Transcript Global Issues - Future Cities Venue: Beijing - 02-Mar

GLOBAL CITIES
Influence & Change to/from Asian Community
“What is a city, but the people?” Coriolanus – Shakespeare - 1608
March 2013
Gaëtan Siew CEO
Key Points
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
Importance of Cities
Drivers
Development Pathways
Urban World in 2025
Stress on Cities
Lessons
Challenging World – Importance of Cities
World – 600 Cities
600
: Population > 0.75m
2050Cities
= 9 bn
Average
City– :Now
2.50 50%++
m
75% Urban
2012:
21 Mega-cities
> 10.0
m
Cities 66%
world energy
usage
2025
29 Mega-cities
> 10.0 m
Cities :80%
world emissions
Top Urban growth: (Cn, In, US, Ni, Bd, Br)
Belo Horizonte = 2.50 m
Challenging World – Importance of Cities
Challenges
•Rapid Urban Growth
•Pressure on resources ( Energy/Water)
•Capacity to absorb Pollution/Waste
Mumbai = 20.50 m
Challenging World – Importance of Cities
Opportunities
•New business models
•Ability to impact on maximum population
•Targeted
•Smart level of investment
Luanda= 5.2 m
Scale of intervention
•More effective to address resource management
•Water & Energy
•Air & Waste Management
•City level instead regional/national levels
Challenging World – Importance of Cities
Opportunities
Copenhagen = 2,6 m
2011 only electric /H² cars
2025 First carbon neutral capital
Cities impose own policies & regulations
Socio-economic – Environmental
Responsive to infrastructure development
Mitigating effects of pollution
Power and water shortages
Climate change control
Drivers of City Development
•People
•Energy
CREATIVE CITIES
Diversity – Quality of Life
HNWI : Expats
Assets > 1 m $
2011 = 11 m >>> 43 tn $
Drivers of City Development
•People
•Energy
Huge Consumers
•Large Cities
•Prosperous Cities
•Sprawling Cities
ENERGY USAGE FACTORS
•Climate
•Economic activity
•Geography
•Income disparities
•Population
•Urban Design
Amsterdam = 2.3m
Smart City initiative
Energy efficient in EU
Biomass /biogas from waste/sewage
into heat and electricity.
Los Angeles = 17.80m
City Sprawling
Amsterdam = 2.3 m
Drivers of City Development
•Six City Archetypes
Marrakech = 1.06 m
UNDEVELOPED URBAN CENTRES
Marrakech, Belgrade, Panama
UNDER-PRIVILEDGED CROWDED CITIES URBAN POWERHOUSES
Lagos, Manila, Lima
Hong Kong, Singapore, Bangalore
Drivers of City Development
•Six City Archetypes
Buenos Aires = 14.64m
PROSPEROUS COMMUNITIES
Amsterdam,Copenhagen
SPRAWLING METROPOLIS
Paris, Houston
DEVELOPING MEGA-HUBS
Buenos Aires, Hangzhou
Development Pathways
Six Pathways
EMERGING NATIONS
Industrialisation & Modernisation
Slum Proliferation
Urban Decline
Transition to Megacity
Controlled Urbanisation
Late Stage Growth
POPULATION & CONSUMPTION
GROWTH
by 2025
Manila = 20.65m
Development Pathways
Six Pathways
Houston = 6.22m
Urban World 2025
•2010 - 2025
Chongqing= 32.0 m
PROSPEROUS COMMUNITIES
From 127 to 150 nos
Especially Asian cities
Mexico City = 21.2m
SPRAWLING METROPOLIS
Up to 50 nos – Cities richer
Urban World 2025
•2010 - 2025
Bangalore = 8.43 m
Dhaka= 15.41 m
Bangkok = 8.28 m
UNDER-PRIVILEDGED CROWDED CITIES
30 nos – Decreasing as Asia gets richer
UNDEVELOPED URBAN CENTRES
Fast developing & Unpredictable
URBAN POWERHOUSES x 2++
14 nos in China, India
Urban World 2025
•2010 - 2025
660 Cities = 65% GDP >> 30 tn $
440 E Cities = 47% GDP >> 23 tn $
440 E Cities = Annual increase + 10 tn $
•Can they all be fitted in that?
FLOOR SPACE
Cities >> +85% more
= Austria 84 000 km²
E Cities >> 44 000 km² / 80 tn $
84 000 sq.km
Stresses on Cities
UNIVERSAL
•Energy Price
•Adequate Infrastructure Investment
•Public Amenity
FACTORS
•Climate
•Geography
•Economic Status
ENERGY PRICE
•Higher demand
•Fiscal restructuring
•Emission pricing
•Renewable portfolio standards
•Fuel price increase
*E –Cities
( Gov subsidy – Challenge in future)
Top Green Cities
•Reyjavik
•San Francisco
•Malmö
•Vancouver
•Portland
•Curitiba
•Copenhagen
•Stockholm
•Hamburg
•Bogota
Curitiba 1.3m
99.9% green electricity
Energy, green bldgs, transport, air/water quality
3rd largest wind energy park
Clean tech innovation, 90% renewable power
25% public transport, bicycles
70% land recycled – 1.5m trees
50% bicycles - world leader wind energy
40% city = green spaces
Strong port and industrial policies
Air quality, water supplies, 1200 urban spaces
Stresses on Cities
UNIVERSAL
•Energy Price
•Adequate Infrastructure Investment
•Public Amenity
ADEQUATE INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT
•End of life cycles : Cities of 60s & 70s
•Replacement costs
*E-Cities : Finding ways to pay >> Challenge
Stresses on Cities
UNIVERSAL
•Energy Price
•Adequate Infrastructure Investment
•Public Amenity
PUBLIC AMENITY
•Public expectation >> Livability
•Better environmental standards
•Advanced solutions (Ex Low CO2 >> Coal)
New York Hi Line
*Rich Cities: Opposition to infrastructure projects
(Ex Wind farms, roads, airports etc)
Noise – Visually- Pollution
Stresses on Cities
UNIVERSAL
•Energy Price
•Adequate Infrastructure Investment
•Public Amenity
PUBLIC AMENITY
•Art
•A sense of belonging
•A sense of pride
“When the city ceases to be a symbol of art and order,
it acts in a negative fashion.”
Lewis Mumford
Lessons?
Cities = Epicentre of Human Living
Policymakers plans =
Keys to future success/failure
“What is a city but the people.” Coriolanus 1608
Shakespeare (UK)
Shi Shei
Obrigado
Gratias
Merci
Spasiba
Thank you
Shoukran
Gaëtan Siew CEO www.gsiew-gcli.org