Transcript Green way ahead - Svenska Kyrkan

Productivity, environment, climate and food
security – how can agriculture meet the
challenges?
Hans R. Herren
Swedish Society for Nature
Conservation (SSNC)
Royal Swedish Academy for Forestry and
Agriculture, 8 September 2011
President www.millennium-institute.org
President www.biovision.ch
Co-Chair IAASTD www.agassessment.org
Coordinator UNEP GER Agriculture Chapter
Productivity, environment, climate and food
security – how can agriculture meet the
challenges?
…by developing and implementing new
policies informed by the key findings and
options for action emanating from the IAASTD
report
“Agriculture at a Crossroads”
K
The IAASTD Reports
(www.agassessment.org)
Co-Chairs: Hans R Herren & Judy Whakungu
Director: Bob Watson
Multi-stakeholder: 400 authors, 52 countries
Multi-disciplinary
Multi-locational: Global / sub-Global Reports
The IAASTD
IAASTD Development and Sustainability Goals (=MDG =
the 4 main areas where agriculture needs to transition):
• Eradicating of Hunger and Poverty
• Improving Rural Livelihoods
• Improving Nutrition and Human Health
• Facilitating Environmentally, Socially, Equitable and
Economically Sustainable Development
…under the challenges of:
• Climate Change
• Population and Demand Growth
• Growing inequity
• Shrinking Natural Resources / Energy
Agriculture a main problem: the green revolution
Bases of green revolution is unsustainable (E-S-E)
David Tilman et al. Science 2001
Understanding the consequences:
Climate change
Source: Stern Review
Understanding the consequences:
CC and water / temperature stresses
2080
-50%
0%
-15% +15% +35%
Understanding the consequences:
overproduction, conversion and wastage
Main conclusions of the IAASTD
“a fundamental shift in AKST and the linked agri-food
system policies, institutions, capacity development and
investments”
Paradigm change: Transition to sustainable / organic
/ecological agri - culture
i.e., addresses multifunctionality and resilience
needs of the small-scale and family farms (social &
economic: equity issue, farmer status, land ownership,
empowerment, women), quality job creation;
• systemic and holistic approach (basic ecological
principles); treat cause not symptoms; is part of the
solution to hunger, poverty, health, CC
Challenges and options for action (IAASTD NAE)
IAASTD Agriculture at a
Crossroads
2009
“Agriculture for Development”
(WDR 08, World Bank)
“The Environmental Food Crisis” 2009
(UNEP)
“A Viable Food Future” 2010
(The Development Fund)
“Innovations that Nourish the Planet”
(SOW 11, World Watch Institute)
“Securing Future Food” 2010
(UK Food Group)
“The future of food and Farming”
2011 (UK Foresight)
“Green Economy Report” 2011
(UNEP)
“Save and Grow” FAO 2011
Agriculture the main solution:
Multifunctionality
paradigm for sustainable development
livable
equitable
sustainable
viable
sustainable, organic,
agroecological, resilient, equitable agriculture
Low productivity
High productivity
Agriculture the main solution: ..via a transition to
Un-sustainable
Sustainable
Agroecology and Sustainable Development
Legislation
(policies)
Solidarius
certification
Fair market
Commercialization
Extension
Methodologies
Socioeconomics
Conventional
System
Conversion
Cultural
Agroecology
Environmental
Alternative inputs
Participatory
research
Farmer to farmer
network
Institutional
partnerships
Slide courtesy M. Altieri
Agroecology
Agroecology is the study of the interactions between
plants, animals, humans and the environment within
agricultural systems.
Consequently, agroecology is inherently
multidisciplinary, including factors from agronomy,
ecology, sociology and economics. In this case, the “ecology” portion of "agroecology is defined broadly to
include social, cultural, and economic contexts as well
(Dalgaard et al.2003)
The Green way ahead: Organic
agriculture (+resilience)
Organic
Conventional
In 1995 –drought year
Green way ahead:
……..using the gifts of nature, habitat management
The Green way ahead: Animals on farm
It is
imperative to
put the
animals back
on farm:
sanitation,
health,
carbon cycle,
sustainability
The Green way ahead: SRI: System
of rice (and other crops) intensification
Green way ahead:
…no chemicals? more numbers 1:242 cost:benefits
Green way ahead: Biotechnology
and genetic engineering
Green way ahead: genetic
engineering: less choices,
diversity..
David Quist, 2010 pers com
The Green way ahead: More diversity (plants
and animals)
Encouraging a
wider genetic
base in
agriculture…trees
, fruits, grains,
vegetables, lost
crops, animals
for nutrition,
cultural diversity,
incomes, pest
control, resilience
to climate change
The Green way ahead: Appropriate mechanization
Green way ahead: is knowledge
intensive
•
Improve and expand extension services (ICT)
•
Introduce capacity building (ICT)
•
Agriculture is very localized = local solutions
Example: Biovision’s Farmer Communication Program
The forward looking scenarios:
Analysis and investments
Global investments across sectors (1% and 2% of GDP); 0.2%
and 0.32% of GDP invested in AG and fisheries (50-50).
- Pre harvest losses (training activities and effective pesticide
(emphasis on natural/bio products) use)
- Ag management practices (costs to transition from till to no till
agriculture, training, access to small mechanization)
- R&D (research on crop improvement, soil science and agronomy,
appropriate mechanization, and more)
- Food processing (better storage and processing in rural areas)
In addition, need to invest in the “enabling conditions”
(infrastructure, institutions, governance)
The forward looking scenarios:
Its all connected…….system dynamics
Land Loss &
Flooding
Food Production
Health Catastrophes
Land Loss
Energy Sector
Biofuels
Production
Life Sustaining
Calories per Capita
S
S
S
O
Petroleum Use for
Fertilizer
S
Famines
O
O
S
S
Calorie
Gap
Habitat
Conversion
O
S
R
S
Fertilizer
Demand
R
Toxic
Residue
O
O
O
S
Soil
Capacity
Soil Nutrient
Productioin
S
Soil Nutient
Consumption
Human
Births
Calories per
Capita
B
Acres in
Agriculture
Plant
Production
Plant
Calories
O
Soil
Salinization
O
Droughts
S
Plant
Consumption
S
Human
Population
S
Migration
Plant Calories for
Human Use
S
S
S
Variation in Rainfall
Pattern
Human
Deaths
S
O
S
S
Population
Density
S
B
Human
Population
S
S
Exposure to a Higher
Standard of Living
Plant Calories for
Meat Production
Irrigation
S
S
Water
Demand
Fresh Water
S
Global
Temperature
S
Pursuit of 1st World
Food Mix
S
Methane
Production
S
S
S
Global
Warming
Meat
Production
Meat
Calories
S
Meat
Consumption
Migration
Agriculture in a Green Economy (UNEP Report – 2011)
Investing between 0.1% and 0.16% of total GDP ($83-$141 Billion) / year
The way ahead
Rio+20
What are the options
when “Business as usual” is not an option?
When is: NOW
We have the key findings and options for action from
the IAASTD report series…
Now is time to implement them
understand and remove the roadblocks, expand the
multistakeholder process and link it to other policy
relevant processes (CFS, etc)
The way ahead
You cannot solve the problem with the same kind of
thinking that created the problem. Albert Einstein
[email protected]
Thank you