Transcript 06092013 Presentación Banamex v.5x

The other Rising Economic Giant of the Asia-Pacific
June 2ND, 2014
Forecasts
World’s largest economies in 2013
th
14
LARGEST
In 2025
1 USA
2 China
4 Germany
6 United Kingdom
8 Russia
10 India
12 Australia
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Mexico
According to
Accenture, Mexico
will be one of the
Big Six.
ECONOMY
In 2050
1 China
2 USA
3 India
4 Brazil
5 México
According to HSBC
Mexico will be the
8th largest economy.
5th
largest economy,
according to
Goldman Sachs.
Source: ProMéxico with information of Goldman Sachs. The N-11: More Than an Acronym. Documento de economía mundial No: 153. Marzo de 2007/ HSBC/
ACCENTURE.1/ Pronóstico de Goldman Sachs / Fondo Monetario Internacional.
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Impact of reforms in GDP
Forecasts of structural reforms effect on GDP Growth, (%)
2.5 - 3.0%
+0.1%
+0. 5%
Natural GDP
Growth Rate
(2013)
Labor
Reform
Telecom
Reform
Source: ProMéxico with information of SHCP.
+1.0%
+0. 3%
Energy
Reform
Financial
Reform
4.4 - 4.9%
New Natural
GDP
Growth Rate
(2018)
3
5 competitive advantages
Sophisticated
economy
Macroeconomic
environment
Human Capital
Internal Market
Gateway to
America
4
Bilateral trade between
Mexico and Australia (2003-2013)
MUSD
988
518
429
199
Exports
Source: ProMéxico with information of Banxico, 2013.
Imports
Trade balance
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Mexico: 14th largest country
Equals to the
size of the four largest countries
in Europe
Germany
=
Spain
France
Sweden
Solid macroeconomic environment
Evolution of inflation, exports and international reserves in Mexico (2000- 2013)
Infllation 2013
3.97%
Reserves 2013
Record-high
176 billion USD
Exports 2013
Record-high
380 billion USD
Billion USD
Manufactures
Oil
Primary
Reserves
Inflation
Source: ProMéxico with information of INEGI / Bank of Mexico.
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Exports per capita
Exports per capita (selected economies), 1993 - 2013
1994
2013
Thousand USD
Thousand USD
Canada
5,154.4
9,613.4
USA
1,912.7
4,466.3
Mexico
599.4
2,796.5
Russia
0.0
1,848.7
China
97.6
1,599.7
Brazil
268.2
1,099.6
India
26.7
195.7
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Source: ProMéxico with information of GTA/ Bank of Mexico/ Ministry of Commerce and Industry of Brazil / Russia’s Central Bank/ BEA/ Stratcan.
FDI flows into Mexico (1999-2013*)
40,000
35,188
35,000
Record-high
30,000
25,000
20,000
15,453
15,000
10,000
5,000
MUSD -
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
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Source: Ministry of Economy. General Directorate of Foreign Investment. */ Figures to September 2013.
Positive
Ratings
A3
Baa1
Mexico: sovereign
debt credit ratings
Baa3
BBB+
BBB+
BBB
BBB
BBB+
BBB
BBB+
BBB
BBB-
BBB-
Source: Fitch Ratings, Standar &
Poor’s Rating Services, Moody’s
Investor Service.
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We are commited to free trade
Our FTAs give privileged access to 1.2 billion consumers.
45 countries
with FTA’s
Brazil
China
8
19
20
42
United States
Colombia
With the TPP, Mexico will increase its presence in Australia, Brunei, Malaysia, New
Zealand, Singapore and Vietnam.
Source: ProMéxico with information of Brazil; China: Colombia:; United States: ; Chile: Direcon; Mexico: Ministry of Economy.
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Mexico as part of NAFTA
• +50 border crossings
with the US.
• NAFTA market= 19
trillion USD.
NASCO Corridor
• 16 trillion European Union.
• Bilateral trade with the
U.S.= 1 million dollars
per minute.
• 1 million people and 300
thousand vehicles
crossing the border daily.
Source: ProMéxico with information of SCT/ US Department of Transportation.
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Demographics are on our side
Men
Women
Demographic
Bonus
Youth
Old-age
 118 million inhabitants with a median of 27 years.
 52 million in the labor force.
 According to forecasts, there will be more than 83 million people of
productive age by 2020.
Source: ProMéxico with information of US Census Bureau: http://www.census.gov/population/international/data/idb/informationGateway.php ; INEGI,
2011; Population Projections for Mexico 2005-2050, CONAPO. *Population (in millions) by age group.
13
Mexico: demographic sweet spot
Working Age Population
Indexed: 1990 = 100
Source: ProMéxico with information of United Nations, Haver Analytics.
Mexico
Brazil
China
Chile
14
Mexico private Consumption outpaces its peers
2013 Private Consumption as a % of GDP
69%
58%
58%
61%
62%
36%
China Indonesia
India
Colombia Brazil
Mexico
Source: ProMéxico with information of Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística, Departamento Administrativo Nacional de Estadísticas, Instituto Nacional
de Estadística Geografía e Informática, Central Statistical Organization, India, Badan Pusat Statistik, China National Bureau of Statistics, Haver Analytics.
15
Large domestic market
Mexico’s Retail Sales Index
Index 2003=100; SA
GDP by PPP
(1990-2018)
Historic
Forecast
• $15,000 USD= median income.
• According to forecasts, income will grow 20% by 2016.
Source: INEGI/ IMF.
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Mexico’s global leadership
AEROSPACE
• Mexico is the 6th
supplier to the
American
aerospace industry.
ELECTRICELECTRONIC
• Leading flat
television screen
exporter in the
world.
Source: ProMéxico with information of FEMIA, GTA, AMIA y OICA.
AUTOMOTIVE AND
AUTOPARTS
• 8th producer and 4th
exporter globally of new
light vehicles in the world.
IT
• 3rd largest
exporter in the
world.
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A sophisticated economy
Exports of Medium and high manufactures as percentage of
the GDP (2013)*
Source: ProMéxico with information of IHS – Global Insight. / * Only G20 nations.
1
South Korea
28.9%
2
Germany
24.8%
3
Mexico
4
China
16.7
%
14.1%
5
France
12.4%
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www.promexico.gob.mx
[email protected]
@ProMexicoTW
+52 (55) 54 47 7000
Camino a Santa Teresa 1679,
Col. Jardines del Pedregal
CP 01900, México, D.F.
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