Transcript Internet on Democratization

The Effect Of
The Internet on Democratization
Samantha Anderson
Min Woong Choi
Griffin O. Cohen
Prof. James Vreeland
03 Dec 2013
Research Question
Democratization
Internet
Arab Spring (2011)
Hypothesis
• We also
predict
following:
•Internet
growth
will the
increase
the likelihood of democratization
Why?
• Democracies should both have more proportional
Internet
users
and Internet
growth and the share of
–The Internet
facilitates
communications
information, both domestically and internationally
•Thus,
gives
the “people”
more leveragecountries
• In the
years
prior
to democratization,
should see a “build-up” effect of Internet growth,
increasing each year prior to democratization
Debate
Previous studies:
- Cross section of data (Kedzie 1997)
- Pooled, static data
- Limited number of years (Best & Wade 2009)
- Endogeneity Debate:
- Does regime impact Internet?
- Helen Milner (2005)
- Democracies undoubtedly have more Internet users
than autocracies
Argument
Democratization
Likelihoodi,t
=
(Political State of Countryi,t) x
[(Internet Growthi,t-2) + (Internet
Growthi,t-1) + (Internet Growthi,t)]
Democratization
1995 – 2008: data from “Extreme Bounds of Democracy”
(2013), 25 Total
Niger
Mexico
Case Studies
Tunisia
China
Mexico
Niger
Middle East
Methodology
New
Variables
• Data
from 1995-2008
- Internet Growth per year (difference [logged], percent)
• -3,013
country-year
observations
Regime
Changes
Transition Lagged Effect
• -190Regime
countries
- 3 years before democratization
• 25 countries transition from autocracy to
Statistical
Tests:
democracy
-
Correlation
Regression (logistic, random effects, fixed effects,
dynamic)
Graphs (two-way, quadratic, and descriptive data)
Lagged effect analysis
Descriptive Data (Internet era against counterfactual era)
Variables
• Independent: Internet growth (difference,
logged)
• Dependent: Regime (democracy or autocracy)
• Control Variables:
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
GDP (per Capita, percentage growth)
Urban Population
Oil Net Exports
Muslim Population (in 1980)
Freedom of Speech
Social Globalization
Political Globalization
Correlations
Fractional
Linear
Polynomial
Internet
InternetUsers
UsersGrowth
Growth
Effect
Effecton
onDemocracy
Democracy
(logged)
The Survival of Democracy
• Dynamic Tests: Logistic, Conditional Fixed-Effects
Logistic, Regression
• GDP Annual Growth: Significant across all tests
• Internet variables, GDP per Capita (2005 US$):
Not Significant
• Implications: Przeworski et al. (2000) found that GDP per
Capita would predict survival of democracy, but their
study stopped at 1990
• Thus, perhaps a shift has occurred and regimes must
“perform” well as people have more leverage in today’s
world
Democracy is More Likely in Countries
with High Internet Growth
• Pooled, static tests: Random Effects, Fixed
Effects
• Internet growth (percentage growth,
difference logged): Significant across all tests
• Internet users per 100 persons: Not significant
Descriptive Data
Internet Users by
Regime
Dictatorship
Dictatorship
Democracy
Internet Users
Growth by
Democracy
Regime
Democratization
• Dynamic Tests: Logistic and Random Effects
• Internet Users Percentage Growth: Not
Significant
• GDP (per Capita, annual growth): Not Significant
• Internet Users Difference, logged: Significant
across all models
• Implication: The number of people with access
to the Internet matters, not the percentage
growth
“Build-Up” Effect
Internet Growth Difference (Log)
Internet Growth per Years before
Democratization by Regime Type
4.2
4.1
4
3.9
3.8
3.7
3.6
3.5
3.4
3.3
3.2
Int. Users Growth
(Democratization)
Int. Users Growth
(NonDemocratization)
3
2
1
0
Years before Democratization
“Build-Up” Effect
Internet Growth Difference (Log)
Internet Growth Difference Between Regime
Type by Years before Democratization
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
Difference
0.1
0
3
2
1
0
Years before Democratization
“Build-Up” Effect: Implications
• Democratization is a process—it does not
occur overnight
• Endogeneity debate: Increased Internet prior
to democratization suggests the Internet
influences regime
Analysis by Era
Ratio of Democracy to Non-Democracy Regime by
Era
Ratio
1.35
0.75
Pre-Internet (1981-1994)
Internet Era (1995-2008)
Implications
Government
People
Huntington’s Wave Theory
World War II to 1960s
19th century to 1942
1970s to 1990s
New Global Divide?
• Fourth Wave: Beginning with Arab Spring in
2011
• Possible pullback?
– Expect increase of democracy but also a
strengthening of autocracies
• Autocracies may tighten restrictions
• Dictator’s Dilemna
Questions?