Transcript presentation file

Panel Discussion on the ICP
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Organizer— Alan Heston
Moderator—Fred Vogel
Speaker—Yuri Dikhanov
Panel
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Kim Zieschang
Bart Van Ark
Prasada Rao
Robert Lipsey
Peter Hill
Erwin Diewert
Alan Heston
Panel Discussion--overview
Heston—Opening comments
Vogel--Overview
Dikhanov—Methodology review
Vogel—Lessons learned, future analysis
Panel—Brief presentation by panel members
All—Open discussion
Dikhanov & Vogel—Respond to discussion
Heston—Closing comments
Global Purchasing Power
Parities and Real
Expenditures.
Overview-Major outcomes
Fred Vogel
International Comparison Program
Panel Discussion--overview
Heston—Opening comments
Vogel--Overview
Dikhanov—Methodology review
Vogel—Lessons learned, future analysis
Panel—Brief presentation by panel members
All—Open discussion
Dikhanov & Vogel—Respond to discussion
Heston—Closing comments
The ICP Governance
ICP under auspices
of the UN Statistical
Commission
ICP Executive Board
Global Office
World Bank
Technical Advisory
Group
Africa
Asia
West Asia
LAC
CIS
(48 countries)
(23 countries)
11 Countries
(10 countries)
(10 countries)
Ring
18 Countries
Eurostat/
OECD
(46 countries)
1000
50
34
108
776
50
34
108
740
Ring
198
20
104
22
91
75
47
16
79
7
45
36
W. Asia
223
19
78
17
85
112
65
19
70
7
25
56
Latin
America
356
41
128
21
95
144
55
19
49
7
51
34
OECD Eurostat
Total consumption
General Government
Construction
Equipment
CIS
Food and non - alcoholic beverages
Alcoholic beverages and tobacco
Clothing and footwear
Housing and utilities
Furnishing and household equipment
Health
Transportation
Communication
Recreation and Culture
Education
Restaurants*
Misc. .goods and services
Asia
Category
Africa
Scope and Coverage of Data Collection
Number of products/specifications
422
72
319
64
460
244
365
81
336
5
117
136
147
8
136
18
77
51
33
8
54
10
14
22
353
21
162
12
83
69
29
12
59
11
20
31
281
30
132
35
124
162
96
28
96
7
60
44
578
50
34
108
862
50
34
108
1095
50
34
108
2621
The size of the world economy
Xrates, WDI, New benchmark
ICP 2005
GDP @PPP
Previous
2005 GDP
@PPP
GDP
@ Market
exchange
rates
World---146 countries
54,975
59,712
44,306
High income: OECD
31,422
31,726
33,342
964
1,264
486
10,971
16,367
4,221
CIS
2,269
2,171
970
South America*
2,698
2,911
1,411
West Asia
1,158
932
588
GDP 2005 ($ billions)
Africa*
Asia and Pacific*
* Excludes exporting countries.
Note: Regional totals do not include all ICP participants.
Reasons new PPPs differ from previous data
based on extrapolations from earlier benchmarks
• More countries included in the 2005 ICP Round
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– China first time — India first time since 1985
– More African countries.
New methodology for housing, government, linking
regions
Data quality improved due to better statistical capacity
of countries.
Products priced differed from 1993 to 2005 ICP
Rounds.
System of National Account (SNA) changed from SNA
68 to SNA 93 in many countries.
Previously extrapolated data were at GDP level, while
new PPPs are computed at individual product/basic
heading level.
Global Purchasing Power
Parities and Real
Expenditures.
Lessons learned
Analysis needed
Fred Vogel
International Comparison Program
Lesson Learned-Analysis
Needed
• National accounts need improving—
start earlier on that effort
• Are 155 basic headings needed?
• Can countries do what is asked for
details such as (NPISH), own
consumption, narcotics----?
Lessons learned--Questions
• There is a limit to what countries can
do at one time—construction,
equipment, gov’t in 2006
• Can number of products be reduced?
• Can a subset of “influential” products
be identified?
• Can more flexibility i.e. coding of price
determining characteristics be
implemented?
Lessons Learned- Analysis
needed
• ICP and Eurostat-OECD comparisons need to
be more similar
– Use of SPDs
– Harmonize government, equipment, (const?)
• Determine methodology for productivity
adjustments, housing, and employ in all
regions.
• Critically review construction
• Representativity—a representative product is
representative of the economy and has a
representative price (???) can it be used?
– Additional coding in SPD/PS be used instead?
Lessons Learned- Analysis
Needed
• Ring—process needs to be evaluated
• Can a core ring list be subset of regional
lists?
– Can more price determining characteristics be
obtained during data collection of regional data?
– Can these be used to identify core products to
become the ring list?
– Can/should the Eurostat-OECD also use the
SPD/PS?
• Can/should equipment, construction,
government be harmonized between the ICP
and Eurostat-OECD-CIS?
Major Events
 December 17, 2007
 Preliminary results for GDP, Consumption, Government, and
Investment
 February 26, 2008—web based report
 Final data Tables for 15 categories of the GDP
 May 2008:
 The ICP final report in printed form and results in data base
format downloadable into excel files
 Summary of major findings
 Technical notes describing methodology
 Annexes with history of the ICP, governance, additional
technical material about combining regions, glossary, and
references
 Finalize ICP Handbook
 Finalize data access procedures
www.worldbank.org/data/icp
More information on the International
Comparison Program can be found on the
ICP website:
www.worldbank.org/data/ICP