Transcript The current financial and economic crisis

The current financial and economic crisis:
Statistical initiatives of the E(S)CB
Daniela Schackis
European Central Bank – DG Statistics
OECD Short-Term Economic Statistics Expert Group
(STESEG); Paris, 14-15 September 2009
The financial crisis and STS
1
• The financial and economic crisis has heightend the
importance of statistics for monetary and economic
analysis and financial stability
• … and has increased the attention devoted to short-term
economic indicators in monitoring the crisis.
• Producing monetary and financial statistics is a key
responsibility of the ESCB.
• The supply of statistics requires taking an active, forwardlooking role to meeting future user needs, as well as
continuous prioritisation to keep the overall costs and
burden to a minimum.
E(S)CB initiatives underway or in preparation
2
AIM: strengthening the information basis for the ECB’s
role in monetary policy and financial stability and
contributing to more transparent financial markets by:
1.
implementing statistics covering all financial (sub-)
sectors, markets and instruments, incl. developing more
micro-databases
2.
capturing key interlinkages, particularly with the real
economy, by further enhancing the euro area accounts:
including housing and other produced assets, timeliness
90 days
3.
consistently recording the impact of the crisis on fiscal
data
4.
fostering cooperation and information sharing (ESCB,
ESS, IMF, BIS, CEBS, industry associations)
Better information from all financial
(sub-) sectors
3
•
Monetary and financial statistics: further advancing
timeliness for MFI interest rate statistics, providing
more breakdowns of MFI balance sheet statistics (e.g.
loans by industry, securitised and collateralised loans)
and new data on credit lines
•
Regular compilation of statistics on Financial Vehicle
Corporations engaged in securitisation transactions and
MFI securitisation (publication expected in 2010)
•
New statistics on assets and liabilities of investment
funds – including hedge funds and real estate funds (first
publication planned in Nov 2009)
•
New statistics on Insurance Corporations and Pension
Funds (still based on data available in Member States)
Better information from all markets and
on instruments (I)
•
Further development of the Centralised Securities
Database (contains 5.2 million instruments,
processes daily 2 million prices), e.g. to include
credit ratings
•
Looking through Asset-Backed Securities:
integrating micro data on structured securities from
European Securitisation Forum, the CSDB and the
ESCB List of Financial Vehicle Corporations
•
Micro-data on loans: possible elaboration of central
and private credit registers
4
Better information from all markets and
on instruments (II)
•
Development of (very detailed) securities holding
statistics with residency and sub-sector
classification of holders, perhaps singling out
Large and Complex Banking Groups and possibly
security by security
•
Promoting the development of a standard
electronic data sheet for each security issued and
making such data available through a public
database
5
Better information across sectors
6
•
Further enhancing the quarterly integrated financial
and non-financial euro area accounts as a
comprehensive and consistent overview of
(interlinkages between) financial and real
developments
•
Addressing requirements for micro data on
households’ and corporate finance, including Small and
Medium Enterprises (SMEs); first SME survey results
expected
in
autumn
2009
(with
European
Commission)
•
ESCB assists Eurostat and National Statistical
Institutes in the statistical recording of various
government support measures, through the CMFB
Better information at global level
7
Cooperation with IMF and BIS and, to a lesser extent,
Eurostat, OECD, UN and World Bank, to address certain
data gaps at the international level, particularly
concerning the assessment of macro-financial risks and
systemic vulnerabilities, e.g.
• Ongoing work to better monitor global credit risk
transfers: notably enhancing regular BIS statistics on
credit default swaps (CDS)
• The recently published BIS, ECB and IMF ‘Handbook
on Securities Statistics’ part I on debt securities issues,
addresses a need for more extensive, comparable
securities data
• Compilation of timely world aggregates (e.g. world
quarterly GDP after 60 days) with regional
breakdowns
Short-term economic statistics and the
current crisis (I)
• Main uses:
– ECB is user of short-term statistics (not compiler)
– Price stability primary objective of ECB’s monetary policy
– Short-term statistics used for economic analysis assessing
the risks to price stability
• Key requirements:
– Reliable and timely results for the euro area and its (main)
member countries; sufficient degree of detail
– Harmonised methodology, collection, aggregation and
adjustment
– Most important indicators (incl. HICP, GDP, industrial
production, retail trade) covered by PEEIs
8
Short-term economic statistics and the
current crisis (II)
STS indicators gained importance:
• Monitoring the economic crisis
• Depth and duration of the crisis
• Industries and countries which are more/less affected
• First signs of turning points
Increased importance of requirements:
• Reliability and timeliness
• Coverage and appropriate level of detail
9
Thank you for your attention!
Questions and comments?