Transcript DG Climate 241012 ETUI presentation

The EU's Climate and
Energy Policy
Manchester, 24 October 2012
Damyana Stoynova
DG Climate Action
European Commission
1
Climate
Action
Outline
• Climate policy challenges
• The EU's key policy instruments until 2020
•
•
•
•
Emissions Trading System
Effort Sharing Decision
Renewable Energy
Energy Efficiency
• 2050 Low-carbon Roadmap
• 2050 Energy Roadmap
• Next Steps
• Review of the ETS auction time profile
• Climate mainstreaming in the next MFF
• Further initiatives
2
Climate
Action
Limiting climate change – a global
challenge
• 2°C goal requires that global emissions are cut by 50%
by 2050 compared to 1990
• EU objective of reducing greenhouse gas emissions by
80-95% by 2050 compared to 1990, in the context of
necessary reductions by developed countries and strong
action by emerging economies
• Need for a low carbon 2050 strategy providing the
framework for the longer term action
• Need to fix intermediary stages towards reaching the
2050 objective
3
Climate
Action
Where does the EU stand now?
• 2010 greenhouse
gas emissions
15.5% below
1990 levels
• EU GDP grew by
more than 40%
during the same
time
• EU on track
towards 20%
emission
reduction by 2020
4
Climate
Action
Where is the rest of the world?
• Concrete emission pledges made by countries
responsible for > 80% of global GHG emissions
• Copenhagen pledges: take halfway to 2020
emissions levels securing chances to stay below 2°C
– 6 to 11 GtCO2e mitigation gap by 2020 to close
• Share of non-Annex I emissions in total emissions
>50% CO2 and >60% including all GHGs (2011)
• Durban roadmap to global agreement in 2015
5
Climate
Action
2020 Climate and Energy
Policy Framework and
Key Instruments
6
Climate
Action
Europe 2020 headline targets for
climate and energy
1. Reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 20%
compared to 1990 as a first step, and move to 30%, if conditions are right.
2. Increase the share of renewable energy to 20%
in gross final energy consumption by 2020.
3. Improve energy efficiency by 20% by 2020.
7
Climate
Action
Emission reduction target (1):
key policy instruments
GHG Target in 2020: -20% compared to 1990
-14% compared to 2005
EU Emissions Trading
System (ETS)
-21% compared to 2005
Non ETS sectors (transport, buildings,
waste, agriculture)
-10% compared to 2005
27 Member State targets
stretching from -20% to +20%
8
Climate
Action
The EU Emissions Trading System
• Single carbon price
across the EU
• Flexibility for EU
companies
• Functioning and liquid
market
• Adequate measures to
address carbon leakage
• Incentives for new
technologies (NER300)
• Using revenues to spur
smart and sustainable
growth and jobs
9
Climate
Action
The Effort Sharing Decision:
not all MS expect meeting their national
non-ETS targets
2020 projections
2020 national target
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
-10%
-20%
-30%
HU UK NL SE PT FR DE FI ES EU DK CZ AT PO BG IT IE BE EE EL CY LU RO LV SI SK LT MT
Current projections show the EU would meet its 2020 target. However, for 13
Member States, the existing policies would not be sufficient to reach their national
target.
10
Climate
Action
Renewables target:
All countries are contributing
•Share of renewable energy (% of total energy use)
2009 performance
2020 national target
50
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
SE LV FI AT PT EE RO DK LT SI ES FR EU BG SK DE PL IT CZ EL HU IE BE CY NL UK LU MT
Climate
Action
11
Energy efficiency target:
Key policy instruments
Diverse set of policies and measures, e.g.
• CO2&cars: 130g/km in 2015, 95g/km in 2020
• Energy efficiency standards: light bulbs, appliances, electric
motors
• Energy labelling: domestic appliances
• Buildings Directive
• Energy Efficiency Directive
Challenges ahead
• Finance: renovation of buildings – link with EU budget
• Structural changes: e.g. urban planning, modal shift
• System changes: e.g. electrification
12
Climate
Action
The Energy Efficiency Directive
• Brings forward legally binding measures to step up
Member States' efforts to use energy more efficiently at all
stages of the energy chain
• Requires MS to set indicative national targets for 2020
• On 4 October the Council formally adopted the Directive,
after the positive vote of the EP on 11 September
• The Directive is expected to enter into force by the end of
2012.
• Then Member States would have 18 months to transpose
and start implementing it (May-June 2014)
13
Climate
Action
2050 Low Carbon
Roadmap
14
Climate
Action
2050 Low-carbon Roadmap
• Identifies cost-effective pathway, with intermediate
milestones
• Identifies key technologies guiding R&D
• Identifies investments needs and benefits
• Identifies opportunities and trade-offs
• Guides EU, national and regional policies
• Gives direction to private sector and private households
for long term investments
15
Climate
Action
A cost-efficient pathway towards 2050
80% domestic
reduction
in 2050 is feasible:
• With currently
available technologies,
• With behavioural
change only induced
through prices
• If all economic sectors
contribute to a varying
degree & pace.
Efficient pathway and
milestones:
• -25% in 2020
• -40% in 2030
• -60% in 2040
100%
100%
80%
Power Sector
80%
Current policy
60%
Residential & Tertiary
60%
Industry
40%
40%
Transport
20%
20%
Non CO2 Agriculture
Non CO2 Other Sectors
0%
2010
2000
1990
Climate
Action
2020
2030
2040
0%
2050
16
2050 Low-carbon Roadmap: Investing
in innovation and fuel savings
Additional domestic investment: € 270 billion annually
during 2010-2050, equivalent to 1.5% of GDP (Total
investment – 19% of GDP in 2009), of which
• Built environment (buildings and appliances): € 75 billion
• Transport (vehicles and infrastructure): € 150 billion
• Power (electricity generation, grid): € 30 billion
Fuel savings: € 175 to 320 billion on average annually during
2010-2050
Making EU economy more energy secure:
• Halves imports of oil and gas compared to today
• Saving € 400 billion of EU oil and gas import bill in 2050,
equivalent to > 3% of today’s GDP
Air quality and health benefits: € 27 billion in 2030 and €
88 billion in 2050
17
Climate
Action
2050 Energy Roadmap
18
Climate
Action
Scenarios explore routes to decarbonisation
of the energy system
Current
trends
scenarios
Decarbonisation
scenarios
.
.
..
..
.
Reference scenario (as of March
2010)
Current Policy Initiatives (as of April
2011)
 40% GHG reduction by 2050
High Energy Efficiency
Diversified Supply Technologies
High RES
Delayed CCS
Low Nuclear
 80% GHG reduction
19
Climate
Action
Energy savings throughout the system
are crucial
2000
1900
1800
Range for
current trends
scenarios
1700
1600
1500
1400
Range
regarding
decarbonisation
scenarios
1300
1200
1100
1000
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Gross energy consumption - range in current trend (REF/CPI) and
decarbonisation scenarios (in Mtoe)
Climate
Action
20
Electricity plays an increasing role
40%
Range
regarding
decarbonisation
scenarios
35%
30%
Range for
current trends
scenarios
25%
20%
15%
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
Share of electricity in current trend and decarbonisation scenarios
of the Energy Roadmap (in % of final energy demand)
Climate
Action
21
Renewables move centre stage –
all fuels can contribute in long-run
2030
75%
50%
50%
25%
25%
0%
0%
RES
Gas
2005
Nuclear Oil
2050
75%
Solid fuels
RES
Gas
Nuclear Oil
Solid fuels
Decarbonisation scenarios - fuel ranges (primary energy
consumption in %)
Climate
Action
22
Next steps
23
Climate
Action
Next steps (1):
Review of the ETS auction time profile
State of the EU carbon market
• Liquid and growing market
• From 2013 the ETS
undergoes substantial
overhaul
• Growing supply, demand
imbalance
• Surplus build-up with the
start of the economic crisis,
accelerated by a large inflow
of international credits
• Surplus expected to increase
rapidly up to 2013, in part
due to regulatory provisions
24
Climate
Action
Review of the ETS auction time profile:
back-loading
• Back-loading: changing the auction time profile during
phase 3 of the ETS
• The 25 July package:
 Draft for a future amendment of the Auctioning
Regulation
 Proposal for a Decision amending the ETS Directive
 SWD on the functioning of the ETS and the impact of
back-loading
• Process: Vote in the Climate Change Committee, scrutiny
by Council and Parliament; Co-decision procedure for the
proposed Decision to amend the ETS Directive.
• Need for discussion on structural measures
25
Climate
Action
Next steps (2):
The next EU budget 2014-2020
• Mainstreaming the climate-related share of the EU budget
will be raised significantly to 20% of the whole EU
budget (at least €200bn for climate-related expenditures)
• Horizon 2020: around 35% of the Horizon 2020 budget
should be climate-related expenditure.
• Cohesion policy: more developed and transition regions
should allocate at least 20% of their ERDF resources to
investment in efficiency and renewables. Less developed
regions would allocate at least 6%.
• Connecting Europe Facility
• Greening of the CAP
26
Climate
Action
Next steps (3):
Further initiatives
• Under negotiation with Council and Parliament
 Monitoring Mechanism Regulation
 Land use, land use change and forestry Decision
 Review of cars and vans regulation
• Under preparation




Carbon Market Report
Review of F-gases regulation
Maritime emissions
Adaptation Strategy
27
Climate
Action