Transcript Critical Factors Impacting National Development

International Perspective On
Food Security
Andrew Jacque Ph.D.
Agricultural Economist
Presentation to the AmCham Seminar titled
“Beyond Energy – Inflation, Productivity and Food Security:
Critical Factors Impacting National Development”
Contents





Food Security definition and issues
World Agricultural Outlook
International Agricultural Prices –
Outlook to 2015
Other Domestic Agricultural Issues
Policy Suggestions
Food Security -- Definition

Food security exists when all people, at all
times, have physical and economic access to
sufficient, safe and nutritious food to meet
their dietary needs and food preferences for
an active and healthy life (FAO website) Special
Programme for Food Security
Dimensions of Food Security (1)

food availability





Analysis of Food supply at the national level
Major components include production plus imports
adjusted for exports, planting and feed use, and
waste
Food availability (national level) is not a huge issue at
national level in T&T
Rising import bill import and lack of sufficiency in
staples often trhe focus of attention
Most public concerns lie here and most responses
stress increasing the level of self sufficiency with little
regard for other dimensions –
Dimensions of Food Security (2)









food accessibility
Focus on household food consumption
An issue in Trinidad and Tobago given 17% poverty
rate
NB issues here are income and price levels and
household command over resources
nutritional adequacy
Focus on the individual’s quality of intake
An issue in Trinidad and Tobago given evidence of
malnutrition/obesity and lifestyle diseases
Nutritional needs depend on age, sex distribution,
level of activity of individuals/households.
Quality of intake influenced by income, prices,
education…..
World Agricultural Outlook (1)




World food production forecast to continue growing
but at a slower pace than in the past decade
World consumption expected to increase --- driven in
part by rising per capita incomes in developing
countries and growing trade
In developing countries increasing production of
livestock and production of grains for feed rather
than food
In developed countries trend towards food attributes
and quality
World Agricultural Outlook (2)



Trade flows will increasingly involve processed
products due to new technologies, improved
distribution methods, continuing globalisation, and
improvements in the agri-food chain
Trade barriers and regulatory controls (environmental
and food safety) will continue to affect Agricultural
commodity trade flows
Increased production of bio-fuels made attractive by
prolonged high energy prices -- corn and sugar cane
(ethanol production)  impacts to exports of
corn….possibly sugar.
World Agricultural Outlook (3)




The risk of animal diseases such as Avian Flu have
the potential to negatively affect World meat trade
Economic Developments in Brazil, China, India can
influence world agricultural markets
Outcome of the Doha Development Agenda of WTO
trade negotiations (tariff reductions, export subsidies,
domestic support, special/sensitive products)
Weather related production shocks
International Price Outlook

Projections in Agricultural Outlook 2006-2015:



The Organisation for Economic Cooperation and
Development (OECD) and
Food and Agriculture Organisation of the UN
Projections based on assumptions of:





% increases in Income (Real GDP) in major
countries and all regions of the world
Population growth rates
Exchange rate changes
World Oil prices (falls progressively from a high of
US$56 in 2006)
Commodity Subsidy levels
International Prices – Outlook to 2015 (FAO/OECD)


Rice, Maize and Wheat
Projections are variations from average prices in the base period (2000-2004)
Index Number-- Base Year=2000-04
160.0
140.0
120.0
100.0
WHEAT
80.0
COARSE GRAINS
RICE
60.0
40.0
20.0
0.0
Avg
0004
05
06
07
08
09
10
Year
11
12
13
14
15
International Prices – Outlook to 2015 (FAO/OECD)

Index Number - Base Year=2000-04

Vegetable oils, Oilseeds, Oil seed meals
Projections are variations from average prices in the base period (2000-2004)
140.0
120.0
100.0
OILSEEDS
80.0
OILSEED MEALS
60.0
VEGETABLE OILS
40.0
20.0
0.0
Avg 05
0004
06
07
08
09
10
Year
11
12
13
14
15
International Prices – Outlook to 2015 (FAO/OECD)

Index Number- Base Year=2000-04

Raw Sugar
Projections are variations from average prices in the base period (2000-2004)
250.0
200.0
150.0
SUGAR, Raw
100.0
50.0
0.0
Avg 05
0004
06
07
08
09
10
Year
11
12
13
14
15
Index Number - Base Year= 2000-04
International Prices – Outlook to 2015 (FAO/OECD)
160.0
140.0
120.0
100.0
BUTTER
80.0
CHEESE
60.0
WHOLE MILK POWDER
40.0
20.0
0.0
Avg 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
0004
Year
12 13 14 15
International Prices – Outlook to 2015 (FAO/OECD)

Index Number -- Base Year 2000-04

Beef and Veal; Pig Meat; Poultry Meat; Sheep Meat
Projections are variations from average prices in the base period (2000-2004)
140.0
120.0
100.0
BEEF AND VEAL
80.0
PIG MEAT
60.0
POULTRY MEAT
40.0
SHEEP MEAT
20.0
0.0
Avg 05
0004
06
07
08
09
10
Year
11
12
13
14
15
Trinidad and Tobago Inflation Profile
Inflation – Impact of the Food Component
Changes in Retail Price Index in Trinidad & Tobago
600
Clothing & Footwear
500
Food
400
All items
300
200
100
Ja
n06
Ja
n05
Ja
n04
Ja
n03
Ja
n02
Ja
n01
Ja
n00
Ja
n99
Ja
n98
Ja
n97
Ja
n96
Ja
n95
0
Ja
n94
September 1993=100
Housing
Inflation Rates 20yrs – All-Items & Food


Food component leads the All-Items Index for past 20 years
Food component greatly influences movements in the ALL-Items index
25.0
15.0
All Items
Food
10.0
5.0
Year
20
05
20
03
20
01
19
99
19
97
19
95
19
93
19
91
19
89
0.0
19
87
Inflation Rate (%)
20.0
20
05
20
03
20
01
19
99
19
97
19
95
19
93
19
91
19
89
19
87
19
85
19
83
19
81
19
79
19
77
19
75
19
73
19
71
500
19
69
700
19
67
19
65
19
63
19
61
1961=100
Food production groups
Food production 1961-2005
Cereals
600
Fruit
Chicken
Vegetables
400
300
200
100
0
Per Capita Calorie Consumption & GDP
Per Capita Calorie consum ption and Per Capita GDP, 1965-2003
GDP/capita
8000
Calories/capita/day
3200
7500
3000
7000
2800
6500
6000
2600
5500
2400
5000
2200
4500
4000
65
19
2000
67
19
69
19
71
19
73
19
75
19
77
19
79
19
81
19
83
19
85
19
GDP
87
19
89
19
91
19
Calories
93
19
95
19
97
19
99
19
01
20
03
20
Value of food import as a share of total merchandise import
20
03
20
00
19
97
19
94
19
91
19
88
19
85
19
82
19
79
19
76
19
73
19
70
19
67
`
19
64
19
61
20%
18%
16%
14%
12%
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
Domestic Agricultural Issues (1)

Macro-Economy –Dutch Disease



Importance of agric sector for reducing
boom-bust swings
Severity of the bust (falling export
revenues) is conditioned by events in the
boom.
CSME

Potential source of supply and outinvestment and avenues to relieve labour
constraint
Domestic Agricultural Issues (2)







Numerous small farm sizes
Perennial shortages of labour
Labour intensive technology
Low average incomes -- Agriculture provides lowest
wages and returns (GDP/worker) of all sectors
Where returns are high acreages tend to be very
small (vegetables and risks high (price
fluctuations/natural disasters)
Few systems (agri-food chains) in which farmers
have adequate power (need for information and
networks that more directly link farmers to buyers)
Availability of export markets – where vegetable
prices are higher – Barbados, Antigua etc.
Policy Suggestions



Producer-consumer conflict is a major crossroad for agriculture
Policies to address rising food prices should
minimise negative impacts to domestic
agriculture sector
Need to address constraints in the agricultural
sector:




low average returns;
labour shortages  R&D, technology, increase in
farm sizes; higher valued commodities
Can CSME (outward investment) help?
Must improve productivity and
competitiveness and address Food safety
issues
END