Transcript Diapositiva 1

XXII° Edizione
Nuovo sviluppo industriale e politiche di sistema
8-10 Ottobre 2012, Villa Medicea di Artimino
Gli indici di sviluppo locale umano applicati ai
territori toscani
Mario Biggeri
Dipartimento di Scienze per l'Economia e per l'Impresa, Università di Firenze
Centro interuniversitario di Economia Applicata alle Politiche per l’Industria,
lo Sviluppo locale e l'Internazionalizzazione (c.MET05)
con il contributo di Marco Bellandi, Andrea Ferrannini e Vincenzo Mauro
Introduction
- We present a statistical-economic approach based on
the integration between the literature on local
development and the human development perspective.
- This integration focuses on local opportunities and it
applies an innovative interpretative framework to subregional development paths of Tuscany provinces which
jointly analyses the economic and the social dimensions
at local level.
Premise 1
- Italian literature on the social dimension of local
systems (Bacci, Bagnasco, Becattini, Brusco, Dei Ottati,
Trigilia, …)
- “Multiple paths of local development” (Bellandi and
Sforzi, 2003 in Becattini, Bellandi, Dei Ottati and Sforzi,
From Industrial Districts to Local Development)
Premise 2
- Sustainable Human Development (Amartya Sen, 1999)
- Capability approach as an opportunity-based theory
- GDP vs multidimensionality, Human Development Index
(HDI)
- Integration among micro-meso-macro levels
 This perspective could bring to important results in terms
of analysis and of policy implications from a social and
economic point of view and development processes at the
local level.
Premise 3
- Inappropriateness of unique mono-dimensional indicator
- Going beyond the GDP (Stiglitz – Sen – Fitoussi
Commission, 2009)
- Need to take into account synergies and complementarities
between economic and social dimensions
Objective
Operationalization of the Sustainable Human
Development paradigm at local level and empirical
application to the case of Tuscany provinces
Will follow:
- Interpretative framework on multiple paths of local
development
- Methodology of analysis and data
- Empirical results regarding Tuscany region provinces
Interpretative framework on
multiple paths of local development
Sustainable Human Development (SHD)
The dynamic synergy between economic opportunities
and social opportunities and how it shapes SHD
trajectories.
- The social-environmental dimension SD
The result at aggregate local level of different components
determining the social outcomes in terms of Basic Social
Services, social integration and participation and
environmental protection.
- The economic dimension ED
The result at aggregate level of different components
which determine the economic opportunity/efficiency at
local level.
Interpretative framework
The high road to Sustainable Human Development at local level
Source: Mehrotra and Biggeri (2007: 368)
Methodology of analysis and data
Bi-dimensional index
The idea is to represent the units and try to observe their
path or shift over time
 Need for two indexes or a bi-dimensional index that
can describe both situations
Many approaches are possible to describe both social and
economic components: most of them have to face a step
where the variables available are aggregated into a
(possibly single) value.
Geometric interpretation
The index is one minus the quadratic
mean of diff. from max (i.e. 1)
 the synergic evolutionary SHD
paths of the unit of analysis
BRICS (1990-2005)
Italy, US, Netherlands (1990-2005)
Italy, US, Netherlands (1990-2005)
Empirical results regarding
Tuscany region provinces
Local development paths:
Tuscany region provinces
- Rationales for unit of analysis and data base
- Characteristics of the analysis:
• Dynamic (1998-2010): medium-term analysis with 4years intervals
• Multidimensional: economic and social dimensions
with 5 sub-dimensions each
Medium-term analysis
- 1998
- 2002
- 2006
- 2010 (or most recent data: 2008-2009)
 4-years intervals are needed to observe significant
movements on Local Human Development
trajectories
Multidimensional analysis
Economic Dimension
(n° indicators)
Economic opportunities (4)
Social Dimension
(n° indicators)
Environment opportunities (2)
Employment opportunities (3)
Access to health services
opportunities (3)
Education opportunities (3)
Credit opportunities (4)
Entrepreneurship opportunities Participation and social capital
(3)
opportunities (6)
Investments opportunities (2)
Equal opportunities (8)
Main difficulties in data collection
- Missing data in panel series
e.g. Institutional structures and processes (e.g. start up new
enterprises, corruption, …); GDP per capita corrected by
inequality; Renewable energy; Job-training for persons with
disability.
- Change in some statistical indicators
- Poor territorial disaggregation of data (province level)
Empirical results:
Tuscany Region provinces
Framework: Results (1)
0.55
0.50
0.45
Economic dimension
0.60
AR
FI
GR
0.40
1998
0.35
LI
0.30
1998
1998
1998
1998
0.25
LU
Social dimension
0.20
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
0.40
0.45
0.50
0.55
0.60
Framework: Results (2)
0.60
0.50
0.45
MC
Economic dimension
0.55
PI
1998
PT
0.40
1998
0.35
1998
1998
PO
0.30
0.25
SI
Social dimension
1998
0.20
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
0.40
0.45
0.50
0.55
0.60
ED disaggregation (1)
0.65
0.55
0.50
0.45
0.40
0.35
0.30
AR
Entrepreneurship and investments
0.60
FI
GR
1998
1998
1998
LI
1998
0.25
0.20
1998
0.15
0.10
0.10
LU
Wealth, employment and credit
0.15
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
0.40
0.45
0.50
0.55
0.60
0.65
ED disaggregation (2)
0.65
0.60
0.50
0.45
0.40
0.35
0.30
Entrepreneurship and investments
0.55
MC
PI
PT
PO
0.25
0.20
0.15
0.10
0.10
SI
Wealth, employment and credit
0.15
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
0.40
0.45
0.50
0.55
0.60
0.65
SD disaggregation (1)
0.60
0.55
0.50
0.45
0.40
0.35
0.30
0.25
0.20
Education, participation and equal opportunities
0.65
AR
FI
1998
1998
GR
1998
1998
1998
LI
0.15
0.10
0.10
LU
Environment and health
0.15
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
0.40
0.45
0.50
0.55
0.60
0.65
SD disaggregation (2)
0.60
0.55
0.50
0.45
0.40
0.35
0.30
0.25
0.20
Education, participation and equal opportunities
0.65
MC
PI
1998
PT
1998
1998
1998
1998
PO
0.15
0.10
0.10
SI
Environment and health
0.15
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
0.40
0.45
0.50
0.55
0.60
0.65
Main results (a)
- Most units follow routes quite close to a synergic
pattern in Tuscany during the first period
- Similar trajectory 1998-2002 except for Livorno and
Massa-Carrara (decline ED)
- Impact of recent financial crisis: immediate dramatic
decline in SD in all provinces
- ED seems to diminish sensitively its level
Main results (b)
- The sensitivity analysis confirmed our results (not
driven by a unique group of variables).
- The disaggregate analysis in the ED indicates a more
diffused attention towards variables affecting wealth,
employment and credit opportunities.
- The disaggregate analysis in the SD indicates a general
tendency towards a more synergistic path before the
crisis.
- The economic and social dimensions interactions
Main conclusions
- Relevance of changing perspective and objective with
an integrated framework focused on ED-SD synergies
- Benefit of path analysis with an evolutionary mediumterm view:
• Replicable to other case studies
• Easy to be continuously updated
• Policy implications
Next research steps
- Improving data selection and collection
- On-going discussion on dimensions, opportunities
and variables
- Application to different regions and to different unit
of analysis (e.g. local development systems and/or
local labour systems)
- Systematic cross-validation with other reports and
empirical analyses
Thank you !
Comments are more than welcome
We are grateful to Marco Bellucci and Annalisa
Caloffi for their contribution in this research
Appendix II: Selected variables for Tuscany provinces (1)
Economic dimension
Wealth
GDP per capita
Turn-over of local firms
Bank savings per capita
Density of firms
Employment rate
Freedom from CIG hours
per worker
Credit
Industrial value-added per
worker
Freedom from Debt per
capita
Financial autonomy
Employment
Entrepreneurship
Bank branches per capita
Subsidized credit per
capita
ATM per squared km
Freedom from Accounts
uncollectible
Investments
Hi-Tech firms
Provincial capital account
expenditures
Appendix II: Selected variables for Tuscany provinces (2)
Social dimension
Environment
Education
Provincial expenditure for
environmental protection
Coverage of mammography
prevention
“Legambiente” Ecosystem Index
Health workers per capita
Graduates per capita
Freedom from Work injuries
Provincial expenditures for
professional education
Participation
and social
capital
Health
Equal
opportunities
<35 in provincial
administration
Coverage of professional education
courses
Women in provincial
administration
Teachers per pupil
Female unemployment
Blood donations per capita
Youth unemployment
Waste recycling
Waiting list for kindergarten
Newspapers diffusion
Learning support teachers
Electoral participation
Women in local firms
N° of volunteering organizations
<30 in local firms
Freedom from Juvenile reports
Foreign entrepreneurship
Classic perspective: GDP per capita
35,000
AR
FI
30,000
GR
LI
25,000
LU
MC
20,000
PI
PO
15,000
PT
SI
10,000
1998
2002
2006
Source: Sole24Ore and ISTAT
2010