Transcript Comparison of GHG mitigation efforts between Annex 1

Markus Amann
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)
Comparison of GHG mitigation efforts
between Annex 1 countries
Objectives
• Impartial, coherent and transparent comparison of
GHG mitigation potentials and costs in Annex 1 countries
– using a multi-disciplinary systems approach,
– based on publicly available data,
– taking into account co-benefits on air pollution,
– independent assessment, financed through IIASA’s core funds.
• Results, input data and an interactive calculator freely
available in the public domain:
http://gains.iiasa.ac.at
Methodology
Bottom-up approach:
• all gases and sectors,
• at detailed technical level (several 100 source categories,
300+ mitigation measures, etc.)
• systems approach (integrated perspective covering
demand and supply sectors),
• consistent with UNFCCC 2005 inventories,
• employing exogenous activity projections,
• technical, economic and market potentials (before trading).
Based on earlier work with IIASA’s GAINS (Greenhouse gas –
Air pollution Interactions and Synergies) model
Marginal cost curves for each Party
EU27
Japan
USA
Russia
Interest rate: 20%
An initial implementation
• For largest Annex 1 countries (98% of 1990 emissions),
EU27 presented in aggregate
• Based on activity projections of
IEA World Energy Outlook 2008 and
FAO World Agriculture Perspective
• Key assumptions:
–
–
–
–
–
Only currently available technologies
Natural turnover of capital stock, no premature scrapping
No behavioural changes
Domestic measures only
LULUCF excluded for now
• Initial analysis compiled from publicly available information,
received only limited review by national experts up to now
Baseline GHG emissions projections
for IEA WEO2008 projection
E m is s ions relative to 1990
160%
A us tralia
New Z ealand
140%
C anada
120%
Norw ay
United S tates of A meric a
100%
S w itz erland
J apan
80%
A nnex -I
EU27
60%
Rus s ian Federation
Ukraine
40%
1990
2005
Ye a r
2020
Analysis not completed yet for: Belarus, Croatia, Turkey, Cyprus, Malta
Total costs for GHG mitigation, Annex 1, 2020
for different interest rates (excl. LULUCF)
Total cost (% of GDP2020)
2.0%
20%
4%
1.5%
1.0%
0.5%
0.0%
5%
0%
-5%
-10%
-15%
-20%
-0.5%
Emissions relative to 1990
-25%
Canada
Australia
New Zealand
Japan
Switzerland
Russian Federation
(10%
excl. LULUCF)
America
States of rate,
Unitedinterest
Total cost curves for 2020 (% of GDP)
EU27
Norway
Ukraine
Total cost (share of GDP2020)
AUS NZ CA NO US CH JP EU
RU
0.4%
UKR
0.3%
0.2%
0.1%
0.0%
-0.1%
-0.2%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
-10% -20% -30% -40% -50% -60%
Emissions relative to 1990
Comparison of mitigation efforts
for a 16.5% reduction of total Annex 1 emissions
Efficiency vs. equity
Change Perto 1990 capita
Carbon Costs Costs perprice
% GDP capita
Carbon Costs Costs perprice
% GDP capita
Change Perto 1990 capita
Carbon Costs Costs perprice
% GDP capita
AU
CA
EU
JP
NZ
NO
RU
CH
UKR
US
AU
CA
EU
JP
NZ
NO
RU
CH
UKR
US
Change Perto 1990 capita
AU
CA
EU
JP
NZ
NO
RU
CH
UKR
US
Change Perto 1990 capita
Carbon Costs Costs perprice
% GDP capita
AU
CA
EU
JP
NZ
NO
RU
CH
UKR
US
On-line calculator on the Internet
http://gains.iiasa.ac.at/MEC
Co-benefits on air pollutant emissions
Annex 1, 2020
Air pollution emissions
relative to Baseline 2020
0%
NOx
SO2
PM2.5
-5%
-10%
-15%
5%
0%
-5%
-10%
GHG emissions (relative to 1990)
-15%
The GAINS calculator refers to Annex 1 measures only
Estimates for other countries are available
GHG mitigation cost curves for China, 2020
(GAINS-Asia estimates for 4% interest rate)
90
60
30
0
-30
-60
Air pollution emissions relative to baseline
120
Carbon price (€/t CO2)
100%
1.0%
GHG mitigation costs (% of GDP in 2020)
150
0.8%
0.6%
0.4%
0.2%
0.0%
1
2
3
GHG mitigation potential (Gt CO2eq)
Marginal costs
4
80%
70%
60%
50%
350%
-0.2%
0
90%
350%
300%
250%
200%
GHG emissions relative to 1990
Total costs
300%
250%
200%
GHG emissions relative to 1990
SO2
NOx
PM2.5
Co-benefits on
air pollution
Conclusions
• IIASA’s GAINS analysis:
– Coherent and impartial comparison of mitigation efforts
– Analysis based on publicly available data
– Transparency: Open access to results and all input data:
http://gains.iiasa.ac.at
– Review workshop in May/June 2009
• The analysis quantifies impacts of objective reasons for
differences in mitigation efforts.
• Different equity criteria deliver different rankings of
countries.
• The GAINS calculator provides a practical tool for
comparing mitigation efforts along multiple criteria.