Transcript Jana Poljak Zagreb, 22 May 2012

Preparation of National Reform
Programmes in view of Europe 2020
Strategy and enhanced
macroeconomic surveillance
Slovenian experience
Jana Poljak
Zagreb, 22 May 2012
Beginnings of common policy coordination
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Treaty of Maastricht. White paper on Growth, Competitiveness and
Employment – first attempt on common European structural policy
coordination;
Employment Guidelines – National action Plans, Joint employment Report,
Specific Recommendations;
Lisbon Strategy – Integrated Guidelines, common goals for the decade,
open method of coordination, country specific recommendations, national
reform programmes;
Europe 2020 – European semester, reinforced coordination, combined
budgetary and structural policy planning, national targets, national reform
programmes and stability programmes prepared together, additional
instrument for preventive surveillance of the economic and fiscal policies of
its member states.
Greater transparency and a higher concentration of information going
forward give reason to hope that the peripheral states will have a
better chance of demonstrating their vigor in consolidating their
finances => fiscal pact.
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Europe 2020
3 interlinked priorities:
1.) Smart growth: developing
an economy based on
knowledge and innovation
2.) Sustainable growth:
promoting a more efficient,
greener and more
competitive economy
3.) Inclusive growth: fostering
a high-employment
economy delivering social
and territorial cohesion
5 headline targets:
• 75 % employment rate (% of population
aged 20-64 years)
• 3% investment in R&D (% of EU’s GDP)
• “20/20/20” climate/energy targets met
• Less than 10% school drop-out rates
and at least 40% of the population aged
30-34 having completed tertiary or
equivalent education;
• Lifting at least 20 million people out of
the risk of poverty and - exclusion
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EU tools in support of Europe 2020
EU monitoring and guidance
Macro, thematic
and fiscal
surveillance
Annual
policy
guidance
Annual
Growth
Survey
EU flagship initiatives
Digital
Agenda
New
Industrial
Policy
Youth
on the Move
New Skills
and Jobs
Innovation
Union
Platform against
Poverty
Resource
Efficiency
EU levers for growth and jobs
Single
market
relaunch
Trade and
external
policies
EU
financial
support
Reinforced Governance
Europe 2020 five headline targets
Europe 2020 Integrated Guidelines (IG)
Macro-economic
surveillance
National level
EU level
National
Reform
Programmes
Thematic
surveillance
Stability and
Growth Pact
Fiscal
surveillance
Stability and
Convergence
Programmes
Commission’s Annual Growth Survey
EU annual policy guidance and recommendations
EU flagship initiatives and levers
European economic semester
January
European
Commission
February
March
June
July
Policy guidance
including possible
recommendations
Debate &
orientations
European
Parliament
Debate &
orientations
Member
States
May
Annual Growth
Survey
Council of
Ministers
European
Council
April
Finalisation
& adoption
of guidance
Annual
economic &
social summit
Autumn:
Peer review
at EU level
Endorsement
of guidance
Submission of
National Reform
Programmes (NRPs)
& Stability and
Convergence
Programmes (SCPs)
Autumn:
Decisions
at national
level
MACRO
A. EU 2020
GUIDELINES
1. Ensuring the quality and the sustainability of public
3. Reducing imbalances within the euro area
4. Optimising support for R&D and innovation, knowledge triangle
5. Improving resource efficiency and reducing greenhouse
gases
7. Increasing labour market participation, reducing
structural unemployment
6. Improving the business environment, and modernising the
industrial base
8. Developing a skilled workforce responding to labour market
needs and promoting lifelong learning
9. Improving the quality and performance of education and training
systems
10. Promoting social inclusion and combating poverty
New Skills for New Jobs
Youth on the move
FLAGSHIP
INITIATIVES
Resource Efficient Europe
An Industrial Policy for the Globalisation Era
European Platform against Poverty
Digital Agenda for Europe
Macro-economic prerequisites for growth
1. Implementing a rigorous fiscal consolidation
DRIVERS OF
GROWTH and
ACTIONS
1. "20-20-20" climate and
energy targets
1. 75% employment rate for people aged 20–64
2. Reducing the number of persons at risk of poverty
and/or social exclusion from 361,000 to 320,000
Innovation Union
B.ANNUAL GROWTH
SURVEY - 2011
Sustainable Growth
finances
2. Addressing macroeconomic imbalances
EU LEVEL
Inclusive Growth
1. 3% of GDP for R&D expenditure
2. 40% share of population aged 30–34 with
completed tertiary education
3. Share of early school-leavers in primary and
secondary education must remain at 5.1%
GOALS
INTEGRATED
MICRO
Smart Growth
Frontloading growth-enhancing
measures
Mobilising labour markets, creating
job opportunities
4. Making work more attractive
8. Tapping the potential of the Single Market
5. Reforming pensions systems
9. Attracting private capital to finance growth
2. Correcting macro economic imbalances
6. Getting the unemployed back to work
10. Creating cost-effective access to energy
3. Ensuring stability of the financial sector
7. Balancing security and flexibility
EURO PLUS PACT
NATIONAL LEVEL
ANNUAL GROWTH
SURVEY - 2012
PRIORITIES
C. STABILITY
PROGRAMME
D. NATIONAL
REFORM
PROGRAMME
E. Euro plus pact
Pursuing differentiated growth-friendly
fiscal consolidation
Restoring normal lending to the
economy
Promoting growth and competitiveness
for today and tomorrow
Tackling unemployment and social
consequences of the crisis
Modernising public
administration
- Objectives and assumptions of economic policies
- Economic trends and forecasts economic growth
- Deficit and debt
- Quality and sustainability of public finances
MACROECONOMIC SURVEILLANCE:
- Basic assumptions and projections of actual and
potential growth in the period 2011-2014
- Reference to the PS in the area of fiscal rules and
fiscal consolidation
- Indication of the planned structural measures and
their impact on growth
CONTRIBUTING FURTHER TO THE SUSTAINABILITY OF
PUBLIC FINANCES
THEMATIC COORDINATION 2011:
- National targets to achieve five main objectives EU2020
- Bottlenecks to growth
- Indication of specific measures to achieve these goals and
overcome bottlenecks
REINFORCING FINANCIAL STABILITY
CONTENT OF NRP 2012:
- reflect the general guidance identified in the Annual Growth Survey
- report on the measures implemented and planned to address the Country Specific
Recommendations
- report on the measures implemented and planned to achieve the national targets
contributing to the EU headline targets
- report on the measures implemented and planned to fulfill the Euro Plus Pact commitments
FOSTERING COMPETITIVENESS
FOSTERING EMPLOYMENT
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National policy coordination – Slovenia
2005 National Reform Programme for
achieving Lisbon Strategy Goals
• Prepared by Institute for Macroeconomic Analysis and Development
• Independent Office – reports to the Government
• Programe prepared on the basis of Slovenian Development Strategy 20062013
2006 Implementation Report
2007 Implementation Report
• Prepared by Institute for Macroeconomic Analysis and Development
• A comprehensive document – description of current situation and ongoing
processes
2008 Lisbon 2.1
Implementation Report and new Programme
for achieving Lisbon Strategy Goals
• Prepared by Institute for Macroeconomic Analysis and Development
• continuation of current form, no connection to finance, lacks indicators (124
pages)
2009
Implementation Report and new Programme
for achieving Lisbon Strategy Goals
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Prepared by Government Office for Development
short term anti-crisis measures
Structural measures
Tables: review and evaluation of structural measures (18 pages + annex)
2010 EU2020
2011
National Reform Programme
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Prepared by Government Office for Growth and European affairs
Part of a new national policy coordination
Measures include financial aspect, indicators and target values
42 pages + Annex
2012
National Reform Programme
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Prepared by Ministry of Finance
Supported by budget
Prepared together with stability Programme
Economic and social partners consensus
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NRP 2011 evaluation
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Reform Implementation Evaluation
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Guidelines for National Reform
Programmes
GENERAL RULES
NRP should:
• Reflect the general guidance identified annually
in the Annual Growth Survey
• Report on measures implemented and planned
to address Country-Specific Recommendations
• Report on measures implemented and planned
to achieve the national targets contributing to
EU headline targets
• Report on measures to fulfill the Euro Plus Pact
commitments
• Include a macroeconomic scenario in line with
that in the SCPs
For the planed measures:
- it should be specified how they will be
implemented, by when, by whom and with what
budgetary consequences
- they should be concrete enough to allow the
Commission to asses their expected impact,
- they should be prioritised (frontloading)
TRANSPARENCY
COMPARABILITY
INVOLVEMENT OF
CONCERNED PARTIES
EMPHASIS ON
IMPLEMENTATION
ANNUAL UPDATE
EUROPEAN SEMESTER DEADLINE
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Slovenia‘s strategic documents
Slovenia's Development Strategy 2014-2020
Slovenian Exit Strategy (until 2013) and
necessary structural changes
Stability and
Growth Pact
2011
EU 2020
Programme of
Development
Priorities and
Investments
Report on the
Efficiency of
Development Policies
National Reform
Programme
Competitiveness
Report
Stability
Programme
State and municipial budgets,
Funds of Health Insurance
Institute and Pension and
Disability Insurance Institute
Forecast of
Economic Trends
Development
Report
Expected changes in 2012
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Preparation Process
First draft:
Ministry of Finance
Sent to the European
Commission
Presented to the
Parliament
Interministerial
coordination
NRP
Adopted on
Government session
Presented to the
Social Partners
Second draft:
Ministry of Finance
Government Board
for Economic Issues
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Content NRP 2012-2013
1.
Macroeconomic measures for fiscal stability
2.
Agenda of reforms and measures
Smart growth: education, R&D, ICT, industry, administrative burdens
Inclusive growth; employment, social protection
Sustainable growth: transport, environment, agriculture
3.
Simulation of effects of specific measures using the DSGE
4.
Public debate
model
Annex 1: Standard table for the assessment of CSRs and macro-structural
reform in the NRPs
Annex 2: Report on measures to meet EU 2020 targets and other commitments
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Thank you!
[email protected]
[email protected]
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