Transcript More on Korea and on South Asia After Independence

More on Korea
and
on South Asia
After Independence
April 2, 2013
Review
How did Park Chung Hee stimulate the economic
growth that led to the prosperous Korea we see
today?
What happened in Kwangju in May, 1980?
Why was Chun’s coup of 1980 so much more
bloody than Park’s coup of 1961?
How did South Korea finally become democratic?
Democracy achieved
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Popular demonstrations in Seoul in 1987 forced the government
to allow elections for president. Chun’s comrade-in-arms wins.
1992 Kim Young Sam, a former pro-democracy leader, joins
Chun’s party, wins the presidency, and then arrests Chun.
1997 Kim Dae Jung, a man both Park and Chun had tried to kill,
is elected president.
2008--Conservatives regain power. This is a second peaceful
transfer of power. (Park Chung Hee’s daughter won an election
for the conservatives in 2012)
How did this happen? Land reform and economic development
eroded the influence of the landed elite and created a prosperous
middle class, providing a foundation for democracy.
Developmental dictatorship dug its own grave.
The rise in religious affiliation
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1916 530,000 out of 15-17 million 3%
1940 1 million out of 23.5 million
4%
1965 3.5 million out of 28.2 mil.
12%
1985 17.2 million out of 41 mil.
42%
Achieving a majority religious population
1995 22.5 million out of 44.5 mil. 50.7%
2004
Gallup Poll
2005 25 million out of 47 million
30% Christian, 24% Buddhist
53.5%
53.1%
Authoritarianism
and economic growth
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Is authoritarianism necessary for rapid economic development?
Some say yes, because that is the only way capital can be
concentrated in areas where it is most needed.
Others say no, since authoritarian rulers will not be told when they
have made mistakes.
One thing is clear: authoritarianism may work in early economic
development, but it becomes dysfunctional when the economy
grows too complex for the government to manage.
The other Korea
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The Democratic People’s Republic of Korea:
political stability--the Kim family (Kim Il Sung, Kim Jung Il, and now
Kim Jung Eun) have ruled since 1948.
economic problems--strong recovery from the war into the early
1970s (thanks partially to hydroelectric plants built by the
Japanese), but since then the problems of a strictly controlled
economy and a reliance on import substitution (because of the
ideology of Chuch’e--self-reliance) has stalled the economy. In the
later 1990s, maybe as many as 2 million people died from
starvation or malnutrition.
Comparing North
and South Korea
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South Korea is now democratic. North Korea has a totalitarian
government.
South Korea has an economic environment that encourages
competition and engagement with the rest of the world.
North Korea has a state-controlled economy and aims to be selfsufficient.
South Korea has a per capita GNP ($32,400) 18 times larger than
that of North Korea ($1,800).
North Korea has atomic bombs. South Korea doesn’t.
The economies of
the ROK and the DPRK
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South Korea (ROK)
Export-oriented economy
Canada)
$32,400 per capita GDP
North Korea (DPRK)
import-substitution economy
$1,800 per capita GDP
13th largest in the world (just ahead of
between the EU and Israel.
ahead of Burma, behind Bangladesh.
South Asia
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India
a democratic country with an economy that has
been growing rapidly since the early 1990s, and has also seen
a rise in Hindu nationalism.
Sri Lanka richest, best-educated country in South Asia but
had to endure violence between Sinhalese and Tamils for over
30 years (rival ethnic nationalisms with religious overtones).
Pakistan
off-and-on again democracy with little economic
growth. Product of Muslim nationalism
Bangladesh like Pakistan, off-and-on again democracy Even
poorer than Pakistan.Product of Bengali nationalism
Partition
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In August, 1947, British India was split into Hindu India and Muslim
Pakistan. It was a violent separation, with a million or so killed.
Hindus fled to India while Muslims fled to Pakistan. (This is an
example of communal violence.) (p. 200)
Kashmir was (and still is) caught in the middle, claimed by India
because its ruler in 1947 was Hindu but also claimed by Pakistan
because the majority of the population is Muslim. (p. 201)
East Pakistan broke off from West Pakistan in 1971 (they had been
separated by 1,500 kilometers of Indian territory). It was not a
peaceful separation but led to the establishment of the new Muslim
country of Bangladesh. (p. 209)
Politics in modern South Asia
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India has managed to preserve a democratic form of government
(except for 1975-77, when Indira Gandhi ruled as a dictator. She
called an election in 1977, and stepped down when she lost.) (p.
203)
Both Pakistan and Bangladesh, on the other hand, have endured
an alternation of civilian and military governments. Democracy is
still quite fragile in both countries. (p. 210-212)
Can we explain that difference? Here is a hint:
The business leaders of British India stayed mostly in India.
Politics in Pakistan and Bangladesh has been dominated by the
representatives of the traditional elite, usually great landowning
families.
Important leaders of India
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Gandhi--wanted India to remain a village society. He was
assassinated on Jan. 30, 1948 by a radical Hindu nationalist.
Nehru --he was a democratic socialist who wanted the state to
control the economy--under his rule (1947-1964), economic
growth barely kept up with population growth.
Indira Gandhi, Nehru’s daughter, was elected prime minister as
head of the Congress Party. Served in that post 1966-1977, and
again 1980-84. In 1975 she threw out the constitution and ruled as
a mild dictator. Then she allowed a free election in 1977, lost, and
stepped down.
She was assassinated in 1984 by her Sikh bodyguards.
How has democracy survived in
India?
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India has a per capita GDP of around $3,900/yr. and has only a 75%
literacy rate (Until a decade or so ago, over half of all adult women
were illiterate).
Yet it is a functioning democracy, quite unlike Pakistan and
Bangladesh which have both endured many military coups.
Barrington Moore claims that Gandhi’s campaign against the British,
as well as the British treatment of local merchants, led to a
nationalistic alliance of peasants with the commercial classes,
preventing the fascist coalition from forming. Other give credit to
experience with self-government under British rule.
Also what local industry there was before 1947 was mostly in what
now is India. What is now Pakistan and Bangladesh was an agrarian
economy under the control of rich landlords.
End of Congress Domination
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The Congress Party continues to be the only part with a
national reach. Indira Gandhi was replaced by her son Rajiv
Gandi, but he was assassinated by a Tamil Tiger in 1991. A
few years later his Italian-born widow, Sonia Gandhi, became
the head of the party, though she never assumed the post of
prime minister. Now the general secretary of the party is her
son, the great-grandson of Nehru, Rahul Gandhi.
Congress is challenged by the BJP, a Hindu-nationalist party
whose most extreme elements say that Muslims (over 160
million in India) are not really Indians.
Congress runs the country now, with the BJP as the main
opposition party. Prime Minister is a Sikh member of
Congress
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Economic Growth in
India
Nehru was a socialist who advocated centralized
(government) economic planning and import
substitutionForeign investment was discouraged. Red tape
made even internal investment difficult. The economy grew,
but only a little faster than the population did. (p. 206)
1991 -An economic crisis shocked India into changing
economic strategies. India started courting foreign
investment, reducing red tape for businesses, and
encouraging export-oriented businesses. The economy
began to grow. Since 1992, the GDP grew about 6% a year
through 2002 and has picked up speed in more recent
years, leading to a annual growth of per-capita income of
4% up to 2002, and then a doubling of per capita income
between 2002 and 2009.
India’s Foreign Policy (p. 202)
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1961--used military force to seize Goa, which had been
Portuguese for almost 5 centuries.
1962 fought with China along India’s northeast border.
China won
Fought with Pakistan in 1965 (over Kashmir), in 1971 (over
Bangladesh), and 1999 (again over Kashmir)
2001 Border conflict with Bangladesh.
India is a nuclear power--it has had atomic bombs since
1998 (as has Pakistan). India’s first nuclear test was in
1974.
military governments
• Pakistan 1958-1969, 1977-88, 1999--2007
• Bangladesh 1975-90, 2007--08
• India ---none
• Sri Lanka - none
• Assassinated (or executed) leaders of
governments:
• Pakistan
• India 1
3 (?)
Bangladesh
Sri Lanka
2
1
Women leaders
• India --Indira Gandhi
• Sri Lanka --widow of first prime minister became
prime minister herself (the first in the world) and
then later her daughter became the president.
• Pakistan:
Benazir Bhutto was prime minister
twice, and almost a third time
• Bangladesh:
the widow of one ruler and the
daughter of another alternated as prime minster
between 1991 and 2009.
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Pakistan
founder Jinnah dies in 1948
Constitutional government until 1958, when a general seized
control
1971 After Bangladesh breaks away, Bhutto is elected president.
1973 the military overthrows Bhutto (they execute him in 1978).
1988 General in charge dies in a mysterious plane crash.
1988 Benazir Bhutto wins election, is thrown out by a judge, wins
again in 1993, but loses election in 1997.
1999 General Musharraf seizes power
2007 Benazir Bhutto assassinated while campaigning.
Benazir Bhutto’s husband chosen President and becomes first
elected chief of state to serve a full term (though after 2010 he
handed over much of his power to the Prime Minister, from the
same party.)
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Bangladesh
1970 An East Pakistan-based party wins a majority of
seats in the Parliament. West Pakistan rejects that result,
resulting in civil war that split Pakistan in two.
1971 East Pakistan becomes Bangladesh under Sheikh
Mujib
1975 Sheikh Mujib is assassinated and General Zia seizes
power.
1978 Zia allows free elections.
1981 Zia is assassinated. Another army government takes
over
1990 popular protests lead to democratic elections.
1991 and 2001 Zia’s widow elected prime minister
1996 Sheikh Mujib’s daughter is elected Prime Minister
2007 Both women are jailed for corruption. The army
assumes control but Mujib’s daughter wins Dec, 2008,
election.
Sri Lanka
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1956 Sinhalese is made the national language, offending Tamils.
1959 Prime Minister Bandaranaike is assassinated by a monk.
His wife wins the next election.
1975 Name is changed from Ceylon to Sri Lanka
1983 Tamil rebellion begins.
1994 daughter of Bandaranaike is elected president under a new
constitution, appoints her mother prime minister.
2001 opposition wins control of parliament
2005 opposition wins the presidency. Crushes Tamils in 2009
Roots of violence
• per capita
• Sri Lanka
GDP:
India
Bangladesh
$2,900
$2,000
Pakistan
$6,100
$3,900
• literacy
• 90%
75%
55%
57%
• Could British colonial rule be responsible for the
fact that democracy has been stronger in South
Asia than in China or in most of Southeast
Asia? (Did the French or the Dutch teach
democracy? What about the Japanese?)