Transcript ccl_marea-slide-preso(9-29

The Best Solution to
Global Warming
Randy Gyory & Tom Pritchett
What have you heard about the
impacts of global warming?
What is Global Warming
•The warming of the whole Earth
•Includes much more than air
temperatures
•Earth receiving more energy than it
releases
Earth’s Global Energy Budget; Kevin E. Trenberth, John T. Fasullo, and Jeffrey Kiehl; Bull Amer. Met Soc., 2009, 90(3), 311
Where Does This Excess Energy Go
•> 90% Warming of Oceans
•Air Temperatures
•Melting Polar Ice Sheets
•Melting Glaciers
•Melting Permafrost
Ocean heat content change above 2,000 m depth
“Deep-ocean contribution to sea level and energy budget not detectable over the past decade”, W. Llovel, J. K. Willis, F. W.
Landerer & I. Fukumori ; Nature Climate Change 4, 1031–1035 (2014)
Has the Earth’s Climate
Varied in the Past - Yes
•Variations in the Amount of Radiation Received by the
Earth
•Variations in the Amount of Radiation Actually
Absorbed by the Earth (versus reflected directly back
into space)
•Variations in the Manner by Which the Energy of the
Sun is Transported from One Part of the Globe to
Another
Climate Change’s Ugly Sister –
Ocean Acidification
CO2 and Carbonate Chemistry
Ocean pH change
The Future Oceans – Warming Up, Rising High, Turning Sour, German Advisory Council on Global Change, March 2006
Some Observed Impacts
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More Extreme Weather
More Extreme Droughts
Longer Fire Seasons
Rising Sea Levels
Oyster Farming in Pacific NW
Changes in Pest Populations
Poleward Shifts in Animal Populations
Coral Die-Offs
Shifting of Specie Distributions at the Bottom of Ocean
Food Chain
Billion Dollar Disaster Event by Type
https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/billions/time-series; acecssed 09/25/15
Ice sheets that
are no longer
grounded
Ice sheets that are
melting
and, if not already
ungrounded,
will become so in near
future
Potential Increase in Sea Levels
What We Need to Avoid
•Acceleration of Rates of Temperature and Sea Level Rise
•Limit the Ultimate Level of Sea Level Rises
•Limit the Ultimate Extremes Our Climate Will Reach
•Avoid Climate Feedback Mechanisms that Throw Out Our Ability to Predict
Impacts
•Complete Collapses of Major Oceanic Ecosystems
•Other such Impacts
What is the government doing?
“So if there is
one thing I
would like to
see, it’d be for
us to be able
to price the
cost of carbon
emissions”
Clean Power Plan vs Carbon Fee & Dividend
•EPA regulations would impose these costs while only achieving a fraction of the emissions reductions that
CF&D would achieve
•The EPA rules are designed to reduce emissions from power plants by 30% below 2005 levels by the year
2030
•CF&D would achieve a 90% reduction below 2005 levels in the power sector by 2030
Carbon Fee & Dividend Proposal
What Will Carbon Fee and Dividend Do?
1. Add the social cost of carbon-based fossil fuels to the price
consumers pay.
2. 90% reduction in 1990 emissions by 2050
3. Grow jobs and GDP without growing government one bit.
4. Recruit global participation.
In a fully efficient price system, the
price we pay for a product would
reflect the full costs of producing and
using it, including the costs to the
environment
.
Fee
●Initial fee of $15/ton on the CO2 content of fossil
fuels
●Steadily escalating $10/ton/year until total US CO2
emissions have been reduced to 10% of carbon
emissions in 1990.
●Imposed upstream at the point of
extraction/production/border and collected upon entry
into the economy.
●Upstream is administratively easier and cheaper
than downstream.
Dividend
• 100% of the revenue from the carbon fee is held in a Carbon
Fee Trust Fund.
• Returned directly to households as a monthly dividend .
• Up to two adults (each a full share) and two children (each a
1/2 share). “Share” is the same for everybody.
• 2/3 of households will not see net increase in costs (includes
direct fuel costs and pass-through costs). Some will have a
net gain.
Border Adjustment
●To ensure that US goods remain competitive at
home and abroad, and prevent “leakage” of US
companies to jurisdictions without carbon fees.
●“Carbon fee equivalent” tariffs charged for goods
entering US.
●“Carbon fee equivalent” rebates given to US
exporters to reduce price of US goods when going to
countries without a comparable carbon fee.
Carbon Fee and Dividend
Economists & Conservatives Agree
“It’s not a tax if the
government doesn’t
keep the money”
George Shultz,
Secretary of
State to Reagan
“... tax those things
we would like to
have less of”
Gregory Mankiw,
Harvard Professor
& economic advisor
to George W. Bush
How Will CFD Impact the Economy?
Nationwide study by
Regional Economic
Models, Inc (REMI)
Millions of new jobs
Jobs
Regional Economic Modeling Inc
REMI: Rapid US Emission Reductions
REMI: Household Refunds Increase
Regional Economic
Modeling Inc
$400 per month per household
REMI: 225,000 Lives Saved
Regional Economic
Modeling Inc
Due to avoided air pollution
REMI: Report Summary
Employment ● 2 million more jobs
Climate
Fiscal
● Reduces carbon dioxide
● Increases household incomes
Humanitarian ● Saves Lives
Economic
● $1.3 trillion more GDP
No economic case against Carbon Fee
We Know the Solution
Carbon Fee & Dividend Proposal
●Carbon Fee and Dividend is the policy proposal created by Citizens’ Climate Lobby (CCL)
to account for the costs of burning carbon-based fuels. It’s the policy that climate scientists
and economists alike say is the best first-step to reduce the likelihood of catastrophic climate
change from global warming.
● Our carbon fee and dividend proposal [1] works like this:
● A fee is placed on fossil fuels at the source (well, mine, port of entry). This fee starts at $15 per ton
of CO2 emitted, and increases steadily each year by $10.
● All of the money collected is returned to American households on an equal basis. Under this plan
about 2/3 of all households would break even or receive more in their dividend checks than they
would pay in higher prices due to the fee, thereby protecting the poor and middle class [2].
● A border tariff adjustment on goods imported from or exported to countries without an equivalent
price on carbon. This adjustment would both discourage businesses from relocating to where they
can emit more CO2 and encourage other nations to adopt an equivalent price on carbon.
● A predictably increasing carbon price will send a clear market signal which will unleash
entrepreneurs and investors in the new clean-energy economy.
Citizens’ Climate Lobby (CCL)
● Founded in 2007
● 17,000 members
Singular Mission
Lobby Congress to pass
Carbon Fee and Dividend
● 267 chapters
Chapters in formation
VIDEO http://tiny.cc/SpeakUp4Climate
CCL: Methodology
● Focus on solutions
● Instill hope
● Educate constituents
● Develop strong
respectful relationships
with elected officials
VIDEO http://tiny.cc/CCL_2014
Thank You For Attending This Evening
For more information on the Citizens Climate Lobby:
www.CitizensClimateLobby.org