Transcript Fiscal policy in the second half of 2007

www.mfin.sr.gov.yu
Republic of Serbia
Draft 2007 Budget Law
June 2007
Republic of Serbia budget: present situation and
objectives
Present situation
• Real macroeconomic trends and projection till the end of 2007
• Execution of the Republic budget in January – May 2007
• Planned fiscal policy in the second half of 2007
Objectives
• Macroeconomic stability
• Dynamic economic growth
• Higher employment levels and standard of living
Macroeconomic projections for 2007
Gross Domestic Product, bln RSD
2,381.70
Real GDP growth, in %
Exports growth in USD, in %
Imports growth in USD, in %
5.9
26.8
23.7
Current account deficit, as % of GDP
-11.4
Real investment growth, in %
Inflation, end of the year, in %
Employment, in %
21.5
6.5
1
Real average net income growth, in %
13.6
Labor productivity growth, in %
5
Fiscal policy in the second half of 2007
- tax reforms •
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Reducing transfer tax rate from 5% to 2.5%
Transfer tax exemption for acquisition of first apartment
VAT refund for a person acquiring his/her first apartment
Reducing VAT rate for computers from 18% to 8%
Increasing VAT registration threshold from 2 to 4 million dinars
Revoking excise duties for imported soft drinks and fruit juices
Reducing excise duty for coffee
Changing excise and customs duties for tobacco products, in line
with the Action Plan
• Introducing excise duty for autogas
Fiscal policy in the second half of 2007
- public expenditure • Projects agreed within the National Investment Plan
• Constitutionally guaranteed transfers to other level of government
and mandatory social insurance organizations
• Agreed pay rise percentages – education, health, culture
Public revenues and expenditure in 2007
Gross revenues and expenditure by levels of government
mln RSD
Revenues
Expenditure Deficit - Surplus
Republic budget
581,842
595,518
-13,676
Autonomous Province Vojvodina 40,646
40,902
-256
Local self-governments
153,096
152,919
178
Funds total
482,922
478,513
4,410
General Pension and Disability
276,004
Insurance
276,004
0
Pension and
Disability Insurance
for Small Businesses
16,333
11,997
4,337
Pension and
Disability Insurance
for Farmers
20,344
20,327
17
Republic Health Insurance Bureau
143,782
143,870
-88
National Employment Service26,459
26,315
144
TOTAL
-9,345
Consolidated balance, % of GDP
Revenues Expenditure
41.4
41.8
Deficit
-0.4
Republic of Serbia budget in 2006 and 2007
(mln RSD)
2006
Structure in %
2007
Structure in %
Index 2007 /
2006
А) TOTAL REVENUES
499,098
100.0
581,842
100.0
116.6
1. Current revenues
499,098
100.0
581,842
100.0
116.6
1.1 Tax revenues
436,792
87.5
517,298
88.9
118.4
80,503
16.1
88,707
15.2
110.2
1.1.1. Incom e tax
1.1.2. Value Added Tax
225,137
45.1
270,359
46.5
120.1
1.1.3. Excise
81,619
16.4
98,849
17.0
121.1
1.1.4. Custom s duties
45,267
9.1
54,264
9.3
119.9
1.1.5. Other tax revenues
4,266
0.9
5,119
0.9
120.0
62,306
12.5
64,543
11.1
103.6
Б) TOTAL EXPENDITURE
467,622
100.0
595,518
100.0
127.4
1. Current expenditure
434,503
92.9
524,840
88.1
120.8
1.1. Payroll expenses
125,172
26.8
152,904
25.7
122.2
1.2. Acquisition of goods and services
34,397
7.4
42,885
7.2
124.7
1.3. Repaym ent of interests
19,284
4.1
17,411
2.9
90.3
1.4. Subsidies
30,852
6.6
35,509
6.0
115.1
36,002
7.7
55,757
9.4
154.9
128,627
27.5
147,468
24.8
114.6
52,988
11.3
61,644
10.4
116.3
7,181
1.5
11,262
1.9
156.8
33,119
7.1
70,678
11.9
213.4
23,980
5.1
26,286
4.4
109.6
9,139
2.0
44,391
7.5
485.7
1.2. Non-tax revenues
1.5. Transfers to other levels of governm ent
1.6. Transfers to m andatory social insurance
organizations
1.7. Social paym ents from the budget
1.8. Other current expenditure
2. Capital expenditure
2.1. Com m on capital expenditure
2.2. National Investm ent Plan
В) Budget surplus / deficit
31,476
-13,676
-43.4
Repayment of public debt
(mln RSD)
Repayment of principal
of which repayment of principal to national creditors
Old foreign currency savings
Serbia's Economic Recovery Loan
Early repayment of debt to pensioners (General
Pension and Disability Insurance, Pension and Disability
Insurance for Farmers)
Other (National Bank of Serbia and others)
42,161
36,889
21,664
2,500
8,910
3,816
Comparative overview of realized deficit – surplus in
consolidated state sector (as % of GDP)
2006
Serbiа (Proposed 2007)
-0.4
EU 27
-1.7
EU 15
-1.6
EU 12
-1.8
Bulgaria
3.3
Romania
-1.9
Hungary
-9.2
Slovenia
Croatia
Montenegro
Albania
-1.4
-3.0
-0.1
-4.1