Transcript File - Institute For Healthy Aging

Our Aging
Communities
A. Dean Sherzai
Director of Memory and Aging Center
Director of Research Neurology
Loma Linda University
Unprecedented Phenomenon
• 1930’s less than 5% > 55
• Today 1 in 9 Americans > 65
• >65 more than 36 million
• >65 will outnumber those <5
• >65 are 14% of population
Unprecedented
Phenomenon
• >65 in U.S. more than population of
Canada
• >65 outnumber populations of New
York, London, and Moscow.
• Healthcare issues related to those >65
constitute >80 % of healthcare cost
Unprecedented
Phenomenon
• The first baby boomers became eligible
for early Social Security retirement
benefits in 2008 and for Medicare in
2011
• January 2011 ushered in the first
of
approximately 77 million Baby
Boomers, born from 1946 through 1964
who are surging toward the gates of
retirement.
• The Myth
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Unprecedented
Phenomenon
The latest U.S. Census Bureau brief on data
from the 2010 Census shows seniors
increasing faster than younger populations,
raising the nation's median age to 37.2 in
2010, with seven states having a median age
of 40 or older.
40.3 million Americans > 65, an estimated
13% of the population, according to the U.S.
Census Bureau, expected double to >90
million by 2050
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Unprecedented
Phenomenon
2000 to 2010, the 45 to 64 population grew
31.5% to 81.5 million, and now makes up 26.
4% of U.S. population.
Each yr > 3.5 million Boomers turn 55. This
year # of Americans > 50 have reached 100
million.
This dramatic growth in numbers and
proportions, increased life expectancies, &
active life styles, now enables us to live 20 to
25% of our lives in active retirement.
Unprecedented
Phenomenon
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Fastest-growing segment of population is
“oldest old”—those 80 and over.
Growth rate 2X that of those 65 and over and
almost 4X that for the total population
In U.S., 10% of the older population and will
more than triple from 5.7 million in 2010 to
over 19 million by 2050.
Percent Distribution of the Population Ages 65 and
Older by Race/Ethnicity 2009, 2030, 2050
2009
2030
2050
White alone,
non-Hispanic
80.1
71.2
58.5
Black alone,
non-Hispanic
8.3
9.8
11.2
Hispanic
7.0
12.0
19.8
Asian alone,
non-Hispanic
3.4
5.3
8.4
Other
1.2
1.7
2.1
Source: US Census Bureau, 2009 Population Estimates, National
population Projections, 2008.
Future
• Median age of U.S. 2050 will be >40
• Those >65 will number >90 million
• 2050 “oldest old” will be nearly 20
million, fastest growing segment of
society
• >600,000 centenarians
San Bernardino
Data Dept. of
Finance
Total Population
60+
Non-Minority
Minority
California
38,246,598
5,944,794
3,702,779
2,242,015
San Bernardino
2,095,918
261,389
154,552
106,837
Percentage
5.48%
12.47%
59.13%
40.87%
Cost
•
Using Medicare & Medicaid as surrogates of total cost
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Costs projected to rise rapidly as population ages. Combined
expenditures on these programs alone are projected to reach
almost 15% of America’s gross domestic product (GDP) by 2050.
In comparison, 1970, spending on Social Security and Medicare
totaled only 4% of GDP.
About 70 % of nursing home residents are covered by Medicaid
and the costs of nursing home care are the fastest growing
component of the Medicaid program
Myth
•
•
Average growth in healthcare costs related to aging within just
0.3% in the US., real growth in GDP per head accounted for 2%
Problem is smaller workforce
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