Transcript Mr. Jhon Fonseca

WTO Conference & Exhibition
6 May 2015 Freeport, Bahamas
Jhon Fonseca
Viceminister of Foreign Trade
Global competitiveness report (Foro Económico Mundial)
148 economías en una escala de 1 a 7
País
Ranking 2013-2014
Calificación
Panamá
40
4,50
Costa Rica
54
4,35
Guatemala
86
4,04
El Salvador
97
3,84
Nicaragua
99
3,84
Honduras
111
3,70
NOTA: califica 12 componentes: instituciones, infraestructura, ambiente macroeconómico, salud y educación primaria, educación superior y capacita
ción, eficiencia del mercado de bienes, eficiencia del mercado laboral, desarrollo del mercado financiero, avance tecnológico, tamaño del mercado, s
ofisticación de los negocios e innovación.
Logistics performance index (Banco Mundial)
160 países en una escala de 1 a 5
País
Ranking 2014
Calificación 2014
Panamá
45
3.19
El Salvador
64
2.96
Guatemala
77
2.80
Costa Rica
87
2.70
Nicaragua
95
2.65
Honduras
103
2.61
NOTA: califica 6 áreas: aduanas (eficiencia de las agencias en frontera), infraestructura, envíos internacionales (competitividad
en precios), servicios logísticos, trazabilidad de envíos, tiempo a destino final
What is trade facilitation?
Simplification, harmonization, standardization and
modernization of trade procedures, with the purpose
of reducing trade transaction costs at the interface
between business and government (Grainger 2011)
Common misconceptions
• Elimination or reduction of controls
• Decrease of tax revenue
• Moderation of safety measures
• Large monetary investments
Central American Trade Facilitation Strategy
Instructed by Chief of States through the Punta Cana
Declaration (June 2014) to the Council of Ministers of the
Economic Integration
1. Short term measures (1-2 years)
– Advanced lodging and exchange of customs declarations
– Exchange of migratory information between countries
– Exchange of SPS electronic certificates between countries
– Use of radio frequency systems for cargo control
– Use of video surveillance systems for border crossings
Central American Trade Facilitation Strategy
2. Long term measures (up to 6 years)
– Infrastructure and equipment
– Border procedure coordination-integration
– Integral risk management
– AEO programs
3. Central American Digital Trade Platform
Central American Digital Trade Platform
Goal: Integration of the customs, single
window and immigration procedures and
information in Central America.
Phase 1: interoperability of existing
national systems.
Phase 2: innovative trade facilitation
services especially designed for the
region.
Digital trade platform viability
Objective:
to determine the technical viability of a digital trade platform
that will facilitate trade in Central America
Methodology:
- Comparative analysis of the current state of automation for customs
procedures in each country.
- Mapping of immigration procedures.
- Comparative analysis of the IT context.
- Identification of opportunities in terms of operational convergence,
interoperability and accessibility.
Main conclusions
Operator records
The development of a
Central American Digital
Trade Platform is viable.
Benefits in the following
areas:
Risk management
Immigration procedures
Declarations
(lodging, data exchange, etc.)
Exchange of information
The development of the platform will entail the adoption of standards on business process
management, business intelligence, and Model Driven Message Interoperability.
It is possible to develop the platform in two incremental scenarios: a Service Oriented
Architecture based interoperability platform, and a set of building blocks for new services for
the areas mentioned above.
Potential impacts of implementing a
trade facilitation platform (ECLAC)
Objective:
to estimate the macroeconomic impact of a Central American platform of trade facilitation (TF) for:
•
•
Automation and streamlining of transit procedures
Reduction of import / export time
Methodology:
• Estimation of import / export time
• Use of a gravitational model to estimate ad valorem equivalents (AVEs) by sector and country
• Calibration of a Computable General Equilibrium Model (CGEM) to create baseline scenario
with the AVEs
• Two simulations: very ambitious scenario (AVEs cut by 90-95%), and less ambitious scenario
(AVEs cut by 50%).
• Goods aggregated in 8 sectors; both intra-CA trade and CA trade with 3rd countries were
considered
Elements beyond the scope of this
analysis
Ad valorem equivalents:
simulation scenarios
Central America: Ad valorem equivalents in both
scenarios vrs statu quo
Very ambitious scenario
Less ambitious scenario
Statu quo
40.0
37.0
35.0
30.0
25.0
24.1
22.5
26.4
25.1
24.9
18.5
20.0
15.2
15.0
10.0
5.0
13.2
12.6
12.5
12.1
11.3
7.6
1.5
2.4
2.3
2.5
2.5
2.6
3.7
0.0
Panamá
El Salvador
Centroamérica
Costa Rica
Honduras
Source: ECLAC
Central American ad valorem equivalent 24.1
Guatemala
Nicaragua
Very ambitious scenario:
changes in GDP by country
Guatemala
3,0%
El Salvador
3,1%
The very ambitious scenario
would imply an increase of 3%
of Central America GDP
Honduras
5,2%
Nicaragua
12,0%
Costa Rica
1,8%
Panama
0,5%
Source: ECLAC, on the basis of general equilibrium model calibrated for Central America with the GTAP
database 8. Note: The time for trading, calculated as the average required to export and import, was
obtained from the online World Bank database (Doing Business).
Central America:
changes in GDP, welfare, trade and employment
Central Americaa: expected effects on production, trade, welfare and
employment
(Change from baseline scenario)
Variable
Variable
GDP
Welfare (Million-US$)
Welfare/GDP
Exports
Imports
Total employment
Non skilled labour
Very ambitious
ambitious
Very
Scenario
3.0%
US$4.158 MM
3.7%
11.9%
11.9%
4.2%
6.0%
Less Ambitious
Less
Ambitious
Scenario
Scenario
1.4%
US$1.829 MM
1.7%
4.2%
3.7%
1.6%
2.3%
Source: ECLAC, on the basis of general equilibrium model calibrated for Central America with the GTAP
database 8 aCosta Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua and Panama.
Central America:
changes under a very ambitious scenario
Central America, very ambitious TFP: expected effects, by country, on
production, trade, welfare and employment
(Change from baseline scenario)
Variable
Variable
GDP (Change)
Welfare (M-US$)
(% GDP)
Exports (Change)
Imports (Change)
Total Employ (Change)
Non Skilled Labour
Costa
Costa
Rica
Rica
1.8
673
2.8
5.5
8.0
2.9
4.3
El El
Guatemala
GuatemalaHonduras
NicaraguaPanama
Honduras Nicaragua
Panama
Salvador
Salvador
3.1
781
4.4
23.6
18.7
5.4
7.3
3.0
1,237
4.3
13.5
14.9
4.5
6.3
5.2
639
5.7
24.8
17.3
6.8
10.3
12.0
588
11.0
26.5
18.1
12.2
16.4
Source: ECLAC, on the basis of general equilibrium model calibrated for Central America with the GTAP
database 8
0.5
59
0.3
3.3
1.6
0.6
0.9
Central America:
changes under a less ambitious scenario
Central America, less ambitious TFP: Expected effects, by country, on production, trade,
welfare and employment
(Change from baseline scenario)
Variable
Variable
Costa
Costa
Rica
Rica
El
Guatemala
Guatemala
El
Salvador
Salvador
Honduras
Honduras
Nicaragua Panama
Nicaragua
Panama
GDP (% Change)
0.8
1.4
1.3
2.3
6.1
0.3
Welfare (M-US$)
281
335
537
289
338
50
1.2
1,9
1,9
2.6
6.3
0.3
Exports ((% Change)
1.8
8.2
4.4
7.0
6.8
1.3
Imports ((% Change)
2.7
6.7
5.3
5.5
8.1
0.7
Total Employ (% Change)
1.1
1.9
1.7
2.6
5.3
0.3
1.6
2.6
2.4
3.9
7.2
0.5
(% GDP)
Non Skilled Labour
Source: ECLAC, on the basis of general equilibrium model calibrated for Central America with the GTAP
database 8
Costa Rica:
changes under both scenarios
Costa Rica, expected changes in production , welfare, trade and
employment under the simulated scenarios (Changes from baseline model)
Main Variables
Main variables
Production
Welfare/PIB
Exports
Impors
Tax collection (only ST and ST)/PIB
Labor
Non skilled labour
Very
ambitious Less
Less ambitious
Ambitious
Very
ambitious
scenario
scenario
Scenario
Scenario
1.8%
2.8%
5.5%
8.0%
0.5%*
2.9%
4.3%
Source: ECLAC, Based on results of a CGE model calibrated based GTAP
ST = Specifit Tax; VAT= Value Added Tax.
*Very ambitious scenario: US$ 232 MM; less ambitious scenario: US$ 85 MM
0.8%
1.2%
1.8%
2.7%
0.2%*
1.1%
1.6%
Main conclusions
The ad valorem
equivalent
in Central America is
A Trade Facilitation platform that reduced
the time of trade (Xs and Ms) has
a positive impact in Central America on:
The more ambitious the program,
the greater the expected effect, and
the sooner the benefits to take place
Increase in GDP
(3% in very ambitious
scenario; 1.4% in less
ambitious scenario)
Increase in
welfare
(US$ 4.158 MM in very
Ambitious scenario;
US$ 1.829 MM
in less ambitious
scenario)
Exports
Imports
(11.9% in very ambitious
scenario; 4.2% in
less ambitious scenario)
(11.9% in very ambitious
scenario; 3.7% in less
ambitious scenario)
For Costa Rica
alone, fiscal
Revenue would
increase
(US$ 232 MM in very
Ambitious scenario
; US$ 85 MM in less
ambitious scenario)
Muchas Gracias
Jhon Fonseca
Viceminister of Foreign Trade