Transcript TOPIC A: Irish Economic History to Independence

TOPIC J:
HOUSING & ENERGY
TCD M.SC.(EPS) – RONAN LYONS – EC8001
IRISH ECONOMIC POLICY ISSUES & CONTEXT
MODULE OUTLINE
Topic Title
EoI Ch
Dates
A
Irish Economic History to Independence
1+
MT1-2
B
Irish Economic History since Independence
1+
MT3-4
C
The Economy & Economic Growth
2, 7
MT5-6
D
Public Finances, Debt & Taxation
3, 4
MT8-9
E
The Labour Market
6
MT10-11
F
Social Justice & Inequality
8
HT1-2
G
Regulation & Competition
5
HT3-4
H
Competitiveness & Trade
9, 11
HT5-6
I
Health & Education
12, 13
HT8-9
J
Natural Resources & Real Estate
10, 14*
HT10-11
READING & DATA
• Economy of Ireland: Ch. 10
• The “Missing” Chapter 14 on housing (by email)
• Other readings
• CBI Consultation Paper 87 and my response to it
TOPIC J: STRUCTURE
Housing & Energy
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
Long-run Motivation
Housing Demand
Housing Supply
Housing & Fiscal Policy
Energy Demand
Energy Supply
IMPORTANCE OF NATURAL CAPITAL
• Economics is about people and how they interact
(social science)
• But it is also about resources – human interactions
subject to constraint of limited resources
• Three main types of resources (stocks of capital):
• Human capital – skills
• Physical capital – including financial capital
• Natural capital – land (and what’s under the land)
COMPONENTS OF NATURAL K
• Natural capital gives at least three different strands
of utility/output
• Location: each location offers a unique bundle of
location-specific amenities
• E.g. access to: employment, coast/green space, transport
facilities, schools, polluting factors, air/water quality…
• Energy: either human (e.g. grain, dairy farming) or
machine energy (e.g. gas oil)
• Minerals: e.g. of cerium, europium, neodymium in
an iPhone
• Currently most of these come from China – tied to certain
locations
LOCATION AS A SERVICE
• The housing market combines two markets of
composite services
• Shelter: size, type, age, quality, energy efficiency of
a dwelling
• Location: as previous slide – access to jobs, schools,
environmental amenities
• Also neighbourhood characteristics, e.g. % with degree, %
native born, unemployment rate … not fixed
• Value of land vs. value of what’s on the land
• Shelter is replicable (mostly – exception of vintage premium)
• Location is not… the source of housing market swings
CONVENTIONAL WISDOM…
“Buy land – they’re not
making it anymore!”
Mark Twain
AMSTERDAM’S HERENGRACHT
World’s only
house price
index tourist!
SOME EVIDENCE FOR RISING PRICES
(AT LEAST SOME OF THE TIME…)
Herengracht house prices, 1650-1950
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
1650
1662
1674
1686
1698
1710
1722
1734
1746
1758
1770
1782
1794
1806
1818
1830
1842
1854
1866
1878
1890
1902
1914
1926
1938
1950
0
1649 = 100 – Source: Ambrose, Eichholtz & Lindenthal (2012)
…ESPECIALLY SINCE WORLD WAR 2
Herengracht house prices, 1650-2010
7000
6000
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
1649 = 100 – Source: Ambrose, Eichholtz & Lindenthal (2012)
2010
1990
1970
1950
1930
1910
1890
1870
1850
1830
1810
1790
1770
1750
1730
1710
1690
1670
1650
0
CORRECTING FOR INFLATION
SUBSTANTIALLY ALTERS THE PICTURE
Inflation-adjusted Herengracht house prices
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
1649 = 100 – Source: Ambrose, Eichholtz & Lindenthal (2012)
2010
1990
1970
1950
1930
1910
1890
1870
1850
1830
1810
1790
1770
1750
1730
1710
1690
1670
1650
0
HOW LONG ARE IRISH MEMORIES?
Real house prices in Dublin, 1900-1994 (1950=100)
200
185% rise
150
166% rise
100
50
24% fall
240% rise
75% fall
53% fall
48% fall
1900
1904
1908
1912
1916
1920
1924
1928
1932
1936
1940
1944
1948
1952
1956
1960
1964
1968
1972
1976
1980
1984
1988
1992
0
Source: My own on-going research
WHAT DETERMINES THE SWINGS?
• Significant real house price appreciation in Dublin
on three occasions 1900-1995
• 1918-1933 (240% in 15yrs), 1943-1948 (166% in 5yrs) and 19601979 (185% in 20yrs)
• Each preceded and followed by significant prices falls:
1900-1917 (75% fall), 1933-1941 (53%), 1948-1957(48%) and
1979-1987 (24%)
• Economics is not “what goes up must come down”
• Economics is about supply and demand
• To understand house price swings, we must understand the
determinants of housing demand and housing supply
TOPIC J: STRUCTURE
Housing & Energy
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
Long-run Motivation
Housing Demand
Housing Supply
Housing & Fiscal Policy
Energy Demand
Energy Supply
HOUSING AS A SERVICE…
• Three main fundamentals for housing
• Affect market and implicit rents
• Typically relatively slow moving
1.Incomes: real incomes, per HH
• Captures female participation, trends in unemployment
2.Demographics: # people, per HH
• Captures longevity, age structure, divorce… but not
migration
3.Supply: real net K stock in housing, per HH
• Not in # units (why?)
• Captures construction but also migration
HOUSING AS A SERVICE…
4.5
€140,000
Slow and steady
convergence of
PPHR from 4 down to
EU average ~2.5
€120,000
€100,000
4.0
3.5
€80,000
3.0
€60,000
2.5
Income (LHS)
2.0
Supply (LHS)
1.5
Demographics
2012
2010
2008
2006
2004
2002
1998
1996
1.0
1994
1992
1990
1988
1986
1984
1982
1976
1974
1972
1970
€0
1980
€20,000
1978
Growing tightness of
supply, relative to
income by late 1990s –
excess supply post-2008
2000
€40,000
MARKET AT LIMITS OF AFFORDABILITY
4.6
National
Dublin
Ex-Dublin
4.4
4.2
4.0
3.8
3.6
3.4
3.2
3.0
2011q4 2012q4 2013q4 2014q1
Average West Dublin rent, as
fraction of av monthly wage
45%
40%
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
2008Q1
2008Q4
2009Q3
2010Q2
2011Q1
2011Q4
2012Q3
2013Q2
2014Q1
4.8
Estimated price-income
ratio
Source: Daft.ie Sentiment Surveys
HOUSING AS AN ASSET…
• In additional to the three fundamentals, asset
consideration also matter
• Housing can be held and resold
• User cost: interest rates, maintenance, expectations
• How to model expectations?
• What does a negative user cost mean? (Risk premium?)
• Credit conditions: best measured as typical FTB
deposit
• For practical reasons, Irish experience is captured using ratio
of mortgage credit to household deposits
HOUSING AS AN ASSET…
One-off shift in credit conditions,
1997-2007
User cost of housing negative for
much of period 1970-2008
200%
30%
180%
25%
160%
20%
140%
User cost (annual, est)
15%
120%
10%
100%
5%
80%
0%
60%
-5%
40%
Credit-deposit ratio
20%
-10%
2010
2006
2002
1998
1994
1990
1986
1982
1978
1974
1970
2010
2006
2002
1998
1994
1990
1986
1982
1978
1974
-15%
1970
0%
UNDERSTANDING THE BUBBLE…
Factors driving house prices, 1975-2012
20%
15%
10%
Residual
5%
Short-run dynamics
Transaction cost
0%
Real interest rate
-5%
Credit conditions
Demographics
-10%
Income
-15%
-20%
19751979
19791987
19871995
19952001
20012007
20072012
Source: Own analysis
THE IMPORTANCE OF LEVERAGE
• The deposit required of
the typical first-time buyer
is a vital indicator
Savings
Minimum
Deposit
House
Price
€20,000
25%
€80,000
• Measure of how much
real economy is multiplied
€20,000
20%
€100,000
€20,000
15%
€133,333
€20,000
10%
€200,000
€20,000
8%
€250,000
€20,000
5%
€400,000
€20,000
2%
€1,000,000
• Where minimum deposit
is small (below 10%),
banks need to rely on
other indicators
• E.g. debt/income ratio
• Central Bank rules (early
2015) on both LTV and LTI
CENTRAL BANK CAPS: STRENGTHS
10%
5%
2014q4
2014q3
-5%
2014q2
0%
2014q1
• User cost/expectations –
even CBI announcement
may have had an effect
• Credit conditions –
minimum LTV will anchor
house prices to real
economy
National
Dublin
Ex-Dublin
2013q4
• Outward shifts in D due to
asset factors is not
15%
2012q4
• E.g. if investment by a
MNC creates 1,000 jobs
Expected change in house
prices in next 12 months
2011q4
• Fundamental demand for
housing is a sign of
economic strength
-10%
-15%
Source: Daft.ie Sentiment Survey
CENTRAL BANK CAPS: ISSUES
• Regulation should reduce a market failure
• LTV caps resolve issue of excess leverage, particularly in
market with (at least partially) adaptive expectations
• What market failure does LTI cap ameliorate?
• Potential un/foreseen consequences of LTI caps
• Interest rate regime: why gross income?
• Energy efficiency: what about sensibly taking on more debt,
for the same income?
• Sprawl: what about non-mortgage costs of housing (e.g.
fuel and time, with greater commute)?
• Agglomeration foregone: many services (including public
services) work better with density
TOPIC J: STRUCTURE
Housing & Energy
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
Long-run Motivation
Housing Demand
Housing Supply
Housing & Fiscal Policy
Energy Demand
Energy Supply
CONTEXT IN DUBLIN
• Since 2008, Dublin
growing by ~10k
households a year
• 9,300 births to first-time
mothers 2008-2013 + nochild households
• Roughly 100k 2011-2020
• Supply since 2011 has
been <2k units/yr
• A growing shortfall –
with sprawl implications
• Demand vs. supply
Annual change, Dublin (est.),
2008-2013
12,000
10,000
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
0
New
households
New
dwellings
WHY IS P>MC IN HOUSING?
• Housing is a market with no obvious scale barriers to
entry – relatively easy to build 1-1000 units
• If this is the case, why do we ever see P>MC in housing?
• Long-run stability of real house prices suggests that typically
we may not
• Two sources of potential barrier to entry
• Geographic
• Regulatory
• Research from the US (Saiz 2010) implies that the
only reason average prices deviate from cost is due
to the combination of these two factors
OPEN QUESTION
• If demand is so strong in
Dublin…
• And no meaningful
oversupply exists…
• Then why is (next to)
nothing being built?
Supply decision is not
about D>S, supply
decision is about P>C
DUBLIN’S GEOGRAPHIC BARRIERS
SAMPLE REGULATORY BARRIERS
Min. dwelling size (m2)
Dublin City Development
Plan, Chapter 15
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
1-bed
Dublin
Ireland
UK
Denmark
France
Spain
2-bed
€/sqm also high in Ireland
“The majority of apartments
in a development must be
dual aspect. … Where
single aspect buildings are
unavoidable, they should
be designed to avoid
exclusively northern
orientation.”
RECAP
• Demand in Dublin area (and in Ireland’s cities more
generally) is strong
• Growing population
• Reflects (healthy) role of urban centres as job creators
• Supply is weak (smaller completions than any point
since 1970s)
• Reflects disparity between revenues (prices/rents) and costs
• “Solving” Ireland’s housing shortage:
• Increase prices, rents – but already high relative to incomes
• Or lower costs
• How can government policy lower building costs?
PARAMETERS IN BUILDING COSTS
1.
2.
3.
4.
Hard parameters (€,#)
Soft parameters (%)
Target size of units
# units per acre
Build cost per sqm
Site cost (if not
residual)
1. Interest rate (+length)
for site, construction
2. Fees (e.g. legal,
professional)
3. Local authority levies
4. Profit margin
5. VAT rate
6. Desired net yield
7. Management margin
Market vs. regulatory
Apply to lettings unit – cf. user cost
SAMPLE PARAMETERS CURRENTLY
• Two-bedroom apartments in Dublin
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Number per acre: 36 [some flexibility – cf. orientation]
Minimum size: 85sqm [little flexibility]
Construction costs: €1,800-€2,000 per sqm
Site costs: ??? [cf. NAMA]
Site/construction interest rate: 6% [market]
Local authority levies: €538/sqm [higher with Luas, etc]
Other fees: 5% [market]
Profit margin: 10%-15% [market]
VAT rate: 13.5% [fixed]
Desired net yield: 5% [market
Management margin: 20% [gives gross yield]
BREAK-EVEN RENTS BY SCENARIO
€2,000
€1,800
€1,600
€1,400
VAT
Profit
€1,200
Fees
€1,000
Levies
Finance
€800
Build
€600
Site
Rent
€400
€200
€0
Rent Rent Baseline €2m
Dub2West Dub Cost
site
Zero WageVat/levyHigher SmallerGreaterSmaller
profit
fall
cut
yield units density+ denser
Source: Own analysis
TARGETS FOR POLICY
• Well-functioning land market: €2m -> 16% of rent*
• Land held for speculative reasons (cf. NAMA)
• Land use: “last use”, not best use – role of taxation
• Levies: 13% of rent*
• Relates back to land/property tax
• What about VAT, ~11% of rent*? The State’s ‘profit margin’
• Costs of finance, fees and profits relatively small:
together about 17% of rent*
• Bulk of action has to be in €/sqm, ~45% of rent*
• Level in Ireland almost 2x levels in Germany, N. Ireland
• Even above with Greater London
HOUSING POLICY PRIORITIES
• Lending
• Caps on per-household borrowing in place
• Greater equity focus – security of repayment, risk-sharing
• Supply
• Focus on break-even rents
• Can we halve per-sqm build costs?
• Social Housing
• Issue of tenure and the low paid: where will those who
cannot afford break-even rent live?
• Two pillars (neither in place): varying income subsidies,
debt-financed public provision of housing
TOPIC J: STRUCTURE
Housing & Energy
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
Long-run Motivation
Housing Demand
Housing Supply
Housing & Fiscal Policy
Energy Demand
Energy Supply
LAND: “LAST USE” NOT “BEST USE”
Dublin Bus core route
map and depots
LAND USE: JOINED-UP TAXATION
DCU
Train
station
Green space
~150 acres
Phoenix Park
Terminus of
X-city Luas
O’Connell St
(1 km)
Back-of-envelope: as industrial land, worth ~€0m –
as residential, worth ~€3,000m
ECONOMICS & THE ENVIRONMENT
• For non-market resources, such as the
environmental or cultural/architectural heritage,
three distinct sources of value
• Value in their direct use (e.g. as tourist attractions)
• Non-use value (what people are willing to pay even if they
don’t use, so future generations have same choice)
• Indirect use value (e.g., the positive spill-over on to property
values)
• “Willingness to pay” here has broad connotation
• What is the opportunity cost of, say, not demolishing Merrion
Square? Fewer people work/live in D2?
WHY DO LAND VALUES VARY?
• Suppose we took the
same property and
moved it around the
country
• Where would its value be
highest? Lowest?
Variation in land values across Ireland
• Differences in land values
• Why these areas? What
economic signals does
that reveal?
• Cf. treatment + control
framework in social
sciences
Source: Own academic research
CASE STUDY: DUBLIN GREEN SPACE
• ESRI 2009 study examined the relationship between
house prices and parks/urban green space
• 3500 acres of green space within Dublin City Council
• Possible health impact of grey-green ratio
• Data: ~10,000 transactions for 2001-2006 period
• “Holding other factors constant” – their model also includes
other factors that may affect the price of houses, such as
size, type, age, local unemployment, etc
• 10% increase in share of green space and parks
near a house [<2km] associated with price increase
of 7-9%
• Additional Phoenix Park premium of 2%
SPATIAL DATA USED IN ESRI STUDY
Urban green space
(CORINE)
Property market
transactions
IRISH LAND VALUES REFLECT RANGE
OF NEARBY (DIS)AMENITIES
Effect of various amenities (from 1km to 100m)
Hospital
Rail track
Train station
Secondary roads
Primary roads
Rivers
Lakes
Coastline
Irish speakers
Av commute (10km)
Agriculture
Unemployment (5pp)
Average size
Area maturity (pre-WW1)
-8%
-4%
0%
4%
8%
12%
Source: Own academic research
LESSONS FROM THE JUBILEE LINE…
• Extended in 1999 in the
East of London
• At a cost of £3.5bn, paid
by all taxpayers
• Public cost but at least
some private benefits
• Increase in land values
near stations of £13.5bn
• If society’s investment lifts
private wealth, shouldn’t
society get some payback?
TIME TO RETHINK LOCAL TAXES?
Traditional view of taxes
• Markets are incomplete
• Taxes are required to
redistribute, and to
provide certain services
• And to reduce activities
that can harm society
• Taxes should be efficient
and progressive…
• But little said about what
should be taxed and by
how much
Potential new view of taxes
• Taxes are the prices of
socially provided services
• Progressiveness and
efficiency still central
• Charged at source and
as % of income
• “Social return on
investment” can be
calculated for a range of
public services
• Do people want more
parks or more schools?
PHOENIX PARK FISCAL POLICY
• Suppose 10,000 homes are close to the Phoenix
Park – each has a value 10% higher than without
the park
• If average home values in Dublin are €300,000, this means
that the Phoenix Park has created an additional €300m
(€30,000 x 10,000) in wealth
• If that wealth is all private, then it is not clear why
public monies would be spent on its upkeep
• But if a tax on real estate wealth (e.g. property tax
or land tax) captured some of this annually, a link is
created between costs and benefits
HIGHER PROPERTY TAXES, ANYONE?
• The current rate of local
property tax is 0.18%
• This means Phoenix Park
generates €540,000 in
revenues for Dublin’s local
authorities
• So, if €0.5m was spent a year
on the Park, there is still a
“social profit”
• But what if property tax were
similar to U.S. rates, say 1%?
• A similar analysis of Ireland’s monuments (castles,
churches, historic houses) suggests property wealth
effect of €3.6bn – 0.18% of that is €6.5m
TOPIC J: STRUCTURE
Housing & Energy
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
Long-run Motivation
Housing Demand
Housing Supply
Housing & Fiscal Policy
Energy Demand
Energy Supply
ECONOMIC CONTEXT OF ENERGY
• Production function typically written:
• Y = f(A,K,L)
• At least worth extending to:
• Y = f(A,K,L,N)
• Where interaction of A and N reflect energy technologies
• Some production functions include E, energy, as
separate input
FINAL FORAY INTO ECONOMIC
HISTORY!
• For most of human history, energy strongly linked to
weather and climate
• Cf. harvest to feed humans, horses, cows, etc.
• Limited means of storing energy or redistributing it
across time
• E.g. of potatoes and pigs
• Use of fossil fuels (first coal, then oil and gas) a “oneshot game” to develop new “A” which will give
renewable/limitless energy to enjoy high(er)
standard of living
• Technically need not be limitless – due consumption net of
maintenance must not lead to depletion
CONCEPT OF RESOURCE SECURITY
• Security of a standard of
living
• Food security (e.g. CAP)
• Energy security
(increasingly important)
• Hence source of conflicts
• Cf. clean air, water – also
resources to secure
access is required for a
modern standard of living
Treaty of Rome (1962),
establishing CAP
RELEVANCE OF ENERGY SECURITY
ENERGY CONSUMPTION, BY SECTOR
Source: SEAI
MAIN DEMAND USES: ELECTRICITY
• Three main demand uses for energy
• Electricity
• Heating
• Transport
• Electricity
• About 1/3 of energy usage
• Dates back originally to demand for lighting, early 20thC
• Ardnacrusha (1920s) a somewhat exceptional example of
State investment
MAIN DEMAND USES: HEATING
• Heating
• Also about 1/3 of energy usage – nearly half of this is
residential, the remainder industry, services and agriculture
• Relatively high demand, vs. other countries
•
•
•
•
Tradition of open fires (hence coal and peat usage)
Peak demand in winter (not summer)
Larger homes on average
Lack of district heating initiatives
• Huge scope for improvement
• Home built in 2010 uses about 30% of average home
• How will CBI lending limits affect efficiency of housing stock?
(New housing vs. improvements)
INTERACTION BETWEEN ENERGY,
HOUSING & CAPITAL MARKETS
MAIN DEMAND USES: TRANSPORT
• Final third of energy usage relates to transport
• Huge growth in last generation
• Trebling of economic output 1990-2007 saw roughly unitelastic increase in demand for transport
• From 0.8m cars to 1.8m cars
• Cf. “Fundamental Law of Road Congestion”
• Importance of accurately pricing road space
• Also huge growth in aviation services
• In particular Ryanair
• Again, unique circumstances for Ireland (island), lack of
train network
DECLINE OF IRELAND’S RAIL
NETWORK…
Importance of:
(1) substitutes,
(2) density
TOPIC J: STRUCTURE
Housing & Energy
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
Long-run Motivation
Housing Demand
Housing Supply
Housing & Fiscal Policy
Energy Demand
Energy Supply
RATIONALE FOR STATE INVOLVEMENT
• Energy market and supply-side is dominated by
state involvement and regulation
• Reason #1: economies of scale
• Traditionally, direct provision through State-owned
companies – ESB, Bord Gais (and Bord na Mona)
• EU rules on internal markets for energy, mid-1990s
• No natural monopoly in energy creation or provision
• State-owned transmission networks allowed – a clear case
of natural monopolies
• Now, oligopolies rather than monopolies in provision
• Three main players in Irish market: Electric Ireland, Ervia and
SSE Eirtricity
UK’S “BIG SIX” OLIGOPOLY
Under what circumstances will pricing be close to marginal
cost in this market?
EXTERNALITIES & PUBLIC GOODS
• Rationale #2: energy sector contributes most to
Ireland’s Greenhouse Gases (GHGs)
• Externalities of climate change, as well as other forms of
pollution and environmental damage
• Carbon tax/pricing in EU
• Rationale #3: public good benefits of secure energy
supply
• Impact of energy uncertainty on economic activity,
employment
• Ireland imports 85% of its energy
ENERGY USAGE BY SECTOR
100
90
80
70
Renew
60
Peat
50
Coal
40
Gas
30
Oil
20
10
0
Electricity
Heating
Transport
SECURITY REVISITED
• Ireland is fourth most import-dependent energy
consumer in the EU
• Ireland’s oil is imported mostly from North Sea
• Required to have 90 day supplies at all times – DCENR
estimates actual reserves of two years
• What about gas?
• 14% produced domestically – most of rest imported via
pipeline from North Sea
• Corrib and Clare gas production due to come on stream
• Also greater gas storage facilities
• But in general, Europe dependent on Russian gas…
• Two-way dependence: ~50% of Russian budget revenues
SWITCHING TO SUSTAINABLE ENERGY
• Recall “one-shot game” post-Industrial Revolution
• Five main forms of sustainable energy currently
• Hydro – well developed, few large-potential sites remain
• Solar – unlikely at current technology to be viable in Ireland
• Wind – rapidly developing, Ireland well place… but issue
around security/timing of supply
• Tidal/wave – some potential in Ireland but technology
remains underdeveloped
• Challenges larger for heating, transport – more
difficult to use centralised energy
• Role for battery technology
• Cf. Luas/DART vs. private cars
OTHER ISSUES
• Risk reduction through interconnection
• Island connected to UK through Scotland and Wales (latter
opened in 2012)
• Allows ‘energy trade’, both imports and exports, with rest of
Europe… scope for offloading excess wind energy
• Nuclear power: sustainable or not?
•
•
•
•
Political debate – currently banned in Ireland
Cf. Fukushima
Uranium in Canada, Australia (vs. Russia, Middle East)
Fission vs. fusion / scale requirements
• What about fracking?
MARKET OUTCOMES & PRICES
• Among the highest in Europe to the end user
• E.g. electricity in 2012: €23 for 100kWh vs. €15 in France, €18
in UK, €21 in Sweden
• Four potential reasons (in order of importance):
1. Generation – legacy of inefficiencies of State
monopolies? Impact of 2007 Single Electricity Market?
2. Networks – legacy of lack of density, 4x length of power
lines
3. Retail – supplier costs (admin, accounts, services) +
margin
4. PSO Levy – intention of supporting indigenous peat,
renewable energy, €3.57/month for domestic… hugely
contradictory policy
OTHER ENVIRONMENTAL CONCERNS
• Not covered in lectures due to lack of time…
• But well covered in the textbook
• Air – Ireland has an NOx issue
• Water – including quality and flooding risk… but also Irish
Water/water charges
• Waste – EU recycling and landfill targets
• Biodiversity – both ethical and economic dimensions
RECAPPING…
Topic Title
EoI Ch
Dates
A
Irish Economic History to Independence
1+
MT1-2
B
Irish Economic History since Independence
1+
MT3-4
C
The Economy & Economic Growth
2, 7
MT5-6
D
Public Finances, Debt & Taxation
3, 4
MT8-9
E
The Labour Market
6
MT10-11
F
Social Justice & Inequality
8
HT1-2
G
Regulation & Competition
5
HT3-4
H
Competitiveness & Trade
9, 11
HT5-6
I
Health & Education
12, 13
HT8-9
J
Natural Resources & Real Estate
10, 14*
HT10-11
ESSAY & EXAM-STYLE QUESTIONS
1. Why have so few properties been built in Dublin
since 2011, despite strong demand?
2. “The Central Bank rules have ended boom-bust
cycles in the Irish housing market.” Do you agree?
3. Does Ireland’s island status mean consumers must
put up with higher energy prices?