Transcript Long-Run Determinants of Exchange Rate Regimes: A Simple

Long-Run Determinants of
Exchange Rate Regimes: A
Simple Sensitivity Analysis
List of Potential Determinants of Exchange Rate Regimes
(Section IV; Part C)
Noorah Alhasan
Introduction
 Unless indicated otherwise:
 The data are drawn from the IMF’s International Financial
Statistics (IFS).
 They are averages of available data over 1990-99 in
regressions with the end-2000 classification as a dependent
variable.
 And over 1980-89 in regressions with the end-1990
classification as a dependent variable
 The potential determinants of exchange rate regimes
that were included in the analysis are the in the following
slides.
Optimum Currency Area Variables
Trade openness
Ratio of imports plus exports to GDP
Share of trade with the Exports to the largest trading partner as a share of
largest trading partner total exports, from the IMF’s Direction of Trade
Statistics
Economic size
The logarithm of total GNP in US dollars at
purchasing power parity, from the World Bank’s
World Development Indicator (WDI)
Per capita GNP
Total GNP in US dollars at purchasing power parity
in 1999 from the WDI, divided by population
Standard deviation of
terms of trade
From the UNCTAD for non-advanced countries, and
IFS for advanced countries
Fuel exporters
Dummy variable taking the value of 1 if the country
is a major fuel exporter according to the IMF’s
World Economic Outlook database
Capital Openness Variables
Capital controls
(on a 0-4 scale) the sum of four dummy variables
that take the value of one if the country has:
a) Multiple exchange rates
b) Current account restrictions
c) Capital account restrictions
d) Export proceeds surrender requirements
All from Exchange Arrangements and Exchange
Restrictions, IMF
De facto openness to
capital controls
Absolute value of inward and outward flows of
financial assets and liabilities as a ratio to GDP
Emerging markets
Dummy for whether a country is included in the
J. P. Morgan bond index, that is, for whether the
country can issue bonds on international markets
Macroeconomic Variables
Inflation
The logarithm of one plus the
(percent) inflation rate
Reserves
Reserves as a share of imports
Historical and Institutional Variables
Post-1945
independence
Dummy for whether the country became
independent after 1945
Years since
independence
Date of independence minus 1945 when
independent after 1945; zero otherwise
Political instability
On a 0-12 scale; the average of
a) Government stability
b) External conflicts
c) Political violence and internal conflicts
From the International Country Risk Guide (ICRG)
issued by the Political Risk Services Group
Transition countries
Dummy for whether a country is defined as a
transition economy in the IMF’s World Economic
Outlook database