Transcript No Slide Title - World Agroforestry Centre

Macroeconomic Policy, Labor Migration,
and Land Use in Sumatra
Dr. Nu Nu San, Dr. Erwidodo, Dr. Sherman Robinson, Dr. Thomas P. Tomich
Policy Issues
•
Deforestation, soil degradation, and other
resource depletion
•
Interregional migration, and land
transformation
•
Technology and institutional disparities
•
Tradeoffs among regional growth, equity and
sustainability
Driving forces of deforestation in Sumatra
Population growth
Infrastructure development
External land claims
1. Transmigration
2. Spontaneous
migration
Increased land scarcity
Insecurity of traditional
land rights
Relatively higher
plantation commodity
prices
Increased forest clearing
to establish tree crop plantations
and agroforestry
INTERNATIONAL
FOOD
POLICY
RESEARCH
INSTITUTE
Native and migrant population of Sumatra
in 1990 by Province
Sumatra
gross
regional domestic
product
at current
price,
Sumatra
gross
regional
domestic
product
at current
from
1985
to
1995
price, from 1985 to 1995
12,000,000
40000
Land transformation in Sumatra
35000
10,000,000
30000
Tree Crops
Total population
8,000,000
Native
million
Billion Rp.
25000
20000
15000
Logging concession
from other islands
6,000,000
Primary forest
4,000,000
10000
Illegal logging
Logged-over forest
Secondary forest
Slash and burn
Annual crops
2,000,000
5000
-
0
1985
1990
Agriculture
Forestry
Mining
1995
Manufacturing
Aceh
North
sumatra
West
Sumatra
Riau
Jambi
South
Sumatra
Bengkulu
Lampung
Shifting cultivation
Others
Research Objectives
•
To develop a research framework to analyze the impact of
macroeconomic policies and structural adjustment programs on the
regional economy, labor movement, land use change, and
deforestation.
•
To study the tradeoffs among growth, equity, and sustainability
of regional development.
Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model structure,
illustrating the circular flow of income in the economy
Factor income
Factor
market
Saving
Taxes
Intermed.
Suppliers
Exports
Households
Govt.
Goods
market
Investment
Foreign
savings
Imports
Rest of the world
Conceptual structure of research method
Social accounting matrix
- Labor, land, and capital for
production activities
- Production of goods and services
- Import and export
- Household and institutional incomes
- Consumption of goods and services
-Taxes, subsidies and tariffs
- Saving and investment
Functional forms
Exogenous shock
Economy in equilibrium
Supply = Demand
-Product markets
-Factor markets
-Foreign exchange market
Policy change
New equilibrium
adjusted for a potential
policy regime
Expected contribution of this research
•
•
Development of an analytical tool
to examine the effects of alternative
macroeconomic and sectoral
policies on land use change.
Analysis of the impact of changes
in sectoral policies (e.g., fertilizer
price policy), regarding their
impact on growth, equity, and
sustainability.
Funded by :
•Danish
International
Development
Agency
•Asian
Development
Bank
•International
Food
Policy
Research
Institute