Transcript 20 ans CCIM Potocnikx

21ST CENTURY
TRANSFORMATION
CCIEP – 20 YEARS
Janez Potočnik
Co-Chair International Resource Panel – UNEP
Brussels, April 27rd, 2015
IRP
INTERNATIONAL
RESOURCE PANEL
INTERNATIONAL POLICY NEEDS A SCIENCE BASE
The international resource
panel was created in 2007
as
a
science-policy
interface in responding to
economic
growth,
escalating use of natural
resources and deteriorating
environment and climate
change.
Climate Change
Biodiversity Loss
Hazardous Substances
Ozone Depletion
Resource Efficiency
IPCC
IPBES
Assessments under
the Basel
Convention
Montreal Protocol’s
Scientific
Assessments
International
Resource Panel
IRP, IPCC, IPBES
AND SCIENCE – POLICY
INTERFACE
• INTERNATIONAL BY NATURE AND BY DEFINITION
• TRANS-DISCIPLINARY
• POLICY RELEVANT BUT NOT POLICY PRESCRIPTIVE
• GO FOR A BALANCE OF EVIDENCE APPROACH
CREATE A CRITICAL MASS OF SCIENTIFIC KNOWLEDGE ADVISE THAT POLICY MAKERS CAN NOT IGNORE
* FROM INDIVIDUAL RESOURCES TO
SYSTEMS THINKING
INDIVIDUAL RESOURCES
SYSTEMS THINKING
Resource Pricing
and Values
Transition
Mechanisms
Supply and Demand,
Life Cycle/ Value Chain
Human Behaviour
Food
Land & Soil
Plastics
Biobased
Materials
Integrated
Scenario
Analysis
Global Material
Flows and
Resource
Productivity
Direct and
embodied
resources in
traded goods
Metals and
Minerals
Water
Energy
Perspectives
Environmental
Impacts
Sustainable
Food Systems
Legend:
Resources
Materials
Resource use in
cities
WORLD
IN WHICH WE
LIVE
* WORLD IN WHICH WE LIVE …
Source: Global Footprint Network, 2012; UNDP, 2014a
* SUSTAINABLE, CIRCULAR, GREEN,
RESOURCE EFFICIENT …
• WHAT WE ACTUALLY TALK ABOUT
• SUSTAINABILITY – ECONOMIC, SOCIAL,
ENVIRONMENTAL …
• ECONOMY IS IN DENIAL OF PHYSICAL LAWS
* FACTS WE TRY TO IGNORE …
• POPULATION GROWTH
• PER CAPITA CONSUMPTION GROWTH
• THE DOUBLING STORY …
• LIMITED RESOURCES - FRESH WATER, OCEANS, LAND AND SOIL,
CLEAN AIR, RAW MATERIALS, BIODIVERSITY, ECOSYSTEMS, FUEL …
• TODAY 60% OF ECOSYSTEMS DEGRADED OR USED
UNSUSTAINABLY
*
ECONOMIC ARGUMENTS FOR CHANGE (EU)
• RESOURCE INTENSIVE MODEL OF PRODUCTION
AND LOCK-INS
• CHANGE OF RESOURCE PRICE TRENDS AND
INCREASED PRICE VOLATILITY
A HUNDRED YEARS OF DECLINE OF RESOURCE PRICES
RESOURCE PRICES ON THE RISE DESPITE RECENT TRENDS
*
ECONOMIC ARGUMENTS FOR CHANGE (EU)
• RESOURCE INTENSIVE MODEL OF PRODUCTION
AND LOCK-INS
• CHANGE OF RESOURCE PRICE TRENDS AND
INCREASED PRICE VOLATILITY
• COST STRUCTURE OF MANUFACTURING SECTOR
COST STRUCTURE IN THE MANUFACTURING INDUSTRY 2011
VDI GERMAN AGENCY FOR MATERIAL EFFICIENCY
Taxes other
than on income
3%
Interests
1%
Others
(Depreceation,
Lease, etc)
16%
Contract
work Energy
Trade goods
2%
2%
11%
Material
47%
Labour
18%
SHARE OF COSTS IN THE MANUFACTURING SECTOR 1993-2011
VDI GERMAN AGENCY FOR MATERIAL EFFICIENCY
50
% SHARE OF TOTAL COST
45
40
35
30
Material Costs
Labour Costs
Energy Costs
25
20
15
10
5
0
1993
1996
1999
2002
2005
2008
2011
*
ECONOMIC ARGUMENTS FOR CHANGE (EU)
• RESOURCE INTENSIVE MODEL OF PRODUCTION
AND LOCK-INS
• CHANGE OF RESOURCE PRICE TRENDS AND
INCREASED PRICE VOLATILITY
• COST STRUCTURE OF MANUFACTURING SECTOR
• IMPORT DEPENDENCY
CIRCULAR
ECONOMY
* INEFFICIENCES AROUND US
• TURNING COAL INTO LIGHT IS STILL ONLY 3% EFFICIENT
• ONLY 15% OF THE ENERGY WE PUT IN OUR PETROL TANK IS
USED TO MOVE OUR CAR DOWN THE ROAD
• 80% OF WHAT WE PRODUCE IS USED ONCE AND DISCARDED
• ONLY 1% OF THE VALUABLE RARE EARTHS THAT WE USE IN
PRODUCTS ARE RECYCLED AT THE END OF PRODUCTS LIFE
• 80% OF RESOURCES ARE USED BY 20% OF EARTH
POPULATION
REMANUFACTURING AND THE CIRCULAR ECONOMY
BEFORE
REMANUFACTURING
AFTER
REMANUFACTURING
Remanufacturing is a comprehensive and
rigorous industrial process by which a
previously sold, worn, or non-functional
product or component is returned to a “likenew” or “better-than-new” condition.
* BENEFITS OF REMANUFACTURING
CASE STUDY: CYLINDER HEAD
•
•
•
•
•
GHG EMISSIONS:
WATER USE:
ENERGY USE:
MATERIAL USE:
LANDFILL SPACE:
50% LESS
90% LESS
80% LESS
99% LESS
99% LESS
MOBILE PHONE ... OUR POCKET PARTNER
• WEDDING RING: 10 TONNES OF GOLD ORE
10 KILOS OF MOBILE PHONES
• LESS THAN 10% RECYCLED
• IN EU MORE THAN 100 MIO EACH YEAR IN THE DRAWERS
2.4 TONNES OF GOLD
25 TONNES OF SILVER
1 TONNE OF PALLADIUM
900 TONNES OF COPPER
#
Group
#
Period
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
END OF LIFE RECYCLING RATE (GLOBAL) FOR 62 METALS
1
2
UNEP EVALUATION JANUARY, 2010
1
1
H
He
18
Period
1
2
H
3
2
Li
4
Be3
5
B
6
C5
7
N6
8
O7
3
11
3
Na
12
11
Mg
Na
13
Al
14
13
Si
Al
4
19
4
K
2019 2120 2221 23
22
CaK ScCa TiSc VTi
30
29
Zn
Cu
31
30
Ga
Zn
5
37
5
Rb
3837 3938 4039 41
40 42
41 43
42 44
43 45
44 46
45 47
46 48
47
SrRb Y Sr ZrY Nb
Zr Mo
Nb Tc
Mo Ru
Tc Rh
Ru Pd
Rh Ag
Pd Cd
Ag
6
6
55
Cs
5655 * 56 72 *
BaCs Ba Hf
7
7
87
Fr
** 105
104 106
105 107
106 108
107 109
108 110
109 111
110 112
111 113
112 114
113 115
114 116
115 (117)
116 (117)
8887 **88104
118
Fr
Ra
Rf
Db
Sg
Bh
Hs
Mt
Ds
Rg
Uub
Uut
Uuq
Uup
Uuh
Ra
Rf
Db
Sg
Bh
Hs
Mt
Ds
Rg Uub Uut Uuq Uup Uuh (Uus) (Uus)
Uuo
4
Be
Li
12
Mg
72
73
Hf
Ta
* Lanthanides
57
58
** Actinides
89
90
* Lanthanides
** Actinides
>50%
24
23 25
24
CrV Mn
Cr
26
25 27
26
Fe
Mn Co
Fe
28
27 29
28
Ni
Co Cu
Ni
73 75
74 76
75 77
76 78
77 79
78
74
Ta Re
W Os
Re Ir
Os PtIr Au
Pt
W
59
60
91
92
79
80
Au
Hg
61
62
63
64
65
93
94
95
96
97
N
9
8
F
O
10
9
Ne
F
10
Ne
15
14
P
Si
16
15
SP
17
16
Cl
S
18
17
Ar
Cl
18
Ar
32
31
Ge
Ga
33
32
As
Ge
34
33
Se
As
35
34
Br
Se
36
35
Kr
Br
36
Kr
49
48
In
Cd
50
49
Sn
In
51
50
Sb
Sn
52
51
Te
Sb
53
52
I
Te
54
53
Xe
I
54
Xe
80
81
Hg
Tl
81
82
Tl
Pb
82
83
Pb
Bi
83
84
Bi
Po
84
85
Po
At
85
86
At
Rn
86
Rn
66
B
67
68
67
Dy
Ho
89
Ac
90Ac 91
Th
Th
Pa
99
Cf 100
Es 101
Fm 102
Md
Es
Fm
Md
No
>25-50%
>10-25%
98
99
1-10%
69
Er
Tm
69
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
La Ce
Pr
Nd
Pm Sm
Eu
Gd
Tb
Ce
Pr
Nd Pm Sm Eu
Gd
Tb
Dy
94
Np 95
Pu 96
Am 97
Cm 98
Bk
Pu Am Cm Bk
Cf
68
Ho
Er
C
57
La
92
Pa 93
U
U
Np
2
He
100
70
Tm
Yb
101
70
71
Lu
102
103
Lr
71
Yb
Lu
103
No
Lr
<1%
118
Uuo
???
* CAR ... OUR DAILY FRIEND
NOT JUST INCREMENTAL EFFICIENCY GAINS...
NOR NEW TECHNOLOGIES ONLY ...
SYSTEM CHANGE
Copyright: Tesla
*
ROLE OF THE MARKETS:
MARKETS CANNOT ENSURE EFFICIENCY IN THE
ALLOCATION AND USE OF RESOURCES …
•
IF PRICES DO NOT REFLECT THE TRUE VALUE AND COSTS OF
RESOURCES,
•
•
IF REWARDS TO CAPITAL ARE DISPROPORTIONATE TO OTHER INPUTS,
•
IF …
IF MANAGERS ON ANNUAL CONTRACTS ARE INDUCED TO MAKE
SHORT TERM INVESTMENT DECISIONS OVERLY INFLUENCED BY
BONUSES BASED ON SHORT TERM SHARE PRICE,
*
MARKETS AND REGULATION
•
•
•
•
INNOVATION (INCENTIVES)
•
YES ECO INDUSTRIES ARE IMPORTANT, BUT
THE WHOLE ECONOMY HAS TO CHANGE
PRODUCTS (DESIGN)
CONSUMERS (BEHAVIOUR)
BUSINESS MODELS
INTERNATIONAL
DEVELOPMENTS
* INTERNATIONAL
DEVELOPMENTS
•
SDGs AND POST 2015 AGENDA – SYSTEMIC TRANSFORMATION –
NEW GLOBAL AGREEMENT BASED ON “NEW NORMAL”
POVERTY ERADICATION AND SUSTAINABILITY (NEW YORK 2015)
•
•
•
•
•
RIO+20: AGREEMENT ON SDG’s
UN PROCESS : FROM MDG’s TO SDG’s AND POST-2015 AGENDA
OWG REPORT: 17 GOALS AND 169 TARGETS + INDICATORS
MEANS OF IMPLEMENTATION (FUNDING, GOVERNANCE,
REPORTING)
CLIMATE/ENERGY (USA AND CHINA, PARIS 2015)
EUROPEAN
UNION
*
AND EUROPEAN UNION ...
•
RESPONDING TO FINANCIAL CRISIS IS
NECESSARY, BUT NOT SUFFICIENT
FOR ADDRESSING THE PROBLEMS
OF GLOBALISATION AND ALSO
IMPROVING COMPETITIVENES
•
OUR ANSWERS ARE NOT ALWAYS
APPROPRIATE (ENERGY PRICE OR
ENERGY EFFICIENCY)
•
INTERNATIONAL CREDIBILITY CAN
ONLY BE GAINED BY ADEQUATE
DOMESTIC POLICIES
Circular Economy Communication
Consumers
Business
Buildings
Marine
Litter
target
Res.Eff.
Target
Waste
Food
Progress
Report on
Resource
Efficiency
Roadmap
Sustainable
Buildings
Comm
Green
Entrepreneurship
Action Plan
3 waste legislative
proposals
(inc. revised targets)
Waste Impact
Assessment
Waste Fitness
Check SWD
EREP
Recommend
ations
Analyses
of
Impacts
Green
Employment
Comm
Sustainable
Food
Comm
Food
Impact
Assessment
2030 CIRCULAR ECONOMY TARGETS
MUNICIPAL WASTE
FOOD
WASTE
(2025 -30%)
PREVENTION
PACKEGING (80%)
60% PLASTIC
(+REVIEW)
80% WOOD
90% PLASTIC
GLASS
PAPER
REUSE & RECYCLING
(INCL COMPOST)
MIN 70%
INCINERATION
ECODESIGN
PRODUCER
RESPONSIBILITY
SEPARATE
COLLECTION
LANDFILL
ZERO RECYCLABLES OR BIODEGRADABLE WASTE BY 2025 (<25%)
PHASE OUT BY 2030 (=<5%)
MARINE LITTER
(2020 -30%)
HEADLINE TARGET
GDP/RAW MATERIAL
CONSUMPTION
DASHBOARD
INDICATOR
LAND
INDICATOR
WATER
INDICATOR
GHG
INDICATOR
MATERIALS
ANNUAL RESOURCE EFFICIENCY SCOREBOARD
(EUROSTAT, SINCE 2013)
FROM
GROWTH&JOBS
TO
JOBS&GROWTH
NO RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN GDP GROWTH AND UNEMPLOYMENT IN MEDIUM TERM
Source: IDDRI Working paper 2014, Chancel. L
The Economist: December, 2014
* TO CONCLUDE …
st
21 CENTURY
FROM FRAGILITY TO SUSTAINABILITY
INCREASED RESPONSIBILTY
LEARN FROM NATURE
ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION
IS NOT AN OBSTACLE TO
ECONOMIC GROWTH
* IT IS JUST THE OPPOSITE
ECO INNOVATION AND COMPETITIVENESS
FINLAND, GERMANY AND SWEDEN ARE HIGHLY COMPETITIVE, AND
LEADERS IN ECO-INNOVATION
Global Competitiveness Index 2013-2014
Eco-Innovation Index 2012
ENVIRONMENTAL REGULATIONS MAY NOT COST AS
MUCH AS THOUGHT
The Economist: January 3rd, 2015
*
MAIN OBSTACLES FOR CHANGE ...
HUMAN BEHAVIOUR - WHY WE ACT AT HOME IN A DIFFERENT WAY THAN WE DO
IN OUR PUBLIC LIFE?
LACK OF LONG TERM CONSISTENCY – HOW TO STRENGHTEN LONG TERM
STRATEGIC THINKING AND POLICY MAKING AND REPLACE PREVAILING SHORT
TERM LOGIC?
FOCUS ON FINANCIAL SIDE OF ECONOMY - BUDGETARY DEFFICIT VERSUS THE
STRUCTURE, COMPARISON COMPANY - COUNTRY
PROTECTING STATUS QUO - HOW TO BREAK LOCK-INS AND THE LOGIC OF
DEFENDING THE LOWEST COMMON DENOMINATOR APPROACH?
GOVERNENCE AND LACK OF IMPLEMENTATION: HOW TO TRANSLATE
COMMITMENTS FROM POLITICAL STATEMENTS TO A DAILY REALITY ?
SILOS MENTALITY - HOW TO MAKE PEOPLE UNDERSTAND THAT COOPERATION
IS THE BEST WAY FOR ALL OF THEM TO WIN?
*CHANGE
WE HAVE TO FIX A BROKEN
COMPASS
(PAVAN SUKHDEV)
UNAVOIDABLE
SCIENCE
PROTECTING ENVIRONMENT AND HUMAN HEALTH WILL NOT BE
POSSIBLE WITHOUT FUNDAMENTALLY CHANGING OUR ECONOMIC
BEHAVIOUR - WITHOUT GOING INTO THE ROOTS OF ECONOMIC THEORY
ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT WILL NOT BE POSSIBLE WITHOUT
RESPECTING THE LIMITS OF THE PLANET
ECOLOGY
ECONOMY
OIKOS (HOME)
ENVIRONMENT
ECONOMY
*THANK YOU
www.unep.org⁄resourcepanel