Transcript Internet on Democratization

The Effect Of
Internet on Democratization
Samantha Anderson
Min Woong Choi
Griffin Cohen
Prof. Vreeland
15 Oct 2013
Research Question
Democratization
Internet
Hypothesis
• Internet growth will increase the likelihood
Also:
of
democratization in autocratic regimes
-Democracies should both have more Internet
– Internet
facilitates
communications, both
users
and Internet
growth
domestically and internationally
-In the
years
prior
to democratization,
countries
• Thus,
gives
“people”
more power
should see increasing Internet growth
Arab Spring (2011)
Debate
OpenJ Curve:
Networks
Closed
The Impact
of the
The
A New
WayRegimes:
to Understand
Why Nations
• Globalization’s
effectsRule
on world and politics
Internet
Rise
and on
FallAuthoritarian
Shanthi
Kalathil & Taylor C. Boas
By Ian
Bremmer
Democratization
(1995 – 2008, data from Prof. Vreeland): 25 Total
Nigeria 1999
Taiwan 1996
Niger 2000
Thailand 2008
Kenya 1998
Burundi 2005
*Sierra Leone 1996
Comoros 2004
Pakistan 2008
Kyrgyzstan 2005
Liberia 2006
*Guinea-Bissau 2000
Nepal 2008
Georgia 2004
Senegal 2000
Maldives 2008
Ecuador 2002
Indonesia 1999
Mauritania 2007
Bhutan 2007
*Sierra Leone 1998
Mexico 2000
*Guinea-Bissau 2004
Peru 2001
Serbia and Montenegro 2000
Case Studies
Russia
Tunisia
China
Ukraine
North African
Countries
Methodology
New Variables
Internet Growth per Year
Regime Changes
• Merging
Data Sets
Regime Transition Weighted
• WDI -Year
and Vreeland
Democracy
of transition = 3
-1 Year before = 2
Years1995-2008
before = 1
• Data-2from
-All others = 0
• 25Number
Countries
transition
from Dictatorship
to
of Aggregate
Transitions
per Year
Democracy
Statistical Tests:
Correlation
Regression
Fixed Regression
Graphs (two-way, quadratic, and simple bar graphs)
Do File: Merging Datasets
Do File: New Variables
Internet and New Variables
Preliminary Results
Preliminary Results
Internet Users Effect
on Democracy
Internet Users Effect on
Democracy (Quadratic Fit)
5
Number of
Democratizations per year
4
3
2
1
Internet Users Growth For
World per Year
Internet Growth per
Years Before
Democratization
All
Other
Years
2 years
prior
1 year
prior
Year of
Effect of Internet
Growth Rate on
Nearing a
Democratization
Effect of Regime type
on Internet Growth
Rate
Dictatorship
Democracy
Internet Growth Variable
Internet Growth
Internet Growth
Effect of Regime type
on Number of
Internet Users
Democracy
Dictatorship
Future Research
• Region-specific analysis
• Data when Democracies fall and become
Dictatorships
• Control for other variables besides GDP
Implications
Effect of Internet on Democratization
(If proves robust…)
•China
•Globalization
•Countries looking for Democratization should
focus on Internet growth
•Dictatorships should try to suppress
communications and Internet
Comments? Questions?