Transcript Hotel Investment Considerations

Opportunities in
Hospitality & Tourism (China)
(中国)酒店及旅游业之机遇
Mr. Sunny SUN
VP Development (China)
Langham Hotels International
Executive Summary
Part I
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National Economy
Growth and Outlook
Liquidity in hotel industry
Part II
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China – General Picture
China - Future
Room Supply Growth
Challenges and Opportunities
Forecast/ Outlook
China’s Economy Gen Picture
据新华社１１月１５日消息，世界银行１５日发布的《东亚经济半年报》继
续维持其对中国经济增长的预测。预计２００７年中国国内生产总值（ＧＤ
Ｐ）增长率将达到１１．３％，２００８年会放缓至１０．８％。
世界银行在今年９月发布的《中国经济季报》中，把对２００７年中国ＧＤ
Ｐ增长预测上调至１１．３％。这是世界银行继５月发布的《中国经济季报》
中将中国ＧＤＰ增长预测由此前的９．６％上调至１０．４％后，再次进行
上调。
根据国家统计局发布的数字，今年前３季度中国ＧＤＰ同比增长１１．５％，
其中一季度增长１１．１％，二季度增长１１．９％，三季度增长１１．５
％。
世界银行最新一期的《东亚经济半年报》说，尽管美国次级债危机和国际油
价上涨加大了全球经济的下行风险，但东亚经济体有望在２００８年继续保
持强劲增长。
Source: 财经杂志，新闻动态 [2007-11-15]
China’s Economic Outlook
Key indicators
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Real GDP growth (%)
11.5
10.0
9.3
8.4
8.3
8.3
Consumer price inflation (%; av)
4.5
3.0
3.5
3.3
3.5
3.6
Budget balance (% of GDP)
0.2
0.1
-0.1
-0.4
-0.3
-0.4
Current-account balance (% of GDP)
9.7
8.6
8.7
8.2
7.6
6.8
Commercial bank prime rate (%; year-end)
6.7
7.3
7.2
7.2
7.2
7.4
Exchange rate Rmb:US$ (av)
7.61
7.23
6.97
6.70
6.44
6.21
Exchange rate Rmb:¥100 (av)
6.47
6.87
7.24
7.17
7.02
6.77
Source: Country Data, Economic data From the Economist Intelligence Unit, Nov 7th 2007
Lots of IPOs in last 24 mths
Multiple IPOs of Chinese Hotel Companies
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Home Inn on Nasdaq, Oct’06
JinJiang Hotels on HKSEx, Dec’06
Jinling Hotels on SHSEx, Apr’07
Motel 168 to go IPO on Nasdaq late 07 (ML holds
20% )
7-Day likely to go IPO on Nasdaq 08 (US$95
million from three international investors)
A-share IPO for Airlines
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Air China
Lots of Records in 24 mths
Record valuations of Hotel rooms
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Hyatt on the Bund valued at rmb 3.6b or rmb 5.86m/rm
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Land in shanghai bought by Suning for rmb 66K/sqm
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Oct’07 is 6.5%
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China’s economy expected to grow 11.3% in 2007
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Oct’07 is USD27b
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China’s economy expected to grow 11.3% in 2007
Record land price
Record Inflation Rate
Record Economic Growth
Record Trade Surplus
Record Economic Growth
Record Wages and Tighter Labor Supply
Room Supply 2007 and 2008 Forecast
2007
 102
hotels
 34,300 rooms
2008
 98
hotels
 28,00 rooms
* source: Horwath Asia Pacific
Major Events Heat up Room Supply
Good times set to roll on for hotel sector
2007-09-21 11:48:55 Source:Industry Updates
Author:
BBS
The outlook is rosy for the hotel market in Beijing and Shanghai in the next two
years, with the 2008 Beijing Olympics and 2010 Shanghai World Expo just
around the corner, according to consultancy firm Jones Lang LaSalle Hotels.
Andreas Flaig, executive vice-president of Jones Lang LaSalle Hotels, expects the
number of rooms at internationally
branded hotels in Shanghai to
grow 76 percent to 33,000 by 2010, while Beijing's total will
more than double to 27,000 by 2009.
"The international brands are in a race against time to be ready for the 2008
Beijing Olympics and the 2010 World Expo," Flaig said. He expects foreign
operators to considerably boost their presence on the mainland.
About 27,000 branded hotel rooms will be rolled out in Shanghai this year, 8,240
of which will be new, according to Jones Lang LaSalle Hotels research.
Many world-class hotels are in the pipeline for the two cities. A 190-room Four
Seasons hotel will be opened in Shanghai's Pudong District next year, while a
Mandarin Oriental hotel with 203 rooms is also scheduled to open in 2008 in
Beijing's Chaoyang District.
Flaig said the vibrant economy and tourism industry of the two cities is creating
strong demand for the hospitality sector that could be sustained well into the next
decade…….
Over 500 Hotel
575 hotel project under planning
 235,000
rooms
Rising Labour Costs
MARCH 27, 2006
NEWS: ANALYSIS & COMMENTARY
How Rising Wages Are Changing The Game In China
A labor shortage has pay soaring. That is sure to send ripples
around the globe.
For years, Yongjin Group has earned a decent profit selling lamps and
furniture to the likes of Wal-Mart (WMT ), Home Depot (HD ), Target
(TGT ), and Pottery Barn. But lately the company has seen its margins
shrink to 5% -- half what Yongjin made when it opened its factory in the
steamy southern Chinese city of Dongguan 14 years ago. Why? Labor
shortages are forcing the company to boost wages. Last year
salaries surged 40%, to an average of $160 a month, and
Yongjin still can't find enough workers. "This business needs a
lot of labor," says President Sam Lin. "This is a very tough challenge."
Local Groups
Expats or No Expats?
锦江国际洋总裁贝希伦行将离职 诧异未获续约
2006-04-07 04:50:44
来源: 第一财经日报
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本报讯据《金融时报》报道，在执掌锦江国际酒店管理有限公司（600754.SH，下称“锦江国际”）仅两年后，贝希伦(Chris Bac
hran)行将离开。
贝希伦将于月底离开该公司。他表示，迄今为止，他还不清楚自己的合同为何没有续签。锦江国际一位负责人表示：“在不同时
期和不同发展阶段，公司具有不同的目标。”但他没有透露贝希伦的继任者是否还将是一位外籍人士。
出生于夏威夷的贝希伦在亚洲酒店业拥有 20 年的丰富从业经验，他于 2004 年被聘为锦江国际总裁，成为当时中国国有企业中职
位最高的外籍高管。
对锦江国际而言，对贝希伦的任命是其改革战略的亮点之一。锦江国际的战略
包括快速扩张和境外上市等内容。
已在上海证交所上市的锦江国际目前计划在境外上市，并已聘请法国巴黎银行协助安排今年晚些时候在香港上市事宜。但该公司
已决定不再与贝希伦续约。
贝希伦的离开不仅引发了外界对锦江国际未来改革的疑虑，潜在投资者还将关
注贝希伦聘请的其他外籍高管是否还会留在锦江国际。
Tourism Growing Bigger than Ever
In 2006 alone, China had 129 million outbound travelers and
1.3 billion inbound tourists that generated revenues of
around RMB 893.5 billion and provided 10 million jobs.
In the next decade, the industry's annual growth rate is
expected to reach 10.4 %. Revenues from individual tourism is
projected to enjoy an annual growth rate of 9.8 %, with group
tourism projected to grow 10.9 %.
In 2010, the sector will make an even larger contribution to
the nation's economy, making up 8 percent of its gross
domestic product, compared to the current 5.44 %.
In 2020, China is expected to become the world's largest
tourism destination and the fourth-largest source of
travelers.
Outbound Travel Surge
More Chinese are going Overseas
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02-06, the average annual growth rate of Chinese
outbound departures is 22.7 %
07 H1 is 14.04%
Appetite for Overseas Assets
Local Companies eyeing on overseas
expansion
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JinJiang to invest in St Petersburg
Travel Conglomerates holding overseas
assets
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CTS owns hotels in USA
Investing overseas via PE holding
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USD3.0 b in Blackstone which recently bought
Hilton for USD26 b
More Opportunities for
HKG & Macao
More Mainland Tourists visiting HK
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SEP 07 arrivals grew by 22.1% to 1,136,325
10.9% up Y-O-Y
579,826 or 51.0% travelled under the Individual Visit
Scheme (IVS), a Y-O-Y increase of 35.8%
Looks even Rosier for Macao
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Jan-Jun 07 arrivals grew by 21.5% to 14.8 mil (22.99 for
2006 Full)
the total number of hotel rooms expanded 12.5% to 13,222
average hotel occupancy rate stay largely above 73%
largely built on the ongoing development of (MICE)
industries in Macau
Forecast in China Tourism
More Reliance on EU as the Euro appreciates
and Dollar weakens
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More EU pick up in Arrivals and further
weakening of US Arrivals
More Specialized Products such as MICE /
Airport / Boutique Hotels
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in additional to normal / standard hotels
Improve Efficiency in Planning
Outlook for China’s Hotel Industry
Opportunities for Serviced Apartments
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Part of “commercial real estate” by many local groups
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Players such as Vanke, Gemdale, Wanda, Greentown
Easier to market with Hotels/ serv apartments
More Commercial BIG local Real Estate project including hotels as core
components
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High technology requirments for Hotel Planning
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To maximize efficiency and therefore secure ROI
No more “Mickey Mouse” blue print
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Need more high-quality staff for higher productivity and efficiency
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Reduced birth rate and competition from commercial sector are impacting the labor
pool available for hotels
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Improving of Labor Efficiency
Increase of Salary and Perks of skilled staff
More hotel transactions
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More funds entering china hunting good properties
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Foreign funds will acquire smaller groups to speed up expansion or launching
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Major local group such as Petro China, Sinopec, COFCO, etc, all requiring specialists
to maximize returns from Hotel Assets
Smaller groups be M &A targets
Specialized Asset Management for Hotels
Challenges - 1
Labor shortage
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Skilled and Semi-skilled both
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Land price wont fall and the phenomenon of “flour is more
EXPENSIVE than bread” prevails
Increasing land price and other factors of production
Higher and Higher energy + utility costs
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Energy + Utility cost can be as much as 20% of your Revenue
The industrial norm is 12.5% of Revenue
RMB appreciation trend
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Hurt demand from US
EU be better but contingent on the real trend
Steep increase in room supply in most economic cities: esp.
coastal
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Cities like Tianjin and Guangzhou, supply be 150% up next 5 years
Beijing and Shanghai the same
Challenges - 2
Green requirements
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Tougher policies on hotel planning and construction: meaning
cost be UP
Difficult to get sites near the scenic spots such as Jiuzaigou, etc
Project Planning requirements
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Tougher policies too
Eg, Red Light for Kerry’s 85-m tall hotel by west lake
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No more easy grab-and-cash out formula
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Everyone is in now: Garden Inn; Aloft, HI Express, Super 8 …
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More Restrictions on foreign company entering hotel/ real
estates development
More Top Brands entering while intensifying competitions in
economy sector
What’re we getting from Investment?
Look before you put the $
Losing War on Environmental Protection
August 26, 2007
As China Roars, Pollution Reaches Deadly Extremes
By JOSEPH KAHN and JIM YARDLEY
BEIJING, Aug. 25 — No country in history has emerged as a major industrial power without creating a legacy of environmental
damage that can take decades and big dollops of public wealth to undo.
But just as the speed and scale of China’s rise as an economic power have no clear parallel in history, so its pollution problem has
shattered all precedents. Environmental degradation is now so severe, with such stark domestic and international repercussions, that
pollution poses not only a major long-term burden on the Chinese public but also an acute political challenge to the ruling
Communist Party. And it is not clear that China can rein in its own economic juggernaut.
……
The government has numerical targets for reducing emissions and conserving energy.
Export subsidies for polluting industries have been phased out. Different campaigns have
been started to close illegal coal mines and shutter some heavily polluting factories. Major
initiatives are under way to develop clean energy sources like solar and wind power. And
environmental regulation in Beijing, Shanghai and other leading cities has been tightened
ahead of the 2008 Olympics.
……
Opportunities
Dipolarization of star-hotel product development
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Either very GOOD (Park Hyatt or 4 Seasons)
Or you need to be really CHEAP
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Room to increase market share of domestic consumers
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Fueled by more IPOs and continued trend of trade surplus
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Meaning expat will becoming more common
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So no more 5-star Holiday Inn or Howard Johnson
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Boutique/designer-branded
Green/ECO
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Shifting foreign-dominant consumption to domestic-dominant
consumption
More Chinese money going overseas
Foreign Expat Salary slides (in real RMB terms)
More Top Brands entering while intensifying competitions in
economy sector
Growth for themed hotels:
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Restrictions on Real Est. Development
Budget / Economy Hotels – 1
“节约”，即不浪费的意思。而Budget译为 “经济”之意，来源于“预算”、“预算
案”， 意思 是 “划算”、“值得”
星级酒店，服务多是全方位的，但是价格不菲
经济型酒店的出现，给中国居民的出行带来了价廉而且适用的选择
现存市场，国内、国外集团同时竞争、胜负难分
跟高的建造科技要求
2006年在美国纽约马里奥特酒店举办的第28届美国纽约大学国际酒店行业投资会议上，
很多经济型酒店经理讨论了对该行业在美国未来发展的见解与预测。多人认为，有限服
务酒店应该随着现在和今后客人结构与消费习惯的改变而做出服务和管理上的相应调整。
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出生于1965成为有限服务酒店的重要客源。而他们的消费理念与后者相比变化很大。
X新生代更加强调住宿设施的舒适性和高科技功能，这种需求上的变化使得美国有限服务酒店
的经营标准面临调整。而原有的比较简陋的经济型酒店市场已经逐渐萎缩，
人们更加倾向于多付一些钱获得更为舒适的住宿环境。
客源市场的这种变化使得很多酒店集团，如喜达屋国际酒店集团和精品国际酒店集团纷纷尝试
通过创造新的有限服务酒店产品来迎合市场需求。
Budget / Economy Hotels – 2
饭店网络在地域上覆盖面很广（Extensive geographic
coverage of the hotel network）
容易到达（Easily accessible）
具有中央预订系统（Centralised reservation system）
标准化的单元建设和客房格局以及设施（Standardised unit
construction and guest bedroom layout/facilities）
价格基本固定，仅在促销时变动（Fixed, or only
promotionally variable, room rates）
服务相对有限（Relatively limited service）
物有所值（High value-for-money offer）
Budget / Economy Hotels – 3
作者通过分析行业资料和学术文献，遴选出36个关键因素，向各个经济型
酒店的管理者发放问卷，并回收有效问卷239份。根据这些问卷分析后得
出，当前经济型酒店经营要取得成功，其关键因素在于（括号内为评价分
值）：
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物有所值的住宿 value for money accommodation (576);
住宿标准一致 consistent accommodation standards (336);
卫生和干净 hygiene and cleanliness (335);
位置是否便利 convenient locations (199);
质量标准 quality standards (180);
热情迎客 warmth of guest welcome (139);
人员培训 staff training (97);
中央销售/预定系统 central sales/reservation system (95);
服务标准一致 consistent service standards (78);
顾客安全 guest security (14)
Safe with Economy Hotels?
Oversupply in Beijing Olympiad 2008?
08 奥运后北京酒店地产业恐暴跌
来源:经济参考报 时间:2007-5-23 12:50:12 编辑:李升龙
毋庸置疑，2008 年奥运会将给北京酒店业带来巨大收益。但是，也有人担心，奥运会曲终人散后，京城的酒店地产是否会一蹶不振？
上海五合智库总经理邹毅告诉记者，申办奥运成功后，奥运工程项目已经激活了北京经济发展相关领域，2001 年至今，北京酒店地产均价已经
累计增长近 50 个百分点。
邹毅认为，1964 年的东京奥运会和 1988 年的首尔奥运会，推动日本和韩国走向经济强国。如今，2008 年北京奥运会同样也为中国的经济发展带
来新的机遇。我国现阶段经济发展与当时的韩国极为相似，但是与韩国相比，中国的经济增长更为稳定，且相对起点更高。由于韩元在首尔举
办奥运会前已经有较大的涨幅，相比而言，人民币升值滞后对中国的经济投资贡献度显然要更高。而汇率上升首先会激发外资进入房地产行
业，所以相对首尔，北京的经济起点更高，奥运会的助力更大，酒店市场自然会延续火热的势头。
回顾历届奥运会举办城市的房地产市场，雅典、悉尼、巴塞罗那和亚特兰大都因为举办奥
运会而获得赛后短期的房价上涨，但在奥运过后的两三年内房价均出现不同程度的下跌，
其中以巴塞罗那房价跌幅最大，可见奥运过后的低谷效应对房价以及酒店市场的影响还是
存在的。
五合国际总顾问刘力博士向记者表示，从北京目前的情况来看，由于 2006 年底到 2008 年奥运会期间北京将暂停新建筑项目，所以新酒店客房都
会在奥运前集中供应，鉴于酒店建设周期至少在两到三年，所以赛后两年不会出现新增的星级酒店供应。参照此前北京旅游局公布的奥运游客
预测，结合其他奥运举办城市的赛后游客数量增幅，奥运会后北京游客数量将持续增长，其中国外游客增幅最大，年增幅保持在 30%至 60%之
间，并且将在 2010 年达到游客高峰。
数据显示，奥运会前至少将有 9800 间新增酒店客房投入北京市场，虽然增量集中在四星级以上的高档品牌酒店，但由于北京高档酒店的增幅一
直低于入境游客增长速度，且 2008 年到 2010 年不再会有新增四星级以上酒店供应，所以北京酒店的入住率会在 2009 年提前达到高点，保守入
住率预计在 72%以上，酒店收益率达到峰值，且四星级以上酒店收益率会明显高于低档酒店。
刘力博士分析后认为，2009 年后，中国将迎来长达半年的 2010 年世博会，北京作为中国的窗口城市和信息中心，自然仍将受到全世界的瞩目。
酒店市场的收益率在小幅下降后会再次回升，对于开发企业而言，虽然高星级酒店市场收益率诱人，但由于其门槛也相对高，在进入壁垒较大
的情况下，企业可以考虑北京周边城市的高档酒店市场，如天津、沈阳、青岛等二线城市。
Shanghai’s absolute Prosperity before EXPO 2010?
BIG Groups are
Speeding Up Expansion
国际>商业>新闻
全球最大酒店拟在华快速扩张
英国《金融时报》弗朗西斯科•格雷拉(Francesco Guerrera)纽约报道
2006 年 6 月 6 日星期二
全 球 最 大 的 酒 店 运 营 商 洲 际 酒 店 集 团 (InterContinental Hotels Group) 首 席 执 行 官 高 蓄 来 (Andrew
Cosslett)表示，该公司将紧随中国基础设施建设热潮，在华大举扩张。中国目前的基建状况类似于
当年艾森豪威尔(Eisenhower)总统开发美国中西部的筑路计划。
高蓄来向英国《金融时报》表示，中国政府有关承
诺，推动了洲际酒店集团 2008 年前在华新开设 75 家酒
店的计划。中国拟在未来 15 年内新建公路 8.5 万公里，将中西部贫困地区与全国其它地区
连接在一起。
洲际酒店集团的上述评论，突现中国已成为全球酒店连锁集团的新战场。目前，这些集团在竭力
争 夺 竞 争 激 烈 、 已 经 饱 和 的 西 方 市 场 。 洲 际 酒 店 集 团 在 中 国 拥 有 51 家 酒 店 ， 分 属 其 洲 际
(InterContinental)、假日酒店(Holiday Inn)和皇冠假日(Crowne Plaza)三个品牌。
Boutique and Unique?
Or Really Something Very Special – A Niche