Transcript Environmental history I: The earth system prior to human

Key debates in climate, poverty and development
Climate, environment and
growth:
Are there ways out of the
mess?
Arild Vatn
The present development path
• After WWII we observe economic growth at an average level
between 2,5 and 3 % per year globally. A wanted development,
taking many out of poverty. Made some incredibly rich.
• We also observe increased pressure on environmental resources
– Climate change  global temperature increases by 2100 in the
range of 2-5 C
– Loss of species at a rate of 100-1000 times of what is normal
– In Europe it is estimated that about 100.000 new chemicals are
released into the environment. We know (some of) the effects of
about 1 %...
• These issues are linked through the material underpinning of
economic growth
Temperature change
Carbon and economic development
4
We see no absolute ‘de-coupling’
Jackson (2009)
From energy use to emissions
USA
Norway
China
India
Growth and ‘happiness’
Why does the economy of the rich still grow?
• The above picture raises the question: If economic expansion
threatens the environment, but deliver less and less increase in
welfare, why not stop growing the economy in rich countries?
• The unpleasant answer may be: We cannot stop. Present
institutions demand growth to function
– Low or zero growth will force recessions/instability due to
increased uncertainty for investments – e.g., the financial crisis
– The functioning of the political system demands growth to e.g.,
ease redistribution
– The consumption ‘tread-mill’
– Present policies to reduce environmental impacts are caught in different types of lock-ins too: Investment lock-ins; Interest lock-ins
• So sustainable development will demand institutions that can
function well with low(er) growth
• Stabilizing consumption levels in the rich part of the world to
give room for growth in developing countries
It seems OK?
 Natural systems are characterized with
quite some ‘power of resistance’
 We have, however, a political-economic
system directed at growth and at ex post
(after the fact) corrections of environmental problems
 Instead of appropriate action, we are
consuming the resilience of natural systems
– pushing us closer to ‘tipping-points’
 Strategies:
 Do not force the system against its limits
– precaution/reducing the level of risk
 Establish systems that can offer ‘early
warnings’ and actions not captured by
vested interests
Sketching an alternative
• The future will demand more emphasis on political
decisions and less emphasis on ‘self correcting’ markets
• Will demand increased emphasis on ex ante (‘before the
fact’) regulations of resource use. For example:
– Restricted withdrawals of resources – specifically fossil fuels
– Turning the burden of proof – prior verification that a production is
environmentally acceptable
– Infrastructure development  low carbon energy and transport
• Create the socially and environmentally conscious firm
– ’Corporate social responsibility’ is not sufficient
– Instituting responsibility as a motivation for production
• Non-profit firms; cooperatives
• Community owned firms
• Triple bottom line with ownership also to the social and
environmental dimensions
• Limits and changed motivations are thought to be
mutually reinforcing