Transcript Direct payments

Hvordan ser den kommende reform af den
fælles europæiske landbrugspolitik ud?
Europa-Konference, Vejle, 29. oktober 2010
Ⓒ Olof S.
Lars Hoelgaard, vicegeneraldirektør
Generaldirektoratet for landbrug og udvikling af
landdistrikterne
Europa-Kommissionen
Importance of agriculture in the EU territory
• 13.7 million farms
(70% with less
than 5 ha)
• The agrifood
sector has 17.5
million employees
(7.7% of total
employment)
2
Recent evolution of agricultural input and
output prices
( 2005 = 100 )
135
120
105
90
75
1996
1997
1998
1999 2000
Input prices (nominal) - EU-27
Input prices (deflated) - EU-27
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006 2007
2008
2009
Output prices (nominal) - EU-27
Output prices (deflated) - EU-27
Source: Eurostat
3
EU developments in agricultural income
(agricultural income/AWU in real terms)
EU-15
EU-12
( Index 2000 = 100 )
150
200
140
180
EU-12
130
160
120
140
110
120
EU-15
100
100
90
80
80
60
70
40
60
20
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Source: Eurostat
4
CAP’en p.t. - instrumenter
Income safety net
Adjusted SPS
Income
Markets
Direct payments
Price support/
Quotas reform
GAEC
Competitiveness
& innovation
Environment and
land management
Rural development
Quality of life,
diversification
5
5
Instrumenternes budgetvægt
Markets
Direct payments
Rural
Development
Modulation
6
6
Evolution of CAP share in EU budget…
1992 CAP cost
2007 CAP cost
140
140
120
120
100
100
80
80
60
60
40
40
20
20
0
0
Billion EUR
CAP expenditure
EU budget
Billion EUR
CAP expenditure
EU budget
7
… and alternative views on its cost
CAP cost in 2009
(in absolute terms)
140
60%
120
100
80
CAP cost in 2009
(in relative terms)
50%
41% of EU
budget
40%
30%
60
20%
40
20
10%
0
0%
0.5% of
EU GDP
Billion of euros
CAP expenditure
% of GDP
EU budget
CAP expenditure
All EU public expenditure
Source: European Commission - DG Agriculture and Rural Development
8
CAP reform fra Gul til Grøn WTO Box
40
billion €
EU-12
EU-15
EU-27
30
20
10
0
1993
Market measures
2000
Area/animal payments (coupled payments)
2010
Single Farm Payment (decoupled payments)
9
What are the objectives with the reform?
Viable food
production
Sustainable
management of
natural resources
Balanced territorial
development
• to contribute to
farm income and
limit its variability
• to guarantee the
provision of
public goods
• to support rural
vitality and
employment
• to improve sector
competitiveness
and share in food
chain value-added
• to foster green
growth through
innovation
• to promote
diversification
• to compensate
areas with natural
constraints
• to pursue climate
change mitigation
and adaptation
• to allow social and
structural diversity
in rural areas
Common EU response needed
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Climate change
- Possible impacts on EU agriculture
▲ Floods risk
▲ Hotter and drier summers
▲ Sea levels
▲ Risk crop pests, diseases
▲ Crop, forage yields
▼ Animal health, welfare
▼ Summer rainfall
▲ Winter storms, floods
▲ Length growing season,
yields
▲ Suitable farmland
▲ Pests, diseases risks
▲ Winter rainfall, floods
▼ Summer rainfall
▲ Risk drought, water stress
▲ Soil erosion risk
▲ Yields, range of crops
▼ Water availability
▲ Risk drought, heat spells
▲ Risk soil erosion
▼ Growing season, crop yields
▼ Optimal crop areas
Source: DG Agriculture and Rural Development, based on EEA reports, JRC and MS academic studies
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Average direct payments per potentially
eligible area and beneficiary
Direct payments net ceilings fully phased-in (in 2016)
EUR/ha
EUR/ben.
800
48000
700
40000
600
32000
500
360 € = 2600 kr/ha
400
24000
300
16000
200
8000
100
Latvia
Estonia
Lithuania
Portugal
Romania
Slovakia
EU-12
Poland
Bulgaria
United Kingdom
Sweden
Finland
Spain
Czech Republic
Hungary
Austria
Ireland
EU-27
Luxembourg
EU-15
France
Germany
Slovenia
Denmark
Cyprus
Greece
Italy
Netherlands
Belgium
0
Malta
0
DP net ceilings fully phased-in (EUR/ha)
EU-27 average (EUR/ha)
DP net ceilings fully phased-in (EUR/beneficiary)
Source: European Commission - DG Agriculture and Rural Development
12
Relative situation of agricultural income
in the EU
Agricultural income level
between Member States
(2009)
200
Income gap with the rest
of the economy
(average 2005-2007)
(agricultural income/AWU in real terms EU-27 = 100)
(agricultural income as % of average
income in the total economy)
100%
175
80%
150
125
60%
100
40%
75
50
20%
25
0
0%
EU-15
EU-27
EU-10
EU-15
EU-27
EU-10
Source: European Commission - DG Agriculture and Rural Development, based on Eurostat data
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What policy instruments?
Better targeted to objectives
Direct payments
Based on two pillar structure
Market measures
• Redistribution
• Market orientation
• Redesign
• Streamline and
simplification
• Better targeting
• Improved food
chain functioning
Rural development
• Environment, climate
change and innovation
as guideline themes
• Improved coherence
with other EU policies
• More effective delivery
mechanisms
• Address risk
management
• New distribution criteria
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4c. What policy options?
Option 1
‘Adjusting’
Option 2
‘Balancing’
Option 3
‘Refocusing’
Continue the reform process by introducing
further gradual changes while adjusting the most
pressing shortcomings (e.g. more equity in the
distribution of direct payments)
Capture the opportunity for reform ensuring that
CAP becomes more sustainable and balanced
(between policy objectives, MS and farmers)
through more targeted measures
More fundamental reform focusing entirely on
environmental and climate change objectives
through rural development, moving away from
income support and most market measures
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• More equitable distribution
among MS and among
farmers
• Greening of direct payments
• Capping of payments
• Small farmers
• Gradually phase out
direct payments
Market
measures
• Streamlining and
simplification of
existing measures
• Streamlining and
simplification of existing
measures
• Phase-out most
measures
• Keep disturbance
clause for severe crises
• Continue emphasis on
climate change,
biodiversity, bio energy
and innovation
• Importance of environment,
restructuring and innovation,
local initiatives
• Risk management tools and
income stabilisation tool
• New distribution criteria
• Primarily focus on
measures linked to the
environment and the
delivery of public goods
Option 1
Option 2
‘Balancing’
Option 3
Direct
payments
• More equitable
distribution among MS
and among farmers
Rural
development
What policy options?
‘Adjusting’
‘Refocusing’
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Share of DP and total subsidies
in agricultural income
EU-15
EU-12
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
Share of DP in agricultural income
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
Share of total subsidies in agricultural income
Source: European Commission - DG Agriculture and Rural Development
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Conclusions from Scenar 2020 - II
“Finally, the removal of Pillar 1 payments under the Liberalisation
scenario would also translate into reduced agricultural land use, as
an important source of revenue for farming is removed. Reducing
first pillar payments leads, on the one hand, to intensification of the
use of land in the core production areas to earn a decent living and,
on the other hand, to land abandonment in marginal production
areas, as it becomes unprofitable in these regions.”
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Tidsplan (1)
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Kommunikation 17. november 2010
Forslag – juridiske tekster – juli 2011
Polen – formandskab - 2/2011
Danmark – formandskab - 1/2012
Cypern – formandskab - 2/2012
Irland – formandskab - 1/2013
Litauen – formandskab - 2/2013
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Tidsplan (2)
Budget review
• Kommissionens meddelelse 19. oktober 2010
• Forslag – sommer 2011
• Periode 2 x 5?
• EP
• UK – budgetrabat
• FR – CAP’en
• Beslutning?
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For further information
• The CAP after 2013
http://ec.europa.eu/agriculture/cap-post-2013/index_en.htm
• The Communication on the future of the CAP
http://ec.europa.eu/
• Impact Assessment of the Communication
http://ec.europa.eu/
• Agricultural Policy Analysis and Perspectives
http://ec.europa.eu/agriculture/analysis/perspec/index_en.htm
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