-end premium
products
Corporate sales and profit trends (3)
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Business for consumer goods companies has balanced out: firstly the negative impacts
of the 2014 devaluation started to filter out of the figures but then the economy overall
softened and wages and retail sales started to decline on the back of weaker GDP
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This is why in 2015 some 17% of CP firms predict negative sales trends and 11% look to
flat sales with 50% forecasting single-digit sales
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This still means that 22% are budgeting for double-digit sales
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As with sales forecast overall, these predictions in this sector for 2015 are somewhat
softer than those of 6 months ago
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But executives do then expect an economic rally to push sales trends faster: in the CP
sector Kazakhstan ranks No 1 in 2016 for sales growth with no companies expecting
negative or flat sales (!) and then admittedly a massive 69% plumping for single digits
and 31% forecasting low-double digits
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When most markets look to single-digits sales in this sector and often low-single digits,
these figures explain why Kazakhstan ranks No 1
Corporate sales and profit trends (4)
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The IT sector is very mixed depending on sub-sector and customers, but overall the vast
majority of companies expected to see growth last year in 2015 and 2106 on the back
of some government spending plans
Industrial B2B companies as usual have the lowest expectations, in-line with regional
trends, but still Kazakhstan sticks out positively here as well: for 2015 some 52% of
respondents forecast single digits with 25% planning for low double
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This ought to rank Kazakhstan very highly for this sector in the region but the fact that
almost 20% forecast negative sales and 6% budget for flat sales, this pulls the market
down into mid-table in our Survey
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Just to qualify this though: Kazakhstan does rank in the top-three markets regionally for
B2B firms predicting double-digit sales
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As with other sectors, the picture improves for 2016 and Kazakhstan does rank 3 rd in
B2B sales for 2016 behind Russia and Turkey
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Next year no firm in B2B plans for negative growth , only 7% forecast flat sales and once
again there is a huge clustering in single digits where fully 86% (!) of respondents expect
to find themselves
Corporate sales and profit trends (5)
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After ranking 10th regionally for sales in the pharmaceuticals and health sector some 6
months ago, improvements in the Kazakhstan market and relative declines in other
markets have pushed Kazakhstan to No 1 slot for 2015 and 2016
This year no company forecasts negative sales, one quarter forecast flat sales and 33%
predict single-digit sales which means that some 32% budget for double-digit sales this
year
The trend looks similar next year with no negative sales and 17% forecasting flat growth
and then fully 58% aiming for single digits (mostly high-single digits) and then another
solid 25% expecting double digits
As is usual in this sector, it depends on product category, government priority
reimbursement lists and OTC/retail trends and usually as governments cut back, retail
sales perform relatively better
So for all sectors, business is steady to good this year with most companies planning for
an improved outlook in 2016
In comparison with most other markets, Kazakhstan remains a solid/steady market for
now
Many sectors this year and next are clustered largely in single digits but with often a
solid portion forecasting low-double digit sales
Kazakhstan
Latest forecasts: revenue and profit results by sector, 2015
From our June 2015 survey
Kazakhstan
Latest forecasts: revenue and profit results by sector, 2016
From our June 2015 survey
Strategic business issues (1)
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The operating environment is generally good by CIS standards and executives often
speak warmly of operating trends compared to neighbouring countries
Perceptions of corruption are lower than in Ukraine and companies say the amount of
red tape is less burdensome than in Russia
Given current economic and political trends, more companies will be turning to
Kazakhstan rather than Ukraine for growth prospects, but Ukraine remains bigger
usually for volume.
For many/most western companies Kazakhstan is now a larger volume market than
Ukraine
For most companies it will be the biggest market in the CIS behind Russia in 2014-16
Kazakhstan ranks third (behind Russia and Poland) for companies’ hiring plans, with 17%
of companies raising headcount this year. This number is slightly lower than the one
from last summer which also suggests that the market could be slowing or that
companies have already hired the staff they require for 2015 budgets
Strategic business issues (2)
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Kazakhstan ranks 6th for companies (17%) modifying their route to market, which is down on
previous scores probably because companies have already implemented the changes
Route to market is crucially important in Kazakhstan which still represents a growing market
and with clients and consumers spread over a large geography
Few companies (7%) report plans to cut headcount as the market remains quite strong and
this number probably reflects churn and re-allocation of posts
The problem of supply and demand for local or expatriate staff is one of the key challenges
cited by investors
Some companies employ young expats who want some exotic excitement early in their
careers but the balance with experience is then hard to find
As the market has slowed, so to the number of companies planning to cut their marketing
and sales activity in this country has risen from 8% some 6 months ago to 21% today
This may look a bit like knee-jerk response given that most companies do except a rally next
year
But trends in downtrading this year have also worsened with 36% of companies reporting
this feature compared with 20% some 6 months ago
And similarly with receivables, now 33% report some issues (not necessarily bad debt)
compared with 19% just 6 months ago
Economic outlook (1)
GDP and growth drivers
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Kazakhstan’s economy has survived recent global and regional headwinds reasonably
well but continued downward trends in Russia and the weak oil price will ensure slower
GDP growth this year
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After growth of 4.3% last year, GDP will slow to 1.5% this year and then climb back to
2.8% as global and regional demand recovers and the shock of the oil price collapse is
absorbed
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In 2017-2020 GDP growth will average 4.8% with some small upside risk
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The economy did survive the February 2014 devaluation after some initial glitches and a
figure of 4%+ growth in 2014 was “not bad” but other factors apart from the February
2014 devaluation have since set in
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The big worry hanging over the economy is the possibility of another devaluation taking
place this year. However, the recent Russian rouble surge complicates decision-making
about the timing and extent of the devaluation (see currency note below)
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For example, the Kazakh current account surplus declined to 2.3% of GDP last year and
this year will probably sink to a deficit of -4.0% with some commentators suggesting a
figure of minus -6%. Whatever the final figure, this will be another strain on the
currency outlook
Economic outlook (2)
GDP and growth drivers
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But the government and National Bank have propped up the economy which would
have been in a much worse state without these measures
1) The central refinancing interest rate has been kept low at 5.5%
2) Two stimulus packages are already up and running both financed from the
National Fund: in early 2014 a 2-year program was introduced worth $5.4bn
intended to support SMEs and to buttress bank balance sheets; the second
package worth a further $3bn annually during 2015-17 is targeted at
infrastructure spending (1.4% of 2014 GDP). Combined spending from both these
funds in 2015 could add up to $5.7bn which comes to almost 2.6% of GDP
3) Investment will also be aided by spending on the 2017 Expo
As a result the National Oil fund has shrunk from $77bn in August 2014 to $69bn in
May, still a healthy supporting amount
But foreign investment (aside perhaps from China) is likely to be stymied by the ongoing regional uncertainty at least for the coming year and FDI is down to a quarterly
rate of $4.6bn compared with $6.0bn quarterly in recent years
After recording 5% growth last year, we see investment holding up solidly at 5.3% in
2015 before decelerating marginally in later years as this spending boost filters out
Economic outlook (3)
GDP and growth drivers
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Though export volumes shot up following the devaluation, in US dollars both exports
and imports were down -7% and -15% respectively in 2014
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Monthly exports averaged $6.5bn to $7.5bn in the last two years and were at the lower
end of this range in the final months of 2014. With the depreciated oil price, we see
further cutbacks in export revenues and hence why the current account will dip into
sizeable negative territory as a portion of GDP at about -4.0% this year
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But exports have decelerated more sharply in recent months and after a monthly figure
of $5.2bn last December the average monthly figure for the first 4 months of 2015 was
a mere $3.7bn, by far one of the lowest figures in years
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Imports have also slumped from their monthly average of $3.6bn in 2013-14 to just a
monthly average of $2.5bn so far this year
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It now looks as though trade will be a net negative contributing factor to GDP
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Thus the current account surplus will turn into deficit on the back of weaker trade and
softer revenues from services and investment
Economic outlook (4)
GDP and growth drivers
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Business confidence was holding up so far and the indicator has averaged about 10-12 in
the last year but fell to 4 in December last year. This indicator starts each year badly so we
should not be too surprised when figures for the first months are eventually published
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But the bad news is that this confidence indicator is running at record low levels in MayJune this year at 0-4 level
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The danger is that poor business confidence sets in for the long-term on the back of low
oil prices, higher inflation and the potential tenge devaluation as well as falling exports
and retail sales (butt the good news here is that inflation is decelerating at least
temporarily)
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Industry rose by a mere 0.2% last year after figures of 1-2% in earlier years. The 2014
average figure hides some fluctuations within the year but 2014 did end on a declining
trend
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And 2015 has started poorly or very patchily for industry with positive and negative
figures through the first 5 months for an average of 0.5% for this period
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And it will be 2017 at the earliest before the massive Kashagan oil field comes on stream
(which should double output but has been beset by delays and massive cost overruns) –
until then earnings will mainly fluctuate in-line with oil prices
Economic outlook (5)
government spending
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Government budget spending will be down by -7% to -9% his year
However much of the spending will be off-budget, including investments via loans
financed by the $69bn national oil fund
After the devaluation of February 2014, the government went into more stimulus mode to
combat falling growth and this will have to remain the trend as oil prices continue to
slump
As the government spends more and revenues decline, then the budget deficit will widen
this year from -3% in 2014 to minus -3.3% this year and staying at about -3% for 1-2 years
Large infrastructure investment projects should benefit from the increase in government
spending, with several major transport and logistics
Targets to increase the total of the National Oil Fund will now fall by the wayside due to
low oil prices
Chinese investment will also keep pouring in – Chinese representatives signed $30bn
worth of investments last September
China is now estimated to own half of Kazakhstan’s oil assets
The government is also trying to increase the competitiveness of its state-owned
enterprises (SOEs) and Samruk Kazyna, the state holding company which manages $100bn
of SOEs, is planning to spin off certain assets and using the funds to invest in new sectors
Economic outlook (6)
consumer spending
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Consumer spending in recent years was aided by wage hikes and new bank credits
Public sector wages were hiked 10.7% in 2014 and we expect a rise of about 6-7% this year and
next in overall wages (before inflation)
Slower nominal wages will mean a reduction in real wage growth: from +3% last year to just 1%
in 2015 and 1.5% in 2016 as inflation remains sticky at 6% to 8.5% range
Slightly lower inflation this year will have a marginally positive effect on real wages but then we
expect prices to rise again next year and any devaluation would push prices higher still
But low unemployment (about 5.2%) in recent years and in 2015-17, credit emission and
consumers eating into savings all combined in keeping retail spending at a very healthy 12%
average in 2014 matching similar numbers in 2013 and 2012
Even though retail sales grew 13% in the second half of last year, they started 2015 badly: just
4.7% expansion in January and slumped to 1.7% in April and 2.4% in May
Even with softer inflation this year, first figures suggest that retail sales will record one of their
worsts figures in recent years at about 2.0% this year and 3.6% in 2016 with some upside risk
Household spending generally should slow down to 1.2% in 2015 and then rise by 3.3% in 2016
and average 4.5% in subsequent years
Consumer confidence held steady at level of 17 through the first half of this year which is close
to the annual average in 2010-14
The above analysis explains well the current and future trends experienced by consumer product
companies
Inflation and interest rate outlook
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The February 2014 devaluation pushed inflation from 4.4% in January 2014 to 7.4% in
January this year
As we anticipated in our last report, there were signs that the inflationary trend was
decelerating and when we add falling oil prices to the equation (Kazakhstan still imports
about one third of fuel needs, mainly from Russia), along with softer food prices, then we
expected to see inflation on a downward curve over the next 3-9 months and this has
started through the first half of this year with inflation at 6.1% in February and down to a
recent low of 3.9% in June
Weak domestic demand, slower wage increases and rising retail competition via
downtrading also add to the trend in slower inflation
Any upcoming devaluation would probably push prices up an extra 1 or 1.5 percentage
points over the next 12 months; of course the extent of the inflation surge will depend on
the scope of the devaluation
Given soft prices at the start of the year, we see average inflation this year as low as 4.8%
with upside risk and then ticking back to 5.4% in 2016 as the economy recovers and low oil
prices flow out of the base effects
Despite negative real interest rates, the National Bank has kept the refinancing rate at 5.5%
for over a year now in order to boost and support flagging growth and the Bank will aim to
keep rates at this level as long as inflation stays below its upper limit of 8%
Currency outlook
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The strong consensus was that the tenge would devalue by 12-23% in the weeks after the
spring elections but a smaller devaluation rather than a big one now looks more likely
The consensus is that the tenge will reach 210-215 to the US dollar with devaluation from
its current level of 184.0 (mid-June)
Since January the tenge has fluctuated versus the dollar in a very defined range of 183 to
184.5 which means that it has solidified versus the Euro and climbed (for some time)
steeply against the rouble
The intended aim of any devaluation is to keep the tenge competitive against a number of
currencies with special focus on the rouble. With a collapsed Russian rouble and slumped
oil prices a devaluation of 12-23% looked fairly certain despite government and Bank
denials
We still presume that a devaluation will be announced but the timing and scope of such
measures are now much more complicated than 2-6 months ago
It is also possible that as the National Bank moves slowly to an inflation-targeting system,
that it could create a corridor for the tenge and let the currency weaken more gradually
within such newly created bands
Our central economic estimates in this report are based on an eventual devaluation or
widening of bands by 10-15% during the second half of the year/ end of the year, taking
the tenge to about 215 to the dollar
But we do concede that there are many imponderables and variables in this scenario
Kazakhstan - economic outlook: statistics
(based on central scenario/presumption that a devaluation of the tenge will
occur spring/summer 2015)
GDP
Fixed investment
Industrial output
Household spending
Government spending
Real wages
Retail sales (average)
Consumer prices (average)
Budget balance (% GDP)
Current account (% GDP)
Tenge/euro (average)
Tenge/dollar (average)
Unemployment (%)
Note: Real annual % change unless stated
2012
5.0
3.7
0.5
11.0
13.2
6.9
14.1
5.1
-3.0
4.6
192
149
5.4
2013
6.0
7.0
1.3
9.0
2.0
1.2
14.2
5.8
-2.5
0.0
197
152
5.2
2014
4.3
5.0
0.2
5.6
2.6
3.0
12.0
6.8
-3.0
2.2
230
182
5.0
2015
1.5
5.3
0.5
1.2
3.2
1.0
2.0
4.8
-3.3
-4.0
225
186
5.2
2016
2.8
4.5
1.9
3.3
2.9
1.5
3.6
5.4
-2.9
-3.9
230
215
4.8
2017
4.2
5.4
3.2
4.3
2.7
3.0
4.4
5.4
-2.8
-3.1
230
220
4.7
2018
5.1
5.5
4.2
4.5
2.5
3.3
4.5
5.3
-2.3
-2.0
224
225
4.7
© 2015 CEEMEA Business Group*
*a joint venture between
DT-Global Business Consulting GmbH, Address: Keinergasse 8/33, 1030 Vienna, Austria,
Company registration: FN 331137t
and GSA Global Success Advisors GmbH, Hoffeldstraße 5, 2522 Oberwaltersdorf, Austria
Company registration: FN 331082k
Source: DT-Global Business Consulting GmbH and CEEMEA Business Group research
Basic data sources come from central banks, own intelligence network, CEEMEA Business Group
corporate survey, governments and other public sources. Interpretation, views, forecasts, business
quotes and business outlooks by DT-Global Business Consulting GmbH and CEEMEA Business Group.
This material is provided for information purposes only. It is not a recommendation or advice of any
investment or commercial activity whatsoever. The CEEMEA Business Group accepts no liability for any
commercial losses incurred by any party acting on information in these materials.
Contact: Dr Daniel Thorniley, President, DT-Global Business Consulting GmbH
M: +43 676 534 6852 / E: [email protected] / W: www.ceemeabusinessgroup.com