Transcript What is the impact of intra Eu migration

What is the impact of intra-EU
migration?
Are Changes to Free Movement Rules Needed?
WEDNESDAY 9 SEPTEMBER 2015
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Chair
Cllr Peter Robinson
Lincolnshire County Council
Chair of the East Midlands Strategic Migration
Partnership
Other Forms of Migration
Outside of the scope of the event
Asylum Seeker

An asylum seeker is someone who has fled persecution in their country of
origin, has arrived in another country, made themselves known to the
authorities and exercised their right to apply for asylum.
Refugee

A refugee is someone whose asylum application has been successful
and who is allowed to stay in another country.
Failed asylum seeker

A failed asylum seeker is someone whose asylum application has been
turned down and is awaiting return to their country of origin. If it is not
safe for refused asylum seekers to return, they may have to stay for the
time being.
Illegal Immigrant

An illegal immigrant is someone who has arrived in another country and
has no legal basis for being there.
Intra-EU Migration

Austria
► Italy

Belgium
► Latvia

Bulgaria
► Lithuania

Cyprus
► Luxembourg

Croatia
► Malta

Czech Republic
► Netherlands

Denmark
► Poland

Estonia
► Portugal

Finland
► Romania

France
► Slovakia

Germany
► Slovenia

Greece
► Spain

Hungary
► Sweden

Ireland
► United Kingdom
Free Movement
Four basic freedoms in the single market:

Goods

Services

Capital

People
The free movement of persons means EU citizens can move
freely between member states to live, work, study or retire in
another country.
Other Forms of Migration
Outside of the scope of the event
Asylum seeker

An asylum seeker is someone who has fled persecution in their country of
origin, has arrived in another country, made themselves known to the
authorities and exercised their right to apply for asylum.
Refugee

A refugee is someone whose asylum application has been successful
and who is allowed to stay in another country.
Failed asylum seeker

A failed asylum seeker is someone whose asylum application has been
turned down and is awaiting return to their country of origin. If it is not
safe for refused asylum seekers to return, they may have to stay for the
time being.
Illegal immigrant

An illegal immigrant is someone who has arrived in another county and
has no legal basis for being there.
The scale and impact of EU and non-EU
migration to the UK and East Midlands
9th September, 2015
Chris Lawton
Division of Economics
Nottingham Business School
Introduction
• ONS migration statistics published on the 27th August
indicate a record level of net migration to the UK
• Media focus on refugee crisis: Calais; the fatalities in the
Mediterranean; and cross-EU movements (e.g. Budapest to
Munich) - but asylum applications to UK well below 2002
peak
• Refugees/asylum seekers make up a small minority of
current immigration inflows and total UK net migration
• Legal precedents, service impacts and economic impacts
differ for EU migrants and non-EU economic migrants
compared to refugees/asylum seekers
Definitions
• Migration: the net balance of immigration less emigration
• A migrant is (UN definition): “a person who moves to a country other than
his or her usual residence for a period of at least a year”. Includes:
– EU migrants: nationals of an EU Member State are ‘EU citizens’ and thus
have the right of Free Movement within the EU to work, study or retire.
Also covers nationals of non-EU member EEA countries (Norway, Iceland
and Liechtenstein) and Swiss nationals
– Non-EU migrants: require visas/work permits, allocated on a skill Points
Based System (PBS) – Tier 1 (high value); Tier 2 (skilled workers with a
job offer); Tier 4 (students). Tier 3 (unskilled) entry routes are not open
– Family members: spouse/children of an EU/EEA citizen who are
nationals of a 3rd country or spouse/children of principal visa applicant
– Asylum granted to those applicants who meet the criteria for refugee
status in the view of the UK Government (+ other forms of protection)
– Illegal immigrants: illegal migrants will all be from non-EU countries.
May subsequently claim asylum. A very small minority of migrants
Latest Migration Estimates
• Net long term international migration (LTIM) to the UK was
330,000 in the 12 months to March 2015. This is a result of:
– Immigration: + 636,000
– Emigration: - 307,000
• Of total immigration:
– Number and % from the EU: 269,000; 42.3%
– Number and % non-EU: 284,000; 44.7%
– A total of 11,600 were granted asylum or alternate form of
protection in the 12 months to June 2015, approximately 4%
of total net migration (and 2% of immigration)
• Total net LTIM for 2015 is 0.5% of the UK population of 65
million
• Net migration contributed 53% of total UK population growth
between mid-2013 and mid-2014 (compared to natural change)
Net Migration to the UK – Long Term
International Migration (LTIM)
800
Highest on record
600
Thousands ('000s)
400
200
0~
200
400
600
Emigration
Immigration
Net Migration
Source: Source: ONS Crown Copyright, 2015. ‘Long Term International Migration – year ending June/March’, from
‘Migration Statistics Quarterly Report, August 2015,’ 27th August, 2015.
p Estimates for March 2014 to March 2015 are provisional.
Net LTIM by Citizenship
+ 400
+ 350
+ 300
Highest on record
+ 250
+ 200
+ 150
+ 100
+ 50
Mar-12
Jun-12
Sep-12
Dec-12
Mar-13
Jun-13
Sep-13
Dec-13
Mar 14p
Jun 14p
Sep 14p
Dec 14p
Mar 15p
- 50
- 100
Total
British
EU Total
EU15
EU8
Non-EU
Source: Source: ONS Crown Copyright, 2015. ‘Long Term International Net Migration by Citizenship’, from ‘Migration
Statistics Quarterly Report, August 2015,’ 27th August, 2015.
p Estimates for March 2014 to March 2015 are provisional.
Share of EU Immigration by
Citizenship
• IPS data allows a more detailed breakdown of EU
immigration by citizenship in March 2015:
– Bulgaria and Romania (EU2): 53,000 (up 25,000 from
March 2014) (transitional controls lifted on 1.1.14)
– EU8: 72,000 (up 12,000)
– EU15: 116,000 (up 10,000)
• Proportion of total EU immigration to the UK:
– EU2: 22% (up from 14% in 2014)
– EU8: 30% (down from 31%)
– EU15: 48% (down from 55%)
+ 350
Reasons for Migration (Net LTIM)
+ 300
+ 250
+ 200
+ 150
+ 100
+ 50
- 50
All Reasons
All Work-Related
Definite Job
Looking for Work
Accompany/Join Family
Formal Study
Other
Source: Source: ONS Crown Copyright, 2015. ‘Long Term International Net Migration by Main Reason for Migration’,
from ‘Migration Statistics Quarterly Report, August 2015’ 27th August, 2015.
p Estimates for March 2014 to March 2015 are provisional.
Citizenship of National Insurance
Number registrations (and PAYE)
• Top 5 EU nationalities for NINO registrations in the year to
June 2015 were:
–
–
–
–
–
Romanian
Polish
Italian
Spanish
Bulgarian
• Top 5 non-EU nationalities were:
–
–
–
–
–
Indian
Pakistani
Chinese
Australian
Nigerian
Employment Rates
100
% in employment, aged 16-64
90
80
70
60
50
40
April-June 2013
April-June 2015
Source: ONS Crown Copyright, 2015. ‘Table 8: Employment levels and rates by country of
birth and nationality’ from ‘Labour Market Statistics, August 2015’, 12th August, 2015.
Numbers in Employment
2,500
People in Employment (Thousands)
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0
Total EU nationals
Total non-EU nationals
Source: ONS Crown Copyright, 2015. ‘Table 8: Employment levels and rates by country of
birth and nationality’ from ‘Labour Market Statistics, August 2015’, 12th August, 2015.
Push/Pull factors
• To understand migration flows: push/pull factors that encourage an
individual to leave their country of origin (push) and choose a given
destination country (pull)
• If work-related reasons account for the largest share of EU immigration,
welfare/benefit considerations are unlikely to be the most significant factor
• Post Financial Crisis, big differences in EU labour markets
• Eurostat employment rate for Jan-March 2015 in the UK was 72.4%:
–
–
–
–
–
Italy – 55.5%
Spain - 56.4%
Romania – 59.1%
Bulgaria – 61%
Poland – 61.9%
• This is likely to also be reflected in wage differentials
• UK demand for labour in certain sectors (skills gaps in health, social care, IT
etc., Higher Education etc.)
• Demographic factors: ageing population compared to some origin countries
What is ‘Free Movement’
• Right of all EU ‘citizens’ (automatically granted to EU or EEA nationals)
• 1992 Treaty of Maastricht formally linked the ideas of EU citizenship to
free movement
• One of the key aspects of EU economic integration:
– Free movement of goods and services (as in a trade agreement);
– Free movement of the means of production – capital and labour; plus
– Service providers and service recipients (e.g. students)
• Equals free movement to work, study or retire
• Citizens of new EU member states automatically become EU citizens
• Schengen Agreement – common visa policy and free passage across
borders of participating member states (the UK and Ireland opt-out)
• In theory, free movement is reciprocal and continent wide: without
significant disparities in push/pull factors, should equal a circular flow or
churn within the EU
Free Movement contd.
• EU Enlargement from 2004 and differential impacts of recessions and EU
currency crisis from 2007/8
• Transitional Controls on free movement of new EU citizens: exercised in
2004 by all member states except for UK, Ireland and Sweden
• UK experienced higher than expected immigration from central and
eastern European states in 2004/5
• UK applied much stricter transitional controls for Romania/Bulgaria (work
permits – except for self-employed), lifted at start of 2014
• Recent significant increase in immigration from recession-hit southern
European states significant contribution to increased total migration
• EU law allows EU states to make distinctions between their own citizens
and EU citizens (e.g. in voting, student finance, etc.)
• Right to security of residence means right to equal treatment on issues
such as welfare become stronger the longer an individual resides in a
country. Recent Trend in UK practice of imposing additional barriers may
be “skating on thin legal ice” regarding welfare law
Impacts on the East Midlands
Total Population Growth by English
Region, 2004-2014 (%)
16
14
12
%
10
8
6
4
2
0
North East
North West Yorkshire and
West
The Humber Midlands
South West
East
Midlands
England
South East
East of
England
London
Source: ONS Crown Copyright, 2015. ‘Mid-year Population Estimates’, 2004-2014, from
NOMIS [accessed 8th September, 2015].
Census 2001 and 2011 – Non-UK Born Population
40
35
% of total resident population
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
2001
2011
Source: ONS Crown Copyright, 2013. ‘2011 Census: Key Statistics for local authorities in
England and Wales’, Table KS204EW: Country of birth, local authorities in England and Wales.
Numbers in Employment: East Midlands
160,000
140,000
120,000
100,000
80,000
60,000
40,000
20,000
0
White not UK national
Ethnic minority not UK national
Source: ONS Crown Copyright, 2015. ‘Annual Population Survey’, January-December
2004 to January-December 2014, from NOMIS [accessed 8th September, 2015].
Research on the Impacts of Migration
• Significant body of recent academic and
public-sector research exploring:
– Fiscal impacts (contributions in taxation less value
of benefits and services)
– Labour market impacts
• ‘Displacement’ of native workers into unemployment?
• ‘Dampening’ of average wages or the wages of UK-born
workers?
– Economic impacts (contribution to GDP)
Fiscal Impacts
• Research by Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS), University College London,
and the Office for Budgetary Responsibility (OBR):
– Migrants, having a younger age profile than non-migrants (and less
likely to have dependents) + higher employment rates generally leads
to a positive net fiscal contribution;
– The OBR estimates that, without migration, the UK net public sector
debt would rise from 74% of GDP in 2012 to 187% in 50 years’ time
(above the current national debt of Greece);
– UCL estimate that recent migrants (post-2001) and those from EUcountries were be 45% less likely than non-migrants to receive state
benefits or tax credits; and
– Between 2001 and 2011, recent EU migrants contributed 34% more to
the fiscal system than they took out in benefits, tax credits and
services. UK natives and established non-EU migrants (pre-2001),
because of their older age profiles (and greater likelihood of
dependents/lower employment rate), contributed 11% less in taxes
than the value of the benefits and services they received.
Labour Market Impacts
• Research tests the following hypotheses:
– According to mainstream economic theory, the labour
market will adjust to an increase in labour supply in the
long-run, and will return to equilibrium employment levels
and wages
– But different skill levels between migrants compared to
non-migrants may, in the short-run, cause non-migrants to
be displaced into unemployment and/or average wages to
fall
– There is not a fixed number of jobs in the economy: one
additional migrant in employment does not necessarily
lead to one less job available for a UK native
Labour Market Impacts contd.
• Home Office/BIS research (March 2014):
– No evidence of displacement or wage dampening prior to 2008, even following
significant increase in net-migration after 2004 EU enlargement. Employment levels
of migrants and non-migrants increased
– As the recession impacted on the UK labour market in the latter half of 2008,
employment levels for UK-born workers and non-EU migrants fell up to 2012
– Employment levels of EU-migrants recovered from 2009
– From 2012, employment levels of UK-born and non-EU migrants began to increase.
Employment levels for UK-born workers grew more strongly than for migrants
between 2012 and 2013
– Therefore, the cross-departmental study concluded that:
during periods of overall economic growth, there was little or no evidence of
displacement – the labour market adjusted rapidly to any increase in supply;
in periods of recession, if this also coincided with high volumes of net migration,
there may be some instances of displacement (both for UK and non-EU workers) –
with EU workers being particularly resilient.
East Midlands Research
• Undertaken by the Warwick Institute for Employment
Research (IER) in 2007 and 2011 for EM region:
– Rates of pay growth did not differ in occupations in which high
proportions of migrants were employed compared to the average
– Exits by UK-born workers from occupations where large proportions of
migrants were employed were stable over time, and did not appear to
increase as the number of migrants increased after 2004
– Following the onset of recession in 2008, job losses were particularly
evident in Manufacturing and Transport and Storage, with the impacts
being proportionately similar for migrants and non-migrants
– At a local level, there was no strong relationship between changes in
the numbers of migrant workers and changes in the rate or numbers
unemployed
– In the 2007 research, migrants had a polarised distribution in the East
Midlands: in either very highly skilled occupations, or in low skill
occupations.
– In the 2011 research, there were higher concentrations in low skill
occupations
Summary
• Non-EU migrants account for the largest share of annual net migration,
but EU migration has increased to the highest level on record
• Largest proportion of EU migration for work-related reasons, with the
majority (61%) having a definite job offer
• Study continues to be the main reason for non-EU migration to the UK
• EU citizens have a significantly higher rate of employment that UK
nationals and non-EU citizens in the UK
• Although non-EU citizens make up a larger share of annual net migration,
EU citizens now make up a significantly larger share of employment
numbers in both the UK and the East Midlands
• In the East Midlands, EU nationals are more concentrated in Lincolnshire,
the cities and surrounding districts, whilst non-EU nationals are more
concentrated in the cities (especially Leicester)
• Research suggests EU migrants make a significant net fiscal contribution
• There is little evidence that EU migrants displace non-migrants in the
labour market
www.tuc.org.uk
Employment of Migrant
Workers in the
Regional Economy
Lee Barron
Regional Secretary
TUC Midlands
www.tuc.org.uk
TUC position on
migration
• All workers have fundamental rights
• Migrant workers must be treated equally
otherwise they will be used by bad
employers to undercut local workers - unions
have been active in organising migrants to
build collective floor level of rigths
• Free Movement is a fundamental right of the
EU
• the TUC opposed transitional measures for
the accession of the ‘A8’ and ‘A2’ countries to
the EU
www.tuc.org.uk
Migrants in labour
market
• 9.9% of the East Midlands resident population
were born outside the UK – below the UK average
of 13.8%
• According to the Labour Force Survey 8.3% of
the total workforce in the East Midlands has a
non-UK nationality – lower than the UK average
of 10.3%
• Majority of migrant workers are employed in high
and low skill sectors, few in between
• Many migrants in low skill jobs work for agencies
– precarious contracts and low wages are the
norm, exploitation also common
www.tuc.org.uk
Wages:
Migrants don’t drive down pay – bad
employers do. Too many employers use
migrants willingness to work for less (as
they are often in need of finding work
quickly and wages are higher than in their
home countries).
Jobs:
little evidence of job displacement,
however, the growth in precarious work has
made more local workers feel insecure.
Migrants are being used as scapegoats but
are not the cause of insecure jobs – bad
employers are. We need more quality jobs
for everyone and decent pay.
www.tuc.org.uk
No evidence of ‘benefit
tourism’
• EU Commission has found no
evidence of benefit tourism in 2013
report
• A8 migrants contribute £22 billion
more to the economy than they
consumed in services (UCL, 2013)
www.tuc.org.uk
Migration Messaging project
April 2014 – 2015:
TUC worked with
communities to
promote messages of
solidarity and workers
rights to counter antimigrant media and
political rhetoric
www.tuc.org.uk
TUC worked with Corby
community, unions and employers
to make the film ‘Fairness at Work:
Lessons from Corby’
https://www.tuc.org.uk/about-tuc/regions/watch-film-%E2%80%98fairness-work-lessons-corby%E2%80%99
www.tuc.org.uk
TUC Education work on
migration
www.tuc.org.uk
TUC work with
European partners
1. TUC ran a European Commission funded project
‘Developing information for migrant workers
through transnational trade union cooperation’ in
2014– http://www.migrantinfo.eu/
2. This helped to fund the TUC’s ‘Working in the UK’
guide in 13 different languages including Polish,
Spanish and Romanian www.tuc.org.uk/workingintheuk
3. TUC has signed a number of agreements to
work in partnership with unions in other
countries, eg. Poland, Italy, Portugal
www.tuc.org.uk
European Trade Union
Confederation
TUC is part of the European Trade Union Confederation (ETUC)
and part of its ‘UnionMigrantNet’ portal which provides
information on employment rights to EU migrants looking to
move from one country to another
ETUC actions on EU migration:
• European states must treat migrants equally
• Inform them of their rights
• Counter moves by states such as the UK to limit free
movement
• Commission and Member States must provide more
resources to help integrate migrants into communities and to
unions to organise migrants so they can claim inform them of
their rights. States must do more to enforce employment
regulation to prevent migrants being exploited,
• See ETUC Action Plan on migration
https://www.etuc.org/documents/action-planmigration#.VeBGoCVViko
East Midlands Economy
and Trends
Ian Bates, East Midlands Chamber
East Midlands Profile
The East Midlands – 'A bellwether of the UK economy’ –
Governor Mark Carney, August 2013
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Well balanced economy: strong manufacturing, but also
significant service sector, retail, distribution and construction;
Manufacturing a bigger contributor to GVA than any other
region;
Businesses numbers: 145,295
Micro (0-9 employees):
87.6%
UK: 88.2%
Small (10-49):
10.2%
UK: 9.7%
Medium (50-249):
1.8%
UK: 1.7%
Large (250+):
0.4%
UK: 0.4%
East Midlands Profile
Occupation by sector
16.0%
Wholesale/retail
12.7%
Manufacturing
7.5%
Professional/scientific/technical
6.4%
Construction
5.3%
Transportation & storage
East Midlands Profile
Occupation by job type
16.9%
Professional
13.0%
Technical
10.5%
Administrative
11.1%
Skilled
9.9%
Managers
9.2%
Personal Services
7.6%
Sales & Customer services
8.5%
Plant/Machinery operatives - highest in country
12.8%
Elementary (e.g. unskilled, manual) - highest in
country
From bellwether to leader
East Midlands – one of the fastest growing
regional economies
•
•
GVA growth of 8.5% 2009-2012, highest outside of London and
South East
Manufacturing is a bigger contributor to GVA than anywhere else in
UK
• RBS Regional Growth Tracker
“…. but it has been the East Midlands that has been standing out from
the pack in the last 12 months. The region has shared in the recovery in
professional, scientific and technical services, but stood out from the pack
thanks to the performance of its retail and distribution industries.
Its advanced manufacturing sector has also been roaring along. The region
also benefits from an inherent productivity advantage over most of its peers,
which has further boosted growth.”
From bellwether to leader
Employment
• Unemployment amongst 16+ in East Midlands now stands at 4.7%
(5.6% nationally);
• Creating private sector jobs faster than any other region – 104,000 in
2013/14
• Gross weekly pay for full-time workers of £547 (£580 nationally)
What QES tells us about skills
Quarterly economic survey is the largest business survey of its kind –
for Derbs, Notts and Leics receives 400+ responses each quarter
Q2 2015
Attempted to recruit:
Struggled to recruit:
Q2 2014:
Attempted to recruit:
Struggled to recruit:
Q2 2013:
Attempted to recruit:
Struggled to recruit:
61%
60%
56%
50%
40%
42%
What QES tells us about skills
What type of roles?
85% are full-time roles
80% are permanent roles
What areas do people struggle to fill?
56% report struggles to fill professional/managerial roles
45% report struggles to fill skilled manual
20% report struggles to fill clerical
20% report struggles to fill unskilled/semiskilled roles.
Overarching message
• East Midlands economy is growing
• Key strength is our diversity of sectors, meaning variety of job-types are
created at variety of levels
• Structural issues in education mean that the workforce we need does not
exist at present
• Free movement of labour across EU has been an important tool in helping
us meet demands of growth in the short-term
• The importance of this may diminish in the longer-term as we address
structural issues in the education system and look to develop our
economy towards high-wage, high-skilled.
Ian Bates,
East Midlands Chamber of Commerce
(Derbyshire, Nottinghamshire & Leicestershire)
[email protected] / 0333 320 0333
Facilitated discussion


1. What is the impact of intra-EU migration?

a. Impact on the Labour Market

b. Impact on Public Services

c. Impact on Communities
2. Are changes to free movement rules needed?

If so, what might those changes look like?