Transcript World Development Report 2016 - Tallinn e

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World Development Report 2016 – Digital Dividends
Key lessons of WDR16 and WB e-gov agenda
Juan Navas-Sabater
Lead ICT Policy Specialist
The World Bank
[email protected]
The Transport and ICT
Global Practice
Smart Connections
for All
Tallinn e-Governance Conference 2016
Tallinn, Estonia
May 30, 2016
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#wdr2016
www.worldbank.org/wdr2016
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Digital technologies have spread rapidly
The world, based on internet population (2014)
SOURCE: World Bank. Data at http://bit.do/WDR2016-MapO_1.
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Digital revolution has brought many private benefits
A typical day in the life of the internet
SOURCE: WDR 2016 team; http://www.internetlivestats.com/one-second/ (As compiled on May 29, 2015)
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But are countries reaping sizable digital dividends?
DIGITAL DIVIDENDS
Growth
Jobs
Services
Business
People
Government
AGENTS
Are the benefits reaching everyone, everywhere?
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Digital technologies are transforming BUSINESS
DIGITAL MARKETPLACE
Number of small & medium
enterprises on Taobao (Alibaba):
5 MILLION
& COUNTING
SOURCE: http://www.alizila.com/chinas-online-cowboy-rounds-buyers
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Digital technologies are transforming PEOPLE’S LIVES
DIGITAL PAYMENTS
Number of mobile money
accounts worldwide:
300 MILLION
& COUNTING
(end of 2014)
Where mobile
money accounts
outnumber
bank accounts
SOURCE: John Owens, Alliance for Financial Inclusion, June 2013.
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Digital technologies are transforming GOVERNMENT
DIGITAL IDENTITY
Indians with digital identity:
950 MILLION
& COUNTING
SOURCE: http://www.newindianexpress.com/cities/chennai/Trafficking-Victims-see-New-life-in-Aadhaar/2015/03/30/article2737396.ece
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The main mechanisms to promote development
Expand the information base, lower information costs and create information goods
SOURCE: WDR 2016
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Digital technology can accelerate growth …
TRADE
The internet enables more firms to
reach new markets, 2001-12
PRODUCTIVITY
COMPETITION
Vietnamese firms using ecommerce have higher total factor
productivity growth, 2007-12
Average monthly trips per traditional
taxi in San Francisco after Uber
started operation
SOURCE: Chapter 1, WDR 2016 (http://www.worldbank.org/en/publication/wdr2016)
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Digital technology can expand opportunities…
JOB CREATION
Number of oDesk contractors
SOURCE: Chapter 2, WDR 2016 (http://www.worldbank.org/en/publication/wdr2016)
PRODUCTIVITY &
CONSUMER SURPLUS
Africa: Respondents that agree with each statement on
benefits and use of mobile phones, 2011–12
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Digital technology can improve service delivery…
CAPACITY
Complaints were resolved quickly in the Nairobi water
utility after the introduction of digital customer feedback
SOURCE: Chapter 3, WDR 2016 (http://www.worldbank.org/en/publication/wdr2016)
TRANSPARENCY
e-government systems increase the
transparency of government budgets, 2014
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e-government: Significant investments in developing
countries, but more focused on core public financial
systems than on online services or digital IDs
e-customs
financial management
e-procurement
e-customs
tax management
financial management
Core
systems
human resources
e-procurement
e-ID
tax management
e-filing
e-services portal
human resources
0
20
40
60
percentage of countries
e-ID
High income
Middle income
Low income
e-filing
e-services portal
0
20
40
60
percentage of countries
High income
80
100
80
1
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Few countries have a multi-purpose digital ID, like
Estonia’s
None
Identification purposes only
Identification and access
to several services
Multi-purpose digital ID, with access
to a large number of online services
0
20
Percentage of countries
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High-income countries
Developing countries
60
15
100
80
60
45:1
40
20
top income quartile
third quartile
second quartile
bottom quartile
0
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
GDP per capita (US$)
Citizen use of eservices,
however, lags
supply even in
the EU countries
and is highly
sensitive to
income
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Then why the deep pessimism surrounding the global economy?
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Business
People
Governments
Not because of digital technologies, but in spite of them
SOURCE: Total Economy Database, Conference Board; and WDR 2016 team;
Christoph Lakner and Branko Milanovic 2013; Bishop and Hoeffler 2014.
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1. A significant digital divide remains
6 BILLION without BROADBAND
4 BILLION without INTERNET
2 BILLION without MOBILE PHONES
0.4 BILLION without A DIGITAL SIGNAL
Divides persist between and within countries—in access and capability
SOURCE: WDR 2016 team based on Research ICT Africa and ITU data
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… between and within countries—in access and capability
SOURCE: WDR 2016 team, based on Research ICT Africa surveys (various years) for 10 African countries.
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Digital technologies tend to be:
Productivity-biased
Skills-biased
Voice-biased
0.4
1.0
35%
0.3
30%
Core e-government systems
0.8
Digital adoption index
% firms with website
25%
20%
15%
10%
0.6
0.4
0.2
5%
0.2
0.1
0
-0.1
-0.2
-0.3
0%
0.0
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q5
0
20
40
60
% of High ICT Intensity Occupations
Productivity quartiles
-0.4
-0.5
-0.3 -0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5
Budget transparency (index)
Limiting the aggregate gains from the digital revolution
SOURCE: WDR 2016 team based on Research ICT Africa and ITU data
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2. Digital technologies hold benefits as well as risks
with
complements
INNOVATION
EFFICIENCY
INCLUSION
CONCENTRATION
INEQUALITY
CONTROL
DIGITAL
TECHNOLOGIES
without
complements
What are those complements?
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Scale without COMPETITION
 lower digital adoption and growing divergence
SOURCE: Eurostat, circa 2014,.WDR 2016 Team
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Automation without SKILLS
 polarized labor markets and greater inequality
Annual average change in employment share, circa 1995–circa 2012
SOURCE: WDR 2016 team, based on ILO KILM (ILO, various years); I2D2
(World Bank, various years); National Bureau of Statistics of China (various years)
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Information without ACCOUNTABILITY
 greater state control and elite capture
CHANNELS
IMPACT
High
Automating tasks
Medium
Citizens feedback
Medium
Provider management
Low
Free and fair elections
High
Informed voting
Medium
Collective action
Low
INCLUSION
SOURCE: WDR 2016 Team, Pew Research
EFFICIENCY
GOVERNMENT
CAPABILITY
CITIZEN
EMPOWERMENT
INNOVATION
SERVICE DELIVERY
Informing citizens
OUTCOMES
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User feedback is effective for some
service; Example, Nairobi water utility
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…but citizens often not engaged:
Example, LAPOR, Indonesia
Percent of citizen complaints
that are actionable
Distribution of actionable complaints by
service
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Channel
Evidence
Freer and fairer
elections
High
impact
Summary of findings


Digital monitoring reduces errors and fraud in voting
Digital IDs increase voter registration
80
10
Perceptions of Electoral Integrity Score
CRI
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
TON
GRD
BRA
MUS
8
STP
6
TUN
SLV GEO
ZAF MNG
COL
IND
ROU
BTNNPL
IDNBOL
UKR
PAN SRB
PRY
NAM
RWA
SLB
ECU
TUR
PAKPHL
MDA
ALB
BIH
MDV
IRN JORBGR
CMR
BWA
MLI
GIN
FJI
HUN
IRQ THA
MKD
EGY
HND
SWZ
MRT KEN
MNE
MDG
ARM
MOZ
KHM
VEN
ZWE DZA
MYS
TGO
MWI
4
BGD
TJK
DJI
2
AZE
AFG
TKM
0
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
0
.2
.4
.6
Digital Adoption Index
Number of electoral democracies
Percentage of elections that are free and fair
Source: WDR team based on Bishop and Hoeffler (2014) data and Perceptions of Electoral Integrity data
.8
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Digital technologies can reinforce socioeconomic
disparities in voter participation
Internet voting can increase voter participation,
as in Estonia…
European Parliament
National
30
National
Municipal
20
European Parliament
Municipal
10
National
Municipal
0
2005
2010
2015
Source: WDR 2016 team based on Vassil (2015) and Spada et al. (2015)
…but be biased toward more privileged
groups, as in Brazil
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WB funded digital technology projects are
more successful in countries with higher
quality institutions
0
-1
-2
-3
Project outcome
1
Each observation
represents an egovernment project,
for a total of 530
projects
-2
-1
0
1
Quality of institutions
2
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Complements
Race between
technology and
complements
Complements: Index of quality of
institutions, skills and regulations.
Technology: Digital adoption index businesses, people and governments.
Technology
SOURCE: WDR 2016 team. For more details see figure 5.3 in the full Report.
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The WDR 2016 proposes policies at three levels
SECTORAL
NATIONAL
GLOBAL
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SECTORAL
POLICIES
Making internet access
universal, affordable, open and safe
SUPPLY SIDE ISSUES
•
Competition policy
•
Public-private partnerships
•
Effective telecom &
internet regulation
Mobile cellular subscriptions
in the Horn of Africa
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SECTORAL
POLICIES
Making internet access
universal, affordable, open and safe
1993
DEMAND SIDE ISSUES
•
Protecting personal privacy
•
Cybersecurity
•
Censorship and content filtering
“On the Internet, nobody knows you’re a dog.”
2014
“Now Google and its like are
surveillance machines that
know not only that you’re a dog
but whether you have fleas and
which brand of meaty chunks
you prefer.” (Economist)
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NATIONAL
PRIORITIES
SOURCE: WDR 2016 team.
Analog foundations for
a digital economy
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Emerging
Transitioning
Transforming
• Mobile phone
based
informational
services
• Increasing the
impact of egovernment
systems
• Integrated
“whole of
government”
digital solutions
• Strengthen
provider
monitoring and
payment
• Institutionalizing
user feedback on
service quality
• Participatory
policymaking
• Improve election
monitoring
SOURCE: WDR 2016 team.
• Targeted
transparency
initiatives
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GLOBAL
COOPERATION
International consensus on
cross-border issues
• A governance model for an open and safe internet
• Removing barriers to a global digital market
• Leveraging information for sustainable development
• Get wired
• Build platforms
• Go global
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World Bank Group vision of ICT as a tool for
Economic Development
TWIN GOALS OF THE WBG
(ending extreme
poverty / promoting shared prosperity)
UN Sustainable Development Goals targets
WDR Report 2016 : Developing countries should:
•
•
•
Make the internet universal, affordable, open and safe
Strengthen the analog foundations of the digital economy
Improve global cooperation to address trans-boundary problems
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World Bank Group Support to ICT
More than 110 countries helped with investment and technical assistance in the ICT
Sector.
World Bank Portfolio
74% ICT
Components
More than 1,300 World Bank projects have ICT components (74% of the Bank’s
portfolio).
Since 2003, ICT sector reforms helped attract $30 billion in private investment.
IFC: Over $2.3 billion in telecommunications infrastructure.
MIGA: Over $550 million in political risks guarantees to support private investments.
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World Bank Group Instruments
Wide range of solutions to address
development challenges
Financing
Instruments
•
•
•
•
Investment Project
Financing
(IBRD/IDA
loans/credits)
Development Policy
Financing
Program-for-Results
Trust Funds and
Grants
•
Private Sector
Options
•
Customized Options
and Risk
Management
Services
•
Technical
Assistance
•
Reimbursable
Advisory Service
•
Economic and
Sector Work
•
Business Advice
•
Donor Aid
Coordination
Overview of WB Digital Development Product Lines
Support ICT Sector Growth &
Development
Support Improved Service Delivery
through ICT
Thematic Area #2:
DIGITAL GOVERNMENT PLATFORMS & SOLUTIONS
Thematic Area #1:
DIGITAL CONNECTIVITY
ICT strategy: Transform
WDR foundations: Institutions that are capable and accountable
INFRA
STRUCTURE
ENABLING
ENVIORNMENT
ICT strategy: Connect
WDR foundations: Regulations for competition & market entry
ICT Enabling Environment
Telecom policy and regulation
Sector reform and privatization
New technology and business models
Broadband Access for All
International fiber linkages
Fiber backbones
Internet exchange points
Last mile connectivity
Digital solutions enablers: IT policy and regulation
Cybersecurity and privacy
IT standards and architecture
Digital government infrastructure and shared services
(incl. Cloud infrastructure, interoperability framework,
digital identity)
Mainstreaming digital solutions across sectors
Intelligent Transport Systems / Logistics
E-agriculture
E-education
E-health
Additional Areas: ICT industry development (incl. entrepreneurship and skills), Internet of Things
Big Data/Open Data Analytics
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Digital Connectivity (1)
Digital Central Asia and South Asia (Digital CASA)
• Regional approach to connect
Afghanistan and CA countries to
each other and to the global
economy
• Leverage private investment and
know-how through PPPs
• Lower cost of connectivity and ICT
in general
• Improve access to remote and
rural areas within the country
• Create new high-quality
employment in ICT sector
• Increased fiscal revenue and
savings through taxes, transit fees
and rationalized IT spending
• Improve public service delivery
and transparency through egovernment
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Digital Connectivity (2)
“Last Mile” Access in Mongolia
The World Bank financed a US$ 8 million (IDA Grant) to assist
Mongolia in achieving a significant increase in the coverage and use
of ICT services among the rural population.
• Challenging environment to deploy telecom
infrastructure.
• One of the lowest population densities in the world. One
million of its 2.7 million inhabitants live in rural areas
(70% of them are nomadic herders).
• Wide variation in topography (high mountain ranges,
wide plains, and desert).
• Output-based aid (OBA) scheme were adopted:
private operators compete for a subsidy to
extend their coverage to rural areas.
With a Wi-Fi enabled phone, a herder
living in the Arkhanghai Province can now
make appointments in advance of
travelling to the district center where he
usually seeks veterinary services, visits the
doctor, or meets with the district
governor on business.
• All districts have been provided with mobile voice, data
services and a satellite-based network of public
telephones (as of end of 2012).
• 34 districts (10% of all districts) centers have broadband
Internet access.
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Digital Connectivity (3)
European Union Connected Communities Initiative
• Joint WB-EC (DG CONNECT) initiative under the
Connecting Europe Facility (CEF)
• WB providing technical assistance (TA) to a selected
number of EU rural communities (14 projects) in 8
countries (Greece, Bulgaria, Slovenia, Croatia, Italy,
Netherlands, Spain and Portugal)
• Key objective is to facilitate the efficient flow of private
and public investments into broadband connectivity
projects
• TA aimed at helping local communities prepare their
projects for bankability assessment and assist them in
securing financing, including from EIB and EU structural
funds
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Digital Government Platforms (1)
Improvements in Rankings (UN e-Government Surveys)
Countries to which World Bank has provided support (lending
operation, technical assistance, etc.) have improved in international
e-Government rankings.
Sri Lanka
Vietnam
Ghana
Rwanda
Kenya
Armenia
Moldova
Bangladesh
Mongolia
Morocco
Board Approval
Sep-04
Sep-05
Aug-06
Sep-06
Mar-07
Oct-10
Jun-11
Sep-12
Sep-14
expected FY17
* Intensive engagement in Morocco started in FY11 through NLTA.
2005
94
105
133
143
122
106
109
162
93
138
2008
101
91
138
141
122
103
93
142
82
140
2010
111
90
147
148
124
110
80
134
53
126
2012
115
83
145
140
119
94
69
150
76
120
2014
74
99
123
125
119
61
66
148
65
82
Delta
20
6
10
18
3
45
43
14
28
56
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Digital Government Platforms (2)
Government Cloud in Moldova
The World Bank offered US$ 20 million to transform delivery of
selected public services using ICTs under the Moldova Governance
eTransformation Project.
• The project established cloud
computing and shared platforms
(MCloud) for e-Government services.
– Based on interoperability, business
process simplification, and digitization.
• Results include:
– Gov’t Services Portal provides
information on 480+ public services and
has over 1,500 visitors per day.
– 105 electronic services are ready to be
consumed.
– 2,134 people have been trained on ICTs.
– 876 datasets from 47 authorities are
available and more than 300,000 users
have been benefited.
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Digital Government Platforms (3)
e-Tax with PPP in Ghana
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The eGhana project (over US$ 115 million total cost), in which World
Bank provided US$ 86.4 million (twos sets of IDA Credit) sought to
improve e-Government services and develop the ITES industry.
eGhana project: One of the most important components was e-Tax utilizing PPP.
GeGov Platform (PPP scheme)
Total Revenue Integrated
Processing System (TRIPS)
•
Domestic tax processing
(Taxpayer Registration, Refunds,
Case Management, etc)
GeReg
•
•
•
Business registration
Civil marriages
Administration of estates
Newly installed Taxpayer Identification Number (TIN) registration
•
Broaden tax base.
•
Results
•
•
eGhana project also
provided
• Business processes
re-engineering
• Top-notch
soft/hardware
installation
• Training to 2,460
gov’t officials
554,000 new taxpayers registered on line
Increase citizen compliance and government transparency.
Effective data synchronization and record-keeping in tax process.
•
The number of days to register a business; from an average of 2 weeks to 3-5 days
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And many other examples…
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Armenia E-Society and Innovation for Competitiveness Project
Vietnam ICT Development Project
eRwanda
Rwanda Regional Communications Infrastructure Program
Kenya Transparency and Communications Infrastructure
Project
Tanzania Regional Communications Infrastructure Program
eBenin
Afghanistan ICT Sector Development Project
Moldova Governance eTransformation Project
Bangladesh Leveraging ICT Growth, Employment and
Governance Project
Mongolia SMART Government
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Digital Development Partnership (DDP)
•
The World Bank is launching a Digital Development Partnership
(DDP) to help operationalize the 2016 World Development Report
on Digital Dividends and to offer a platform for digital innovation
and development financing.
•
The DDP will bring public and private sector partners together to
catalyze support to developing countries in the articulation and
implementation of digital development strategies and plans.
•
This partnership will make digital solutions available to
developing countries with an emphasis on the following work
areas:
•
•
•
•
•
Data and Indicators
Digital Economy Enabling Environment
Internet Access for All
Digital Government
Mainstreaming Digital Innovation
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DDP Partnering Opportunities
• As digital progress is fast and primarily private sector driven, DDP draws on
best practices from client countries and the private sector. To this end, DDP is
bringing together traditional partners from the development community and
leading global IT firms.
• The World Bank is keen to seek inputs from potential clients, partners, and
donors on strategic orientation and priority topics to be covered in the DDP
work program.
• Potential donors are encouraged to consider a contribution to the Multidonor
Trust Fund (MDTF). Launch donors will be able to shape the DDP and be
involved in its implementation.
• A Charter will set out the day-to-day working arrangements of the partnership.
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Connectivity + Complements  Digital Dividends
Digital development strategies need to be broader
than ICT strategies
• Regulations that allow firms to connect and compete
• Skills that leverage technology
• Institutions that are accountable and capable
Digital technologies add two important dimensions
• They amplify the impact of good (and bad) policies  Failure to reform
means falling further behind
• While not a short-cut to development, they can be an accelerator, by raising
the quality of complements
The payoff
• Increasing digital dividends:
Faster growth, more jobs and better services
www.worldbank.org/wdr2016
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www.worldbank.org/wdr2016
THANK YOU!
Juan Navas-Sabater
[email protected]